Commodities & Futures — November 10, 2026 — Midday Update — Last 12 Hours (Pacific Time)

Market Overview

Commodity markets are broadly under pressure this midday session, with energy leading the decline as U.S. officials signal a de-escalation in tensions with Iran. Oil has slipped to two-month lows, dipping below $90 per barrel for the first time since August, while European natural gas prices have also retreated to one-month lows on reduced geopolitical risk premium. Gold is extending losses, weighed down by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and hawkish commentary from a Federal Reserve official. The dominant theme across markets today is the Iran conflict de-escalation narrative — Secretary of State Rubio's comments that major combat operations are unnecessary, combined with Trump downplaying further strikes, are deflating the war-risk premium that had been embedded in energy and safe-haven assets.

Commodity Spotlight

Energy

🔴 Crude Oil — Prices ease to two-month lows as U.S. officials downplay further Iran strikes; oil dips below $90 for the first time since August after Trump comments fuel Iran peace hopes.

• Price/Level: Below $90 per barrel; two-month low
• Significance: The war-risk premium built into oil prices is unwinding rapidly as diplomatic signals reduce the probability of further military escalation.

🔴 European Natural Gas — Wholesale prices slip to one-month lows, tracking the deflationary pressure from the Iran de-escalation narrative.

• Price/Level: One-month low
• Significance: Lower gas prices ease energy cost pressures for European industry and households, with geopolitical risk the primary driver of the decline.

🟡 US Power/Electricity — EIA projects U.S. electricity consumption will rise to record highs in both 2026 and 2027, driven by surging AI-related demand.

• Price/Level: Not specified
• Significance: Structural demand growth from AI data centers is a long-term bullish signal for power generation fuels including natural gas and uranium.

Metals

🔴 Gold — Prices extend losses following hotter-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller.

• Price/Level: Held near $4,130 earlier; now slumping (exact current level not specified)
• Significance: A firmer inflation print that reinforces a hawkish Fed path is a headwind for non-yielding gold, compounding the retreat from Iran-driven safe-haven demand.

Agriculture

🟡 Food Stamps / Consumer Food Demand — The Trump administration moves to cut food stamp benefits for 6.3 million Americans.

• Price/Level: Not applicable
• Significance: Reduced food assistance for millions of lower-income consumers could dampen retail food demand, with potential downstream effects on agricultural commodity consumption.

Other

🟡 Rare Earths — Myanmar's military-led government is lobbying the U.S. to invest in its rare earths sector, which is currently dominated by China.

• Price/Level: Not specified
• Significance: A potential U.S.-Myanmar rare earths partnership could diversify supply chains away from China, a strategically significant shift for critical minerals markets.

🟡 Candy/Cocoa-Adjacent Manufacturing — Mars announces plans to invest approximately $1.4 billion in U.S. manufacturing in 2027.

• Price/Level: $1.4 billion investment
• Significance: Signals confidence in U.S. consumer demand and domestic supply chains for food manufacturers, though direct commodity price impact is not specified.

Geopolitical & Supply Factors

Iran De-escalation — Energy Risk Premium Deflating
Secretary of State Rubio told G7 allies that major combat operations against Iran are unnecessary given the ongoing U.S. economic campaign, while Trump separately downplayed further strikes. This diplomatic signaling is the primary catalyst for oil's drop below $90 and European gas hitting one-month lows, as traders unwind the conflict risk premium.

Iran Denies Negotiations
Iran's top security official Mohsen Rezaei stated there are currently no negotiations taking place between Iran and the U.S. This contradicts some of the peace-optimism narrative and introduces ambiguity — markets appear to be pricing in de-escalation, but the absence of formal talks is a latent risk.

Human Cost and Shipping Disruption in the Gulf
Reports of vanishing vessels and missing sailors highlight the ongoing physical disruption to maritime trade routes from the Iran conflict. The UAE has also been offering to sell Saudi oil from a supertanker that was attacked in the Gulf, underscoring that supply chain disruptions remain real even as diplomatic rhetoric softens.

U.S. Inflation Data — Hawkish Fed Signal
Hotter-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data, combined with hawkish commentary from Fed Governor Waller, is pressuring gold and reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive stance. This macro backdrop strengthens the dollar and raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.

AI-Driven Power Demand Surge
The EIA's forecast of record U.S. electricity consumption in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI data center growth, represents a structural demand shift for power generation fuels. This is a long-term bullish signal for natural gas and other electricity-generating commodities, even as near-term prices are pressured by geopolitical de-escalation.

COP31 — UN Pressure on Oil Dependence
UN Secretary-General Guterres used the COP31 platform in Antalya, Turkey, to argue that oil dependence is harmful to both the climate and the economy. While this is a policy-level signal rather than an immediate market mover, it reinforces the long-term regulatory and reputational headwinds facing fossil fuel producers.

Myanmar Rare Earths — China Supply Chain Risk
Myanmar is actively courting U.S. investment in its rare earths sector, which China currently dominates. Any meaningful U.S. engagement could alter the global supply picture for critical minerals used in defense, EVs, and electronics.

Commodity Sentiment

Overall Sentiment: Bearish — Geopolitical de-escalation is rapidly deflating the war-risk premium that had been supporting energy and safe-haven assets.

Energy commodities are leading the decline, with oil and European gas both hitting multi-week lows as Iran conflict fears ease. Gold is also under pressure from a macro headwind — firm inflation data reinforcing a hawkish Fed — removing the dual support of geopolitical and monetary safe-haven demand. Agriculture lacks a clear directional catalyst from today's headlines, though the food stamp cuts introduce a modest demand-side uncertainty. The net supply/demand signal is one of easing tightness in energy markets, with diplomatic developments outweighing the still-present physical disruptions in Gulf shipping lanes.

Market Implications

The sharp retreat in oil below $90 is a meaningful disinflationary signal for the broader economy, potentially easing input cost pressures for manufacturers, airlines, and logistics companies. However, the relief may be complicated by the hotter U.S. inflation print, which suggests price pressures remain embedded elsewhere — meaning the Fed is unlikely to pivot dovish even as energy costs ease. Energy stocks and integrated oil majors may face near-term earnings estimate pressure if the oil price decline is sustained.

For metals and mining, the gold selloff reflects a market recalibrating around a higher-for-longer rate environment. Miners with high operating costs and gold-heavy portfolios face a tougher near-term backdrop. On the other hand, the rare earths story — Myanmar lobbying the U.S. — is a longer-term opportunity signal for investors watching critical minerals supply chain diversification plays.

The EIA's record power demand forecast driven by AI is the most structurally significant bullish signal in today's headlines. Investors in natural gas producers, nuclear energy, and power infrastructure stand to benefit from this secular demand trend, even if near-term gas prices are soft due to geopolitical factors. The Mars $1.4 billion U.S. manufacturing investment is a modest positive signal for domestic food supply chain equities heading into 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 🔴 Crude Oil — Dropped below $90 for the first time since August; Iran de-escalation is the primary driver and the move is significant enough to shift inflation expectations.
• 🔴 European Natural Gas — Hit one-month lows alongside oil; geopolitical risk premium is unwinding across the energy complex simultaneously.
• 🔴 Gold — Slumping on hot U.S. inflation data and hawkish Fed signals; safe-haven demand is retreating on two fronts — geopolitical and monetary.
• 🟡 Iran Diplomacy — Rubio's "no major combat needed" comments are market-moving, but Iran's denial of any active negotiations keeps the situation ambiguous and the risk alive.
• 🟡 Gulf Shipping — Physical disruptions (attacked supertankers, missing sailors) persist even as diplomatic rhetoric softens — a disconnect worth watching.
• 🟢 US Power Demand — EIA forecasts record electricity consumption in 2026 and 2027 due to AI; a structural long-term bullish signal for power generation fuels.
• 🟡 Rare Earths — Myanmar actively courting U.S. investment in a China-dominated sector; a strategic supply chain story to monitor for critical minerals investors.
• 🟡 Food Demand — Cuts to food stamps for 6.3 million Americans introduce a modest headwind to retail food commodity demand.
• 🟢 US Manufacturing — Mars's $1.4 billion domestic manufacturing commitment signals confidence in U.S. supply chains and consumer demand through 2027.
• 🟡 COP31 / Energy Transition — UN chief's oil-dependence critique at COP31 reinforces long-term policy headwinds for fossil fuels, even if near-term market impact is limited.

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