Commodities & Futures — November 13, 2026 — Friday Evening — Last 24 Hours (Pacific Time)
Market Overview
Commodity markets closed a turbulent week on a mixed note, with energy and metals pulling in opposite directions against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and shifting macro expectations. Oil posted a three-day winning streak into Friday but still logged a second consecutive weekly decline, as easing fears of direct U.S.-Iran military conflict weighed on the war premium — even as Brent hovered near $96. Gold suffered its worst week since March, languishing near a 13-month low as rising Fed rate hike expectations hammered the precious metal. European natural gas bucked the bearish trend, surging 12% on the week as U.S.-Iran diplomatic hopes collapsed and supply disruption fears intensified. Industrial metals showed divergence: tin backwardation widened sharply on tightening LME stocks, while Goldman Sachs cut its iron ore price target citing weaker Chinese steel demand — though the bank remained bullish on copper's long-term trajectory.
Commodity Spotlight
Energy
🔴 Crude Oil — Oil fell over 2% for the week despite a three-day Friday winning streak, as easing U.S.-Iran conflict fears drained the geopolitical risk premium. Brent hovered near $96.
- Price/Level: Brent near $96
- Significance: The IEA flagged a return to global surplus in Q4 as Gulf exports recover, adding structural downward pressure beyond geopolitics.
🟢 European Natural Gas — TTF prices surged to over one-week highs on Friday, locking in a 12% weekly gain as U.S.-Iran diplomatic hopes collapsed.
- Price/Level: 12% weekly gain; Goldman Sachs sees TTF potentially reaching 150 EUR/MWh in Q1 2027 under a Gulf LNG disruption scenario.
- Significance: The collapse of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran is directly repricing European gas supply risk.
🟡 Venezuela Natural Gas — Venezuela plans to export ~65 million cubic feet per day of additional gas from its Perla field to Colombia by 2028.
- Price/Level: Not specified
- Significance: A modest long-term supply addition for the region, though the 2028 timeline limits near-term market impact.
Metals
🔴 Gold — Spot gold posted its worst week since March, hovering near a 13-month low as rising Fed rate hike expectations crushed demand for the non-yielding metal.
- Price/Level: Near 13-month low; oil at $96 cited as fueling bigger Fed hike bets
- Significance: The combination of a strong dollar environment and hawkish Fed repricing is a classic headwind for gold.
🟢 Tin — LME spot tin backwardation widened sharply, with prompt prices trading at a premium to forward prices as exchange stocks have fallen 60% since June.
- Price/Level: LME stocks down 60% since June
- Significance: A 60% inventory drawdown in under six months signals a genuine physical supply squeeze, not just speculative positioning.
🟢 Copper — Goldman Sachs forecasts LME copper prices reaching $15,600 per ton by December 2027.
- Price/Level: Target: $15,600/ton by December 2027
- Significance: A bullish long-term call from a major bank signals confidence in structural demand, likely tied to energy transition and AI infrastructure.
🔴 Iron Ore — Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 iron ore price forecast to $92 per ton from $96 per ton, citing weaker Chinese steel demand.
- Price/Level: New target: $92/ton (from $96/ton) for 2027
- Significance: Softening Chinese steel appetite is a key bearish signal for the bulk commodity complex.
🟡 Aluminum — The CFTC is planning a pricing overhaul for U.S. aluminum markets, examining current pricing mechanisms.
- Price/Level: Not specified
- Significance: Regulatory reform of aluminum pricing could reshape hedging and contract structures for producers and consumers alike.
Agriculture
🟢 Soybeans — Soybean futures hit a two-week high on the Chicago Board of Trade as traders responded to tighter supply concerns.
- Price/Level: Two-week high
- Significance: Supply tightness in soybeans can quickly feed through to food and feed cost inflation globally.
Other
🔴 Baltic Dry Index — The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk shipping index fell on Friday, ending a seven-session winning streak as capesize rates weakened.
- Price/Level: Not specified
- Significance: A reversal in capesize rates after seven consecutive gains may signal softening demand for bulk commodity transport.
Geopolitical & Supply Factors
U.S.-Iran Tensions & Diplomacy Collapse
The U.S. denied Iran's claim of attacking a radar facility in Bahrain, while President Trump sidelined VP Vance from Iran diplomacy. The breakdown in diplomatic progress has directly fueled European gas prices (+12% weekly) while paradoxically easing oil's war premium as markets interpret the situation as contained rather than escalating.
IEA Surplus Warning
The IEA stated the world oil market will return to surplus in Q4 as Gulf exports recover. This structural oversupply outlook is a key driver of oil's second consecutive weekly decline, capping upside even as geopolitical noise persists.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations
Rising expectations for larger Federal Reserve rate hikes — partly attributed to oil near $96 — are weighing heavily on gold, pushing it to a 13-month low. Higher rates strengthen the dollar and raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Iraq Overland Oil Export Route
Iraq is reviving an overland truck-based oil export route through Syria, with hundreds of tanker trucks queuing near Basra. This represents a supply-side workaround that could modestly increase Iraqi export capacity outside traditional pipeline infrastructure.
U.S. Jones Act Waiver Extended
President Trump extended a 90-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to more freely transport oil and commodities domestically. This eases near-term logistics constraints for U.S. commodity flows.
China Steel Demand Weakness
Goldman Sachs' iron ore price cut is explicitly tied to weaker Chinese steel demand, reinforcing the narrative of a slowing Chinese industrial sector that continues to weigh on bulk commodity markets.
LME Tin Stock Drawdown
Exchange tin inventories have fallen 60% since June, widening backwardation and signaling a physical supply crunch. This is a supply-side story independent of geopolitics.
U.S. Trade Deal Optimism (Canada & Mexico)
Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about securing trade deals with Canada and Mexico. Positive trade outcomes could ease commodity tariff pressures and support cross-border energy and agricultural flows.
BCA Research: Structural Oil Support Remains
BCA Research noted that oil's sell-off has largely removed the war premium, but structural factors — not specified further in the available context — would continue to support prices even with a durable ceasefire.
Commodity Sentiment
Overall Sentiment: Mixed — Energy and agriculture show pockets of strength, but metals and the broader oil complex face meaningful headwinds from macro and supply dynamics.
Gold's worst week since March and iron ore's price target cut reflect a risk-off, high-rate environment that is broadly bearish for metals. Oil is caught between a geopolitical floor and a surplus ceiling, leaving it rangebound with a slight downward weekly bias. The standout bullish story is European natural gas, where supply disruption fears are very real — and Goldman's 150 EUR/MWh scenario for Q1 2027 suggests the market is pricing in meaningful tail risk. Tin's physical squeeze and soybeans' supply tightness add selective bullish signals in industrial metals and agriculture.
Market Implications
Oil hovering near $96 while the Fed is expected to hike more aggressively creates a stagflationary undercurrent — energy costs remain elevated for consumers and businesses, while tighter monetary policy simultaneously pressures growth assets. Energy companies benefit from high crude prices, but airlines, logistics firms, and energy-intensive manufacturers face continued margin compression. The Jones Act waiver extension offers some relief for domestic commodity logistics costs.
The metals picture has direct implications for industrial and tech sectors. Goldman's bullish copper target to $15,600/ton by 2027 is a positive signal for miners and electric vehicle supply chains, while the iron ore downgrade is a headwind for steel producers and construction-linked equities with China exposure. Tin's supply squeeze is worth watching for electronics manufacturers who rely on it for soldering.
For portfolio positioning, the European gas surge to potential 150 EUR/MWh is the most acute near-term risk — it could reignite European inflation and force ECB hawkishness. Gold's continued weakness near 13-month lows may attract value-oriented buyers, but the macro backdrop of rising rate expectations makes a sustained recovery difficult without a clear Fed pivot signal.
Key Takeaways
- 🔴 Crude Oil — Posted a second consecutive weekly decline despite a Friday bounce; the IEA's surplus warning and easing war premium are the dominant bearish forces.
- 🔴 Gold — Worst week since March, near a 13-month low; rising Fed rate hike expectations are the primary culprit.
- 🟢 European Natural Gas — Surged 12% on the week as U.S.-Iran diplomacy collapsed; Goldman sees TTF potentially hitting 150 EUR/MWh in Q1 2027 under disruption scenarios.
- 🟢 Tin — LME stocks down 60% since June; widening backwardation signals a genuine physical supply crunch worth monitoring.
- 🟢 Copper — Goldman targets $15,600/ton by December 2027, a strong long-term bullish call for the energy-transition metal.
- 🔴 Iron Ore — Goldman cuts 2027 price target to $92/ton from $96/ton on weakening Chinese steel demand.
- 🟢 Soybeans — Hit a two-week high on supply tightness; agricultural supply concerns are quietly building.
- 🟡 Aluminum — CFTC planning a pricing overhaul; regulatory change could reshape U.S. aluminum market structure.
- 🔴 Baltic Dry Index — Ended a seven-session winning streak on weaker capesize rates; watch for confirmation of trend reversal.
- 🟡 Iraq Oil Exports — Reviving an overland truck route through Syria adds a modest new export channel outside traditional pipelines.
- 🟡 Jones Act Waiver — 90-day extension eases domestic U.S. commodity shipping constraints; a quiet but practical supply-side relief valve.
- 🟡 U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade — Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimism on trade deals could reduce tariff-related commodity cost pressures if deals materialize.
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