Earnings Reports and Hints — October 28, 2026 — Midday Update — Last 10 Hours (Pacific Time)

Executive Summary

The Q3 2026 earnings season is running decidedly bullish, with the majority of companies reporting actual results delivering beats on at least one metric, and a significant number posting double beats with raised guidance. Standout stock reactions include Vertiv surging 12%+, Flex jumping ~9%, Etsy up 8%, and OppFi climbing 7%, while notable laggards include Adyen sinking 10% on a margin outlook cut, Ontex tumbling 11% to an all-time low, and Dana falling 5.5% on a miss. Key themes dominating the session: data center infrastructure demand driving outsized beats in industrials and power equipment, strong refining margins lifting energy names, and European equities showing a mixed-to-soft picture despite many headline beats.

Earnings Performance Breakdown

Total actual results classified: ~76

Notable Earnings Reports

🟢 Vertiv Holdings — Double Beat + Guidance Raise

• EPS of $2.21, beat by $0.39; revenue also topped estimates
• Stock surged 12%+ in premarket trading
• Data center equipment demand drove a massive upside surprise; full-year guidance upgraded significantly

🟢 Phillips 66 — EPS Beat, Revenue Light

• EPS of $14.08, beat by $2.24 vs. estimate of $11.84; revenue fell short
• Strong refining margins drove the earnings outperformance despite softer top-line results

🟢 HF Sinclair — Double Beat

• EPS of $11.75, beat by $4.08 vs. estimate of $7.67; revenue also topped estimates
• Stock climbed 5%; strong refining margins mirrored Phillips 66's performance

🟢 Flex — Double Beat

• EPS of $1.18, beat by $0.12; revenue topped estimates with a reported 25% revenue surge
• Stock rose nearly 9%; strong demand across segments drove the outsized quarter

🟢 Etsy — Double Beat

• EPS of $1.00, beat by $0.24; revenue topped estimates
• Stock surged 8%; robust marketplace growth exceeded expectations

🟢 Evercore — Double Beat

• EPS of $4.28, beat by $1.75 vs. estimate of $2.53; revenue topped estimates
• Advisory revenue surged 14% year-over-year, a standout result in financial services

🟢 Brinker International — Double Beat

• EPS of $2.77, beat by $0.35; revenue topped estimates
• Stock rose 3%; Chili's brand momentum drove the outperformance

🔴 Adyen — Revenue Beat, Margin Guidance Cut

• Revenue beat on payment volume growth, but full-year margin outlook was cut
• Stock sank 10%; the guidance reduction overshadowed the top-line strength

🔴 Dana Incorporated — Double Miss

• EPS of $0.41, missed by $0.30 vs. estimate of $0.71; revenue topped estimates (mixed)
• Stock fell 5.5%; automotive supplier headwinds weighed heavily

🔴 Lennox International — EPS Miss, Revenue Beat

• EPS of $6.84, missed by $0.52; revenue topped estimates
• Stock tumbled on weak guidance; the forward outlook disappointed despite solid revenues

Sector Analysis

🟢 Energy & Refining — Strong
Phillips 66 (+$2.24 EPS beat), HF Sinclair (+$4.08 EPS beat), and Scorpio Tankers (+$0.27 beat) all delivered outsized results. Strong refining margins are the common thread. OGE Energy also beat by $0.32 on record weather conditions.

🟢 Industrials & Data Center Infrastructure — Very Strong
Vertiv's 12%+ surge headlines a broad beat wave. IDEX beat and raised guidance. Garmin beat by $0.37 and raised guidance. Masco beat and raised guidance. Clean Harbors beat by $0.71. Flex surged 25% in revenue. The data center buildout theme is clearly lifting industrial suppliers.

🟢 Financial Services — Broadly Positive
Evercore beat by $1.75 on advisory revenue surge. Aon beat on revenue growth. Biogen beat by $0.60. Jones Lang LaSalle beat by $0.65. Deutsche Bank rose 3%+ on record inflows. Santander Q3 underlying profit rose 19%. BNP Paribas beat on equities trading surge. Nomura profit rose 13%.

🟢 Consumer & Restaurants — Resilient
Brinker (Chili's) beat by $0.35 and rose 3%. Wingstop beat by $0.04. Chefs' Warehouse beat on strong restaurant demand. Etsy surged 8%.

⚪ Healthcare & Medtech — Mixed
Bausch + Lomb beat by $0.13 and rose 5%. Labcorp beat and raised guidance. Biogen beat and raised guidance floor. Boston Scientific missed EPS by $0.02 and fell 3%+ on weak guidance despite revenue beat. Avantor beat but shares slipped on guidance.

🔴 Automotive — Under Pressure
Dana missed by $0.30 and fell 5.5%. Penske Automotive missed by $0.02 (mixed). Group 1 Automotive missed by $0.44. Mercedes-Benz cars Q3 adjusted profit halved on China weakness. Stellantis rose 4% as losses narrowed, a relative bright spot.

🔴 European Industrials — Spotty
Epiroc fell 5% on revenue miss. KONE fell 3%+ despite higher sales. Ontex tumbled 11% to an all-time low on a guidance cut. Adyen sank 10%. UPM-Kymmene tumbled on profit miss. Fortum fell 3% on nuclear outlook narrowing.

Biggest Movers

Market Implications

The dominant narrative from this earnings window is that the data center and AI infrastructure buildout remains a powerful earnings tailwind. Vertiv's blowout quarter — with a 12%+ stock surge — is the clearest signal yet that demand for power and cooling equipment is not slowing. This theme is echoed across multiple industrials, from Flex's 25% revenue surge to IDEX lifting guidance on surging orders. Investors should expect this theme to continue driving outperformance in the infrastructure supply chain through year-end.

Energy is having a quietly strong quarter. Both Phillips 66 and HF Sinclair delivered massive EPS beats driven by refining margins, and tanker names like Scorpio and Costamare are also beating. This suggests the commodity-linked energy complex is generating significant cash flow even as broader macro concerns linger. The contrast with European industrials — where Adyen, Epiroc, KONE, and Ontex all disappointed — highlights a divergence between U.S. and European earnings momentum.

The guidance picture is the key watchout. Several companies beat on the quarter but saw their stocks fall on forward guidance cuts (Lennox, Boston Scientific, Parsons, Avantor). This pattern — beat the quarter, miss the outlook — is a classic late-cycle signal and suggests analysts may need to continue trimming forward estimates in select sectors. The upcoming reports from Ford, Chipotle, MGM, and Carvana will be critical reads on consumer health.

👉 Vlad's Key Takeaways

• 🟢 Vertiv (VRT) — The data center infrastructure trade is very much alive; a $0.39 EPS beat and 12%+ surge make this the report of the day
• 🟢 HF Sinclair (DINO) — A $4.08 EPS beat confirms refining margins are running exceptionally hot this quarter
• 🟢 Phillips 66 (PSX) — Another refiner crushing EPS estimates ($2.24 beat), though revenue softness is worth monitoring
• 🟢 Evercore (EVR) — Advisory revenue up 14% YoY and a $1.75 EPS beat signal M&A activity is picking up meaningfully
• 🟢 Flex (FLEX) — 25% revenue surge and ~9% stock gain; AI-driven manufacturing demand is accelerating
• 🟢 Etsy (ETSY) — An 8% stock surge on a $0.24 EPS beat suggests the e-commerce platform is finding its footing again
• 🟢 Brinker/Chili's (EAT) — Fast-casual consumer spending remains resilient; $0.35 beat and 3% stock gain
• 🔴 Adyen (ADYEN) — Revenue beats mean nothing if margin guidance disappoints; -10% is a harsh reminder
• 🔴 Dana (DAN) — A $0.30 EPS miss and -5.5% drop underscores ongoing stress in the auto supplier space
• 🔴 Lennox (LII) — Beat the quarter, miss the guidance = stock gets punished; watch for this pattern in HVAC peers
• 🔴 Mercedes-Benz — China exposure is a genuine structural headwind; Q3 adjusted profit halved
• 🟡 Boston Scientific (BSX) — Revenue beat but EPS miss and weak guidance sent shares down 3%+; medtech guidance risk is real
• 🟢 Biogen (BIIB) — Beat by $0.60 and raised guidance floor; a stabilizing story in a challenged biotech landscape
• 🟡 Penske/Group 1 Automotive — Both auto dealers missed or came in mixed; new vehicle margin compression is spreading
• 🟢 Santander — 19% underlying profit growth and reaffirmed targets; European banking is outperforming European industrials
• 🟡 AEP (AEP) — Conflicting reports (beat in one metric, miss in another); utility investors should await full details before acting
• 🔴 Ontex — An 11% plunge to an all-time low on a guidance cut is a red flag for European consumer staples
• 🟢 SK Hynix — AI-driven memory demand is fueling profit beats; a positive read-through for the semiconductor sector
• 🟢 Garmin (GRMN) — Beat by $0.37 and raised guidance; diversified consumer electronics holding up well
• 🟡 Ford (F) — Reports after close today; with auto suppliers already showing stress, margin pressure guidance will be the key watch

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