EverHint - Earnings Reports — February 10, 2026 — Q4 Season Delivers Mixed Results

Executive Summary

Fourth-quarter earnings season delivered a 62% beat rate but exposed sharp divergence between sectors as forward guidance dominated stock reactions. Technology showcased resilience with Datadog surging 14% and Spotify jumping on strong user growth, while S&P Global cratered 12% on disappointing 2026 outlook triggering financial data sector contagion. Automotive sector faced crisis with Honda profit plunging 61% and Harley-Davidson tumbling 8% on weak 2026 guidance despite Q4 beat. Healthcare showed strength with CVS, Quest, and AstraZeneca beating estimates, while industrial names posted mixed results with margin pressures evident. Guidance quality emerged as critical differentiator—companies exceeding Q4 estimates but issuing cautious outlooks (Harley, S&P Global, ZoomInfo) sold off sharply while those raising targets (Masco, Blackbaud, Ferrari) rallied despite mixed quarterly results.

Earnings Performance Breakdown

Net Beat Rate: 62% (slightly below historical 65-70% average)

Notable Earnings Reports

🟢 Datadog - Strong AI-Driven Beat

• EPS: Beat by $0.04 (59¢ vs 55¢ est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Surged +14% on AI cloud security demand
• Key Drivers: Enterprises requiring sophisticated monitoring as AI deployments proliferate creating sustained tailwind
• Guidance: Strong, benefiting from AI complexity

🟢 Spotify - Streaming Momentum

• EPS: Topped Q1 estimates
• Revenue: Beat expectations
• Stock Reaction: Surged +14% at open
• Key Drivers: User growth jumped, profitability inflection validating subscription model after years of losses
• Guidance: Q1 profit forecast above estimates; founder Daniel Ek transitioning to strategic role

🔴 S&P Global - Guidance Disaster

• EPS: Missed by $0.02 ($4.30 vs $4.32 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Plunged -12% (later -18% intraday)
• Key Drivers: 2026 guidance disappointed investors, dragging Moody's (-5%) and FactSet (-2%) lower
• Guidance: Lowered, fueling fears demand weakness in financial data oligopoly

🔴 Harley-Davidson - Consumer Pullback

• EPS: Missed by $1.38 (-$2.44 vs -$1.06 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Tumbled -8%
• Key Drivers: Sluggish demand on big-ticket discretionary items; aging customer base and affordability challenges
• Guidance: Weak 2026 outlook overshadowed Q4, signaling consumer pullback spreading beyond housing

🔴 Honda Motor - EV Transition Pain

• EPS: Profit fell 61%, missed forecasts
• Revenue: Below expectations
• Stock Reaction: Declined
• Key Drivers: EV restructuring costs biting hard; U.S. tariffs pressuring margins
• Guidance: Traditional manufacturers bleeding cash on EV investments while legacy business weakens

🟢 Hasbro - Turnaround Evidence

• EPS: Beat by $0.56 ($1.51 vs $0.95 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Rose +2%
• Key Drivers: Toy giant benefiting from Harry Potter licensing deal; entertainment pivot showing early progress
• Guidance: Maintained

🟢 CVS Health - Pharmacy Strength

• EPS: Beat by $0.09 ($1.09 vs $1.00 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive
• Key Drivers: Pharmacy benefits and retail health services driving results
• Guidance: Cash flow guidance lowered but Q4 beat offset concerns

🟢 Ferrari - Luxury Resilience

• EPS: Missed by $0.34 ($2.14 vs $2.48 est)
• Revenue: Fell short
• Stock Reaction: Positive (upbeat annual outlook)
• Key Drivers: New sports cars and electric Luce debut lifting 2026 forecast; ultra-wealthy demand resilient
• Guidance: Raised—projects core earnings growth of at least 6%

⚪ Marriott - International Offsets U.S.

• EPS: Missed by $0.03 ($2.58 vs $2.61 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Rose +2%
• Key Drivers: Strong international growth offsetting U.S. slowdown; luxury travel "insatiable"
• Guidance: Upbeat—projects 35% jump in co-branded credit card fees

🟢 Quest Diagnostics - Healthcare Demand

• EPS: Beat by $0.06 ($2.42 vs $2.36 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Rose +2% on strong outlook
• Key Drivers: Solid performance across diagnostic services
• Guidance: Raised full-year outlook

🟢 Masco - Home Improvement Strength

• EPS: Beat by $0.03 ($0.82 vs $0.79 est)
• Revenue: Fell short
• Stock Reaction: Rose +4%
• Key Drivers: Cabinet and hardware maker benefiting from renovation demand
• Guidance: 2026 outlook topped expectations

🔴 ZoomInfo - Guidance Concerns

• EPS: Beat estimates
• Revenue: Beat estimates
• Stock Reaction: Sank -10%
• Key Drivers: Sales intelligence platform facing AI disruption concerns
• Guidance: Citizens cut stock to Market Underperform; forward concerns overshadowed beat

🟢 AstraZeneca - Pharma Growth

• EPS: Beat by $1.06 ($2.12 vs $1.06 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Up
• Key Drivers: Q4 met expectations; strong drug portfolio performance
• Guidance: Forecasts 2026 sales and profit growth

🟢 Entegris - Semiconductor Recovery

• EPS: Beat by $0.04 ($0.70 vs $0.66 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Rose +7%
• Key Drivers: Specialty materials for chip manufacturing benefiting from semiconductor demand
• Guidance: Positive

🟢 Trimble - Record Margins

• EPS: Beat by $0.04 ($1.00 vs $0.96 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Edged up
• Key Drivers: Construction technology company delivered record margins
• Guidance: Solid outlook

🟢 DuPont - Materials Strength

• EPS: Beat by $0.03 ($0.46 vs $0.43 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive
• Key Drivers: Specialty materials demand across industries
• Guidance: Issued full-year outlook

🟢 Blackbaud - Software Recovery

• EPS: Beat by $0.05 ($1.19 vs $1.14 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Rose nearly +7%
• Key Drivers: Nonprofit software provider showing turnaround progress
• Guidance: Strong 2026 outlook

🔴 Wesco International - Industrial Weakness

• EPS: Missed significantly
• Revenue: Beat estimates
• Stock Reaction: Fell -7%
• Key Drivers: Electrical distributor facing margin compression
• Guidance: Concerns about industrial spending

🟢 Credo Technology - Semiconductor Surge

• EPS: N/A (pre-announcement)
• Revenue: Lifted outlook in pre-announcement
• Stock Reaction: Soared +18%
• Key Drivers: Semiconductor connectivity firm raising revenue outlook
• Guidance: Raised mid-quarter

⚪ Fiserv - EPS Beat, Revenue Miss

• EPS: Beat by $0.07 ($1.99 vs $1.92 est)
• Revenue: Fell short of estimates
• Stock Reaction: Traded flat
• Key Drivers: Fintech payments strength offset by revenue shortfall
• Guidance: Mixed signals

🟢 Coca-Cola - Revenue Miss, Positioning

• EPS: Met estimates
• Revenue: Missed estimates, shares slid
• Key Drivers: Beverage giant positioning for lower-sugar trends and GLP-1 drug impact
• Guidance: CEO seeks faster innovation

🟢 Xylem - Water Infrastructure

• EPS: Beat by $0.01 ($1.42 vs $1.41 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive
• Key Drivers: Water technology provider benefiting from infrastructure spending
• Guidance: Cautious 2026 outlook

🟢 Duke Energy - Utility Steady

• EPS: Beat by $0.01 ($1.50 vs $1.49 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive
• Key Drivers: Regulated utility delivering predictable results
• Guidance: Maintained

🟢 Zimmer Biomet - Medical Device Demand

• EPS: Beat by $0.02 ($2.42 vs $2.40 est)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive
• Key Drivers: Hip and knee implant demand steady
• Guidance: Cautious 2026 outlook

Sector Analysis

Technology - Bifurcated Performance:

• Winners: Datadog (+14%), Spotify (+14%), Credo (+18%) demonstrating AI-driven demand and streaming resilience
• Losers: ZoomInfo (-10%) despite beat on forward guidance concerns
• Theme: Infrastructure software and AI monitoring thriving; sales intelligence facing disruption questions

Automotive - Crisis Deepening:

• Honda profit plunged 61% on EV restructuring and tariff pressures
• Harley-Davidson tumbled 8% on weak 2026 outlook despite Q4 beat
• Traditional automakers bleeding cash on electric transition while legacy weakens
• Consumer pullback on big-ticket discretionary items accelerating

Healthcare - Strength Across Subsectors:

• CVS, Quest Diagnostics, AstraZeneca, Zimmer Biomet all beat
• Pharmacy benefits, diagnostics, pharmaceuticals, medical devices showing resilience
• Healthcare demand steady despite economic uncertainty
• Exception: Oscar Health missed significantly

Industrials - Margin Pressure Evident:

• Wesco (-7%), DuPont, Masco, Xylem showed mixed results
• Revenue growth modest but margin compression concerning
• Home improvement (Masco) outperforming electrical distribution (Wesco)
• Infrastructure spending benefiting select names (Xylem water tech)

Financial Services - Data Oligopoly Cracking:

• S&P Global cratered -12% on weak 2026 guidance
• Contagion spread to Moody's (-5%), FactSet (-2%)
• Fiserv beat EPS but missed revenue, traded flat
• Banks (Barclays) showing resilience with profit growth

Consumer - Bifurcation Continues:

• Luxury resilient: Ferrari raising outlook, Marriott strong internationally
• Mass market weak: Harley plunging, Coca-Cola missing revenue
• Hasbro surprising with entertainment pivot progress
• Discretionary spending pullback evident in motorcycles, toys

Energy - Profitability Despite Challenges:

• BP beat estimates but suspended buyback, shares fell -4%
• Oil majors prioritizing balance sheet over shareholder returns
• Energy sector facing pressure to reduce leverage

Materials/Chemicals:

• DuPont, Axalta showed mixed performance
• Specialty materials (DuPont, Entegris) outperforming commodity chemicals
• Semiconductor materials (Entegris +7%) benefiting from chip demand

Biggest Movers

Positive Reactions (>5%):

• Datadog: +14% (AI cloud security demand)
• Spotify: +14% (user growth, profitability inflection)
• Credo: +18% (semiconductor connectivity, raised outlook)
• Blackbaud: +7% (nonprofit software, strong 2026 outlook)
• Entegris: +7% (chip materials demand)
• Philips: +6% (health tech beat, guidance upside)
• Kering: +11% (Gucci stabilization)
• Thule: +11% (outdoor gear, Europe strength)
• Furukawa: +23% (guidance boost, dividend hike)
• Nissan Chemical: +17% (strong Q3 results)

Negative Reactions (>5%):

• S&P Global: -12% to -18% (weak 2026 guidance)
• ZoomInfo: -10% (AI disruption concerns)
• Harley-Davidson: -8% (weak 2026 outlook)
• Wesco International: -7% (industrial margins)
• Goodyear: -6% (mixed results)
• Amentum: -8% (fiscal 2026 guidance trails)
• Medpace: -5% (despite beat, in-line guidance disappointing)
• Dexerials: -20% (weak Q3 miss)

Earnings Surprises:

• Biggest Beats: UNITIL +$2.03, XPLR Infrastructure +$0.58, Hasbro +$0.56, Arch Capital +$0.42
• Biggest Misses: Phenixfin -$6.26, Harley-Davidson -$1.38, Canaan -$0.88, Oscar Health -$0.35

Market Implications

Guidance Quality Trumps Q4 Results:
Companies beating Q4 estimates but issuing cautious 2026 outlooks (Harley, S&P Global, ZoomInfo) sold off sharply while those raising targets (Masco, Blackbaud, Ferrari, Credo) rallied. Forward visibility premium elevated as investors price 2026 uncertainty.

Technology Bifurcation Accelerating:
AI infrastructure winners (Datadog cloud monitoring) and consumer platforms (Spotify streaming) thriving while traditional enterprise software (ZoomInfo) facing disruption concerns. Stock selection critical as sector dispersion widens.

Automotive Crisis Confirmed:
Honda -61% profit, Harley weak guidance, consumer pullback on motorcycles validate structural challenges. EV transition costs crushing margins while demand normalizes. Traditional automakers facing cash burn despite elevated prices.

Financial Data Oligopoly Vulnerability:
S&P Global guidance miss triggering sector contagion suggests pricing power erosion and M&A/IPO activity disappointing despite Goldman optimistic forecasts. Mission-critical moats questioned for first time.

Consumer Spending Bifurcation:
Luxury (Ferrari, Marriott international, Kering) resilient while mass market (Harley, Coca-Cola revenue) weakening. Middle-income discretionary pullback spreading from housing to motorcycles, toys. Wealth effect concentrating spending at top.

Healthcare Defensive Strength:
CVS, Quest, AstraZeneca, Zimmer beats demonstrate healthcare demand resilience regardless of economic cycle. Aging demographics and essential nature supporting steady results.

Margin Pressure Building:
Industrial names (Wesco, electrical distributors) showing revenue growth but margin compression. Input costs, labor, competition squeezing profitability despite top-line expansion.

Semiconductor Recovery Selective:
Entegris +7% on chip materials while broader semi sector mixed. AI-related demand strong (Credo) but traditional markets normalizing. Specialization and AI exposure differentiating winners.

Vlad's Key Takeaways (EverHint)

• 62% beat rate: Slightly below historical average, indicating moderating earnings strength
• S&P Global -12%: Financial data guidance miss triggers sector contagion to Moody's, FactSet
• Tech winners surge: Datadog +14%, Spotify +14%, Credo +18% on AI demand and streaming growth
• Auto crisis deepens: Honda profit -61%, Harley -8% on EV costs and consumer pullback
• Guidance premium: Forward outlook quality dominating reactions more than Q4 results
• Healthcare resilience: CVS, Quest, AstraZeneca, Zimmer all beat showing defensive strength
• Consumer bifurcation: Luxury (Ferrari, Marriott) strong, mass market (Harley, Coke) weak
• Margin compression: Industrials showing revenue growth but profitability pressured
• Hasbro surprise: +$0.56 beat on entertainment pivot and Harry Potter licensing
• BP paradox: Beat estimates but suspended buyback, fell -4% on capital allocation shift
• ZoomInfo enigma: Beat estimates but fell -10% on AI disruption fears
• Mixed results volatility: EPS beat + revenue miss (Fiserv, Marriott) creating uncertain reactions

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