EverHint - Mortgage Rates — February 10, 2026 — Edge Higher from 52-Week Lows

Summary

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.16% as of February 10, 2026, edging higher by just one basis point (+0.01%) daily but remaining near historically favorable levels within the past year. Despite the modest daily uptick, rates sit just 15 basis points above the 52-week low of 6.01%, positioning in the lower 13% of the annual range. Year-over-year comparisons remain highly favorable with the benchmark 30-year rate down -0.87%, while the 7/6 SOFR ARM leads declines at -1.24%, reflecting Fed rate cut expectations and sitting virtually at its 52-week low of 5.56%.

Current Mortgage Rates Table

Rate Movement Analysis

Daily: Minimal upward movement dominated Tuesday with most products rising one basis point (+0.01%). The 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, FHA, ARM, and VA loans all ticked higher by a single basis point, while the Jumbo rate held unchanged at 6.33%. This represents the smallest possible movement, indicating market stability rather than any meaningful directional shift in rate expectations.

Weekly: The past week shows slight downward bias with most products declining modestly. Government-backed loans led weekly declines with FHA and VA rates falling -0.05% (5 basis points), while the 15-year fixed and ARM dropped -0.03%. The 30-year benchmark declined minimally by -0.01%, and Jumbo rates eased -0.02%. Overall, the week demonstrated stable conditions with marginal improvements favoring FHA/VA borrowers.

Monthly: The past month reveals mixed movement with modest upward pressure on fixed-rate products but meaningful ARM declines. The 15-year fixed rose +0.14% (14 basis points) and the 30-year fixed climbed +0.10%, reflecting typical bond market volatility. However, the ARM bucked the trend with a -0.15% decline (15 basis points), while Jumbo rates fell -0.02%. This divergence suggests short-term rate expectations remain subdued despite longer-term rate increases.

Yearly: Year-over-year comparisons remain exceptionally favorable across all products, with rates down significantly from February 2025 levels. The 7/6 SOFR ARM leads with a -1.24% decline (124 basis points), followed by Jumbos at -0.98%, the 30-year fixed at -0.87%, the 15-year at -0.69%, and government-backed loans (FHA/VA) at -0.63%. These substantial improvements reflect the Fed's rate cutting cycle and improved inflation dynamics, providing meaningful affordability gains for homebuyers compared to one year ago.

Product Spread Analysis

30-Year vs. 15-Year: The spread stands at 0.43% (43 basis points), positioning within the normal 0.40-0.60% range. This typical spread indicates balanced market conditions without distortions. For borrowers comparing products, the 15-year option provides modest rate savings of 43 bps in exchange for higher monthly payments and accelerated equity building. The spread's normality suggests neither product offers unusual value relative to historical patterns.

Conventional vs. Government-Backed: Government-backed loans maintain meaningful advantages over conventional mortgages. FHA offers 40 basis points (0.40%) savings compared to the 30-year fixed conventional rate, while VA provides 38 basis points (0.38%) advantage. These spreads remain consistent with typical government-backed loan benefits, making them attractive options for eligible borrowers—particularly first-time buyers (FHA) and veterans (VA)—who can capitalize on lower rates despite potentially higher upfront costs or insurance requirements.

ARM vs. Fixed: The 7/6 SOFR ARM at 5.57% offers a substantial 59 basis point advantage (0.59%) over the 30-year fixed at 6.16%. This spread significantly exceeds typical differentials, reflecting market expectations that short-term rates will remain subdued. For borrowers planning to move or refinance within seven years, the ARM presents compelling value. However, the ARM's post-adjustment risk must be weighed against near-term savings, particularly given the product's proximity to its 52-week low suggesting limited further rate decline potential.

Jumbo Premium: Jumbo loans carry a 17 basis point premium (0.17%) over conventional 30-year fixed rates, positioning at the lower end of the normal 0.15-0.30% range. This compressed spread indicates healthy liquidity in the jumbo market with competitive pricing for high-balance borrowers. The minimal premium suggests lenders remain comfortable with jumbo loan risk profiles, providing favorable conditions for buyers in high-cost markets requiring loans above conforming limits ($806,500 in most areas for 2026).

52-Week Range Context

30-Year Fixed: At 6.16%, the benchmark sits just 15 basis points (0.15%) above the 52-week low of 6.01%, representing approximately 13% of the total 52-week range. This exceptionally favorable positioning places the rate in the lower tier of the past year's range, offering near-optimal affordability conditions. Borrowers above 7% can realize meaningful savings refinancing into current levels, while first-time buyers benefit from rates substantially below last year's peak of 7.13%.

15-Year Fixed: The 15-year rate at 5.73% stands 18 basis points above its 52-week low of 5.55%, positioning at 19% of the annual range. This remains firmly in favorable territory (under 25%), providing attractive conditions for borrowers seeking accelerated payoff timelines. The rate's proximity to annual lows suggests limited near-term downside but maintains historical appeal for equity-focused buyers.

30-Year FHA: FHA rates at 5.76% sit just 7 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.69%, occupying only 8% of the annual range. This represents the most favorable positioning among all products, offering exceptional value for eligible first-time buyers and low-down-payment borrowers. The minimal distance from annual lows suggests FHA has limited room to improve but maximizes current affordability advantages.

30-Year Jumbo: Jumbo rates at 6.33% rest 23 basis points above the 52-week low of 6.10%, representing 17% of the annual range. This favorable positioning indicates high-balance borrowers enjoy near-optimal conditions despite the jumbo premium over conventional loans. The rate's distance from the 7.45% 52-week high demonstrates substantial improvement from last year's challenging environment.

7/6 SOFR ARM: The ARM at 5.57% sits essentially at its 52-week low of 5.56%, occupying barely 1% of the annual range. This extraordinary positioning represents peak affordability for adjustable-rate products, with the rate having fallen -1.24% year-over-year. The ARM's compression to annual lows reflects Fed rate cuts and market expectations of sustained lower short-term rates, though this also suggests minimal downside potential from current levels.

30-Year VA: VA rates at 5.78% stand 8 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.70%, representing 10% of the annual range. This highly favorable positioning provides veterans with near-optimal borrowing conditions, combining government-backed advantages with proximity to annual lows. The narrow distance from the low suggests limited improvement potential but maximizes current benefits for eligible service members.

Year-over-Year Comparison

Mortgage rates have improved dramatically over the past year, with all products showing substantial declines that meaningfully enhance affordability. The 7/6 SOFR ARM leads year-over-year improvements with a remarkable -1.24% decline (124 basis points), falling from approximately 6.81% in February 2025 to today's 5.57%. This reflects the Fed's rate cutting cycle directly impacting short-term rate products.

Jumbo rates follow with a strong -0.98% improvement, declining from roughly 7.31% to 6.33%, indicating high-balance borrowers have experienced the second-largest affordability gains. The benchmark 30-year fixed improved -0.87% (87 basis points), falling from approximately 7.03% to 6.16%—a substantial decline that expands the pool of qualified buyers and makes refinancing attractive for borrowers above 7%.

15-year fixed rates declined -0.69% year-over-year, while government-backed products (FHA and VA) improved -0.63% each. Though government-backed improvements lag conventional declines slightly, both products remain highly competitive given their lower starting points and eligibility benefits.

From an affordability perspective, these year-over-year declines translate to meaningful payment reductions. A $400,000 loan at 7.03% (30-year fixed from Feb 2025) carries a principal and interest payment of approximately $2,660 monthly, compared to $2,435 at today's 6.16%—a $225 monthly savings or $2,700 annually. For the median-priced home, this improvement significantly expands purchasing power and reduces borrower debt burden.

Market Context

Rate Environment: At 6.16%, the 30-year fixed rate occupies a moderate zone, falling within the 6.0-6.5% range that supports steady housing demand without overheating. This level represents a meaningful improvement from 2023's peak above 7.5% and 2022's highs near 8%, but remains elevated compared to the sub-4% pandemic era and historical sub-5% averages. Current rates provide predictability for buyers while maintaining reasonable affordability barriers that prevent speculative excesses.

Refinancing Opportunity: Substantial refinancing opportunities exist for borrowers with rates above 7.0%, who can achieve 75-100+ basis point improvements by refinancing into the current 6.16% environment. Even borrowers at 6.5-7.0% may benefit from refinancing depending on closing costs and loan tenure. However, the sub-6% window appears unlikely in the near term given persistent inflation concerns and Fed policy constraints, suggesting borrowers near current market rates have limited incentive to wait for further improvements.

Fed Policy Connection: The favorable year-over-year rate improvements reflect the Federal Reserve's pivot to rate cuts initiated in late 2025, with the central bank reducing the federal funds rate by 100+ basis points from peak levels. The ARM's -1.24% decline directly mirrors these cuts, while longer-term fixed rates improved more modestly (-0.87% for 30-year) due to persistent long-term inflation expectations and Treasury market dynamics. Current rate levels suggest markets expect the Fed to maintain accommodative policy through 2026, though further significant cuts appear largely priced in. Mortgage rates' stability near annual lows indicates markets anticipate neither aggressive additional easing nor imminent tightening, creating a predictable environment for housing transactions.

Inflation and Economic Outlook: The compression of rates toward 52-week lows despite modest monthly increases (+0.10% for 30-year) suggests markets balance improving inflation trends against resilient economic growth. The Fed's success reducing inflation from 2023's peaks without triggering recession has enabled rate cuts while maintaining economic expansion. However, the past month's modest fixed-rate increases hint at lingering inflation concerns preventing further declines, particularly in longer-duration bonds. The ARM-fixed spread divergence (ARMs falling while fixed rates rise) indicates markets differentiate between near-term rate expectations (dovish) and long-term inflation risks (persistent). This environment suggests rates may consolidate near current levels rather than decline meaningfully absent renewed economic weakness.

Vlad's Key Takeaways (EverHint)

• 30-year fixed at 6.16%: Up +0.01% daily in minimal movement, demonstrating stability
• Near 52-week lows: Just 15 bps above annual low of 6.01%, at 13% of yearly range (🟢)
• Exceptional YoY improvement: Down -0.87% from February 2025, enhancing affordability significantly
• ARM at floor: 7/6 SOFR ARM at 5.57% essentially at 52-week low (1% of range), leading YoY decline at -1.24%
• All products favorable: Every rate within lower 25% of 52-week range indicating broad affordability
• Normal spreads: 30 vs 15-year at 0.43% within typical range; Jumbo premium compressed at 0.17%
• Government advantage: FHA offers 40 bps savings, VA provides 38 bps below conventional
• Wide ARM appeal: 59 bp advantage over 30-year fixed suggests strong value for shorter-horizon borrowers
• Monthly divergence: Fixed rates up modestly (+0.10-0.14%) while ARM fell -0.15%, showing term structure tension
• Refinancing window: Borrowers above 7.0% can realize meaningful savings; sub-6% environment unlikely near-term
• Fed policy reflected: Rate improvements mirror Fed cuts, though further significant declines largely priced in
• Stable outlook: Rates consolidating near annual lows suggest predictable environment for 2026 housing market

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This is not financial advice. Mortgage rates change frequently and vary by lender, borrower credit, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors. Always consult with qualified mortgage professionals.
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