EverHint - Mortgage Rates — January 16, 2026 — 30-Year Fixed Drops to 6.04%, Just Above 52-Week Low

Summary

The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.04% on January 16, 2026, declining 3 basis points from the previous day and 17 basis points over the past week. This places the rate just 3 basis points above the 52-week low of 6.01%, representing only 3% of the total 52-week range. Year-over-year, rates have improved significantly, with the 30-year fixed down -1.09% compared to a year ago, marking substantial affordability gains for homebuyers and refinancers.

Current Mortgage Rates Table

All products currently sit in favorable territory, positioned within 0-25% of their respective 52-week ranges, indicating rates are near their most affordable levels of the past year.

Rate Movement Analysis

Daily Movement

Thursday saw moderate to significant declines across most mortgage products. The 30-year fixed fell 3 basis points to 6.04%, a moderate daily movement. The 7/6 SOFR ARM led declines with a 7 basis point drop (significant daily movement), while FHA and VA loans each fell 4 basis points. The 15-year fixed showed minimal movement at -1 basis point, and the 30-year jumbo remained unchanged at 6.34%.

This downward pressure suggests improving market sentiment and expectations of continued Fed policy accommodation.

Weekly Trend

Over the past week, rates have shown consistent and significant declines. The 30-year fixed dropped 17 basis points (significant weekly movement), matching the 15-year fixed's 17 basis point decline. Government-backed loans (FHA and VA) fell 13-14 basis points, while the ARM declined 11 basis points. The jumbo rate remained relatively stable with just a 1 basis point decrease.

This weekly trajectory indicates a clear downward trend rather than volatility, providing a favorable environment for rate-sensitive buyers.

Monthly & Yearly Perspective

The monthly picture shows significant improvement, with the 30-year fixed down 25 basis points (significant monthly movement) from a month ago. The ARM demonstrates exceptional strength with a 33 basis point monthly decline, far exceeding other products. Conventional and government-backed fixed-rate loans fell 18-25 basis points over the month.

Year-over-year comparisons reveal substantial affordability gains. The 30-year fixed has improved by 109 basis points (-1.09%), while the ARM shows the strongest annual decline at 143 basis points (-1.43%). These large declines represent significant improvements in housing affordability compared to January 2025.

Product Spread Analysis

30-Year vs. 15-Year

The spread between 30-year and 15-year fixed rates stands at 0.47% (47 basis points), comfortably within the normal range of 0.40-0.60%. This typical spread suggests balanced demand across both products. Homebuyers willing to commit to higher monthly payments can save nearly half a percentage point by choosing the 15-year option, achieving faster equity building and substantial interest savings over the loan term.

Conventional vs. Government-Backed

FHA loans offer a 34 basis point advantage over conventional 30-year fixed loans (5.70% vs. 6.04%), while VA loans provide a 32 basis point savings (5.72% vs. 6.04%). These spreads make government-backed products particularly attractive for qualified borrowers, especially first-time homebuyers using FHA financing or veterans leveraging VA benefits.

ARM vs. Fixed

The 7/6 SOFR ARM at 5.62% provides a 42 basis point discount compared to the 30-year fixed at 6.04%. This moderate spread offers meaningful savings for borrowers with shorter time horizons or those expecting rates to remain stable or decline further. With the ARM's exceptional year-over-year improvement (-1.43%), adjustable-rate products have become increasingly competitive.

Jumbo Premium

Jumbo loans carry a 30 basis point premium over conventional 30-year fixed rates (6.34% vs. 6.04%). This sits at the upper end of the normal 15-30 basis point range, suggesting slightly tighter credit conditions for high-balance loans. However, the premium remains reasonable, and jumbo borrowers still benefit from the favorable year-over-year improvement of -1.06%.

52-Week Range Context

All mortgage products are positioned exceptionally close to their 52-week lows, creating a highly favorable environment for homebuyers and refinancers:

30-Year Fixed: At 6.04%, the rate sits just 3 basis points (0.03%) above the 52-week low of 6.01%, representing approximately 3% of the total 52-week range (6.01% - 7.13%). This near-low positioning indicates rates are at their most affordable levels of the past year, down 109 basis points from the 52-week high.

15-Year Fixed: Currently at 5.57%, just 2 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.55%, occupying 2% of the 52-week range (5.55% - 6.52%). Borrowers seeking faster payoff schedules enjoy near-optimal rate conditions.

30-Year FHA: At 5.70%, merely 1 basis point above the 52-week low of 5.69%, representing 1% of the range (5.69% - 6.55%). First-time homebuyers and those using FHA financing benefit from exceptional affordability.

30-Year VA: At 5.72%, just 2 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.70%, occupying 2% of the range (5.70% - 6.58%). Veterans have access to some of the most favorable mortgage conditions available.

30-Year Jumbo: At 6.34%, positioned 24 basis points above the 52-week low of 6.10%, representing 18% of the range (6.10% - 7.45%). While slightly further from the low than other products, jumbo rates remain well within favorable territory.

7/6 SOFR ARM: At 5.62%, just 3 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.59%, occupying 2% of the range (5.59% - 7.25%). ARMs offer both the lowest absolute rates and the most favorable 52-week positioning.

Year-over-Year Comparison

All mortgage products show substantial year-over-year improvements, reflecting the cumulative impact of Fed rate cuts and moderating inflation:

• 30-Year Fixed: Down -1.09% (109 basis points) vs. one year ago
• 15-Year Fixed: Down -0.95% (95 basis points)
• 30 Yr. FHA: Down -0.85% (85 basis points)
• 30 Yr. VA: Down -0.86% (86 basis points)
• 30 Yr. Jumbo: Down -1.06% (106 basis points)
• 7/6 SOFR ARM: Down -1.43% (143 basis points) — strongest improvement

The ARM's exceptional 143 basis point decline reflects market expectations of continued Fed accommodation and potential for further rate cuts in 2026. These large year-over-year declines represent significant affordability improvements, with monthly payments substantially lower than they were a year ago across all loan types.

Market Context

Rate Environment

With the benchmark 30-year fixed at 6.04%, rates have fallen into the 6.00-6.50% range, considered a moderate and supportive environment for housing demand. This level sits well below the elevated 7%+ rates seen in late 2023 and early 2024, when affordability constraints significantly dampened homebuying activity.

Homebuying implications: The sub-6.10% rate creates meaningful opportunities for buyers who had been priced out at higher rate levels. Combined with stabilizing home prices in many markets, affordability has improved substantially.

Refinancing opportunity: Borrowers with existing mortgages above 7.00% can achieve significant monthly payment reductions by refinancing at current levels. Even those with rates in the mid-6% range may find refinancing worthwhile, particularly if they can eliminate mortgage insurance or tap into home equity.

Fed Policy Connection

The consistent downward trajectory in mortgage rates, particularly the significant weekly and monthly declines, reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain accommodative policy through 2026. The ARM's exceptional performance (-1.43% YoY, -0.33% monthly) provides the clearest signal of rate cut expectations, as adjustable-rate products are most sensitive to short-term Fed policy.

Inflation outlook: Declining mortgage rates despite earlier inflation concerns suggest markets believe inflation has been sufficiently contained to allow continued Fed rate cuts without reigniting price pressures.

Economic growth: The favorable rate environment indicates expectations of moderating but stable economic growth rather than recession fears. If markets anticipated severe economic contraction, rates would likely have fallen even more dramatically.

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed at 6.04%: Moderate decline of -0.03% daily, down -0.17% weekly
• Near annual lows across all products: 30-year fixed just 3 bps above 52-week low (3% of range)
• Significant year-over-year improvement: 30-year fixed down -1.09%, representing substantial affordability gains
• ARMs lead all declines: 7/6 SOFR ARM down -1.43% YoY and -0.33% monthly, strongest performer
• Spreads remain healthy: 30 vs 15-year at 0.47%, within normal 0.40-0.60% range
• Government-backed advantages: FHA and VA offer 32-34 basis point savings over conventional
• Favorable environment: All products within 0-25% of 52-week ranges indicate near-optimal conditions
• Refinancing opportunity: Borrowers with rates above 7% can achieve meaningful payment reductions
• Fed expectations: Continued rate declines suggest market anticipates accommodative policy through 2026

🎯 If this added value to your research, consider liking, sharing, or subscribing. It genuinely helps.

Independent, data-driven market research.
No hype. No promotions. Just insights from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Mortgage rates change frequently and vary by lender, borrower credit, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors. Always consult with qualified mortgage professionals.
See https://www.everhint.com/disclaimer/ and https://www.everhint.com/faqs/