EverHint Signal — Dip & Bounce — December 26, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The Dip & Bounce strategy is an experimental mean-reversion scanner that identifies stocks experiencing controlled intraday flushes followed by same-day recoveries. Think of it as catching stocks that got punched, absorbed the selling, and bounced off the lows—all within a single trading session.

Pattern Requirements:

• Dip from previous close: Stock trades significantly below yesterday's close during today's session (≥3.3% dip in today's batch)
• Bounce off the low: Price recovers intraday and closes meaningfully above the session low (≥1.0% bounce)
• Net result: Day often finishes red or flat (-2% to +0.3%), but with visible buying pressure shown by a lower tail/wick on the candlestick

This is not trend-following. This is mean-reversion trading—buying controlled dips with evidence of buyers stepping in. The ideal setup: stock opens, gets flushed down to create a lower wick, then recovers as buyers absorb the selling. You're targeting 1-3 day bounce plays or short-term swing trades.

Best For:

• Traders who like buying dips with visible intraday support
• Short-term swing traders looking for 3-5% bounces over 1-3 days
• Complementing trend-following strategies by catching pullbacks in strong names

Not For:

• Long-term holders (these are tactical trades)
• Traders who can't monitor positions daily
• Anyone expecting immediate gratification (bounces take 1-3 days to materialize)

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by Dip % (largest dips first), then Bounce % (strongest recoveries). Larger controlled flushes with stronger intraday bounces rank higher—these show the clearest "flush then absorb" pattern.

We overlay three critical data layers:

1. Insider Net Flow — Net buying/selling by insiders over last 90 days (P-S only). Critical for dip-buying: Insider purchases during dips are extremely bullish. Insider selling during dips is a red flag.
2. Days to Earnings — Proximity to earnings affects whether the dip is pre-earnings positioning or genuine selling
3. RSI — Lower RSI suggests more oversold conditions, better mean-reversion potential

Important Context: These are controlled dips with visible buying, not crashes. All signals closed within -2% to +0.3% of previous close, meaning the selloff was absorbed. However, mean reversion can fail if the broader trend is broken—always check SMA200 and market context.

📈 Dip & Bounce Signals

9 stocks generated Dip & Bounce signals on December 26, 2025, ranked by dip size and bounce strength:

Field Notes: Dip & Bounce Signals

Understanding the Metrics:

Dip %: How far below yesterday's close the stock traded during today's session. Larger dips (4-5%) indicate more aggressive selling, but also create better bounce potential if support holds.

Bounce %: How much the stock recovered from today's intraday low to the close. Stronger bounces (3-4.5%) show buyers stepped in aggressively. Weaker bounces (1.6-2.2%) suggest tentative buying.

Net Chg %: Overall day performance. Notice all signals finished red (-0.29% to -1.94%), which is expected—dip-bounce patterns create lower tails on red candles. The key is the bounce off the low, not the daily close color.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

• Below 30 (GRAL 29.2, BE 31.4) = Deeply oversold, strongest mean-reversion candidates
• 30-50 (INOD 36.3, ALHC 42.5, VKTX 42.0, GSAT 42.6, VSAT 49.1) = Neutral to weak momentum, decent setups
• Above 60 (QURE 59.5, GPCR 75.7) = Less oversold, riskier for mean reversion

Insider Activity — MAJOR RED FLAGS:

This is where today's signals get concerning. 8 out of 9 signals show insider selling, some extremely heavy:

• GRAL (-$81.76M): Illumina (10% owner) dumped 1 million shares for $79.85M in mid-November. This is not a dip-buying opportunity—this is a major shareholder exiting. Avoid.
• BE (-$16.03M): Director Jim Snabe sold $2.86M, Shawn Soderberg sold $5.17M, Mary Bush sold $5.14M, Eddy Zervigon sold $2.83M—all in early November. Entire board selling is a major red flag.
• ALHC (-$4.32M): CEO John Kao sold $6.05M over two transactions (Oct-Nov). Director Joseph Konowiecki sold $1.0M. Top leadership selling during weakness.
• VKTX (-$3.72M): CEO Brian Lian sold $1.36M, CFO Greg Zante sold $216K, COO Marianna Mancini sold $216K, Director Charles Rowland sold $2.13M—all in late October.
• INOD (-$2.96M): EVP Ashok Mishra sold $2.96M over multiple transactions in November.
• GSAT (-$1.30M): General Counsel and CFO both selling small amounts ($26K each) as recently as Dec 22, plus larger sales in November.
• QURE (-$540K): Director Jack Kaye sold $540K in early November.
• VSAT: No P/S transactions, but only award grants to directors (neutral).
• GPCR: No insider data available.

Key Insight: When insiders are selling INTO weakness, it's a strong bearish signal. Dip-buying works best when insiders are buying WITH you, not selling TO you. The lack of insider buying on today's dips is deeply concerning.

Earnings Proximity:

• Near-term (< 45 days): VKTX (40d), VSAT (41d) — dips could be pre-earnings positioning
• Mid-term (50-60 days): GRAL, INOD (both 55d)
• Safer Zone (> 60 days): ALHC, BE, QURE, GPCR, GSAT (all 62d)

Sector Breakdown:

• Healthcare dominance (5 signals: GRAL, ALHC, QURE, VKTX, GPCR) — sector-wide flush, potential rotation out of healthcare
• Technology (2: VSAT, INOD) — isolated dips
• Industrials (1: BE) — Bloom Energy specific weakness
• Communication Services (1: GSAT) — satellite sector volatility

Recent Headlines

VKTX — Viking Therapeutics

• "Viking Therapeutics, Inc. Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know" (Zacks, Dec 23) — Closed at $36.41, +2.85% the day before this dip
• "Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About Viking Therapeutics: Should You Buy?" (Zacks, Dec 23) — Bullish analyst sentiment despite insider selling
• "Viking Therapeutics Receives Average Rating of 'Moderate Buy' from Brokerages" (Defense World, Dec 23) — 16 analysts covering, majority buy/hold

Other tickers: No significant recent news for GRAL, VSAT, BE, ALHC, QURE, INOD, GPCR, GSAT in the last 2-3 days. Dips appear technical/sector-driven rather than news-driven.

Field Notes

What Makes a Good Dip-Bounce Setup?

The ideal dip-bounce signal has:

1. Controlled dip (3-5% from prev_close, not 10%+)
2. Strong bounce (2.5%+ recovery from the low)
3. Low RSI (< 40 preferred, shows oversold)
4. Insider buying (insiders buying the dip with you)
5. Above SMA200 (all today's signals passed this filter, confirming uptrend intact)
6. No negative news (dip is technical, not fundamental)

Today's Signals — Quality Assessment:

Best Technical Setups (pattern only):

• GRAL: 4.63% dip, 4.54% bounce, RSI 29.2 (deeply oversold) — cleanest dip-bounce pattern
• VSAT: 4.07% dip, 3.23% bounce, RSI 49.1 (neutral momentum)
• VKTX: 3.61% dip, 3.28% bounce, RSI 42.0 (moderate oversold)
• GSAT: 3.46% dip, 3.00% bounce, RSI 42.6

Weakest Patterns:

• GPCR: 3.50% dip, only 1.62% bounce, RSI 75.7 (overbought, poor mean-reversion candidate)
• INOD: 3.59% dip, only 1.76% bounce, weak buying pressure

Insider Overlay Destroys Most Setups:

Here's the harsh reality: Every single technically clean setup has insider selling. GRAL's -$81.76M insider dump disqualifies it entirely. BE's -$16.03M board-wide selling is a massive red flag. VKTX's -$3.72M C-suite selling questions the bounce thesis.

Only VSAT (no P/S activity) and GPCR (no data) avoid the insider-selling problem, but GPCR's overbought RSI (75.7) and weak bounce (1.62%) make it unattractive.

Market Context (Dec 26):

• S&P 500 -0.09%, Nasdaq -0.22%, Dow flat
• VIX 13.6 (low volatility, complacent market)
• Russell 2000 -0.49% (small-caps lagging)
• Healthcare sector showing multiple dip patterns — potential sector rotation

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop: S&P 500 -0.09%, Nasdaq -0.22%, Dow flat in a muted holiday session. VIX at 13.6 signals remarkably low volatility—complacency reigns. Small-caps lagged (Russell 2000 -0.49%), suggesting defensive positioning. Treasury yields rose (10Y at 4.139%), mild headwind for growth. Overall: Cautiously neutral, exceptionally low vol environment. Extended weekend ahead—gap risk on Monday reopen.

The Brutal Truth About Today's Signals: I'm going to be blunt here. On a pure pattern basis, we have 9 technically sound dip-bounce setups. But the insider data kills almost every single one.

When you see a stock flush 4% intraday and bounce 4.5% off the lows (GRAL), your first instinct is "great mean-reversion setup!" Then you check insider activity and find that the 10% owner (Illumina) dumped $79.85 million worth of shares four weeks ago. That's not a dip to buy—that's a sinking ship that insiders have already abandoned.

The Insider Problem:

Dip-buying works best when you have alignment—insiders buying WITH you during weakness. That's the bullish confirmation. When insiders are selling INTO weakness, they're telling you something: they think the stock is overvalued even at these dipped prices.

Today's batch:

• GRAL: -$81.76M (disqualified)
• BE: -$16.03M (disqualified)
• ALHC: -$4.32M CEO selling (disqualified)
• VKTX: -$3.72M C-suite selling (questionable)
• INOD: -$2.96M (questionable)
• GSAT: -$1.30M (minor concern)
• QURE: -$540K (minor concern)
• VSAT: No P/S activity (neutral)
• GPCR: No data (neutral, but RSI 75.7 overbought)

The Only Playable Setup (and it's marginal):

VSAT — Viasat: 4.07% dip, 3.23% bounce, RSI 49.1, no insider selling (just award grants), 41 days to earnings. Satellite sector has been volatile. This is the cleanest setup from an insider perspective, but:

• RSI 49 means it's not oversold
• Earnings in 41 days creates event risk
• Satellite stocks (ASTS, GSAT, VSAT) have been choppy
• Entry: Consider $34.50 (below today's close) if it weakens further
• Stop: Below today's low at $33.72 (-2.2%)
• Target: Previous high or 3-5% bounce ($35.50-36.00)
• Time stop: Exit if no progress in 3 days

VKTX — Viking Therapeutics (risky contrarian): Analyst support is strong (16 analysts, majority buy), stock bounced 2.85% yesterday before today's dip. 3.61% dip, 3.28% bounce, RSI 42 (slight oversold). Problem: -$3.72M insider selling in Oct. Earnings in 40 days. This is only for aggressive traders willing to bet that Oct selling is stale and analyst bullishness is correct.

• Entry: $36.50-37.00 (on further weakness)
• Stop: $35.80 (below today's low)
• Target: $38.50-39.00 (previous day's level)
• Time stop: 2-3 days max

Everything Else — PASS:

• GRAL, BE, ALHC: Insider selling too heavy
• INOD: Weak bounce (1.76%), heavy insider selling
• GPCR: RSI 75.7 overbought, weak bounce
• GSAT: Minor concern on selling, but marginal setup
• QURE: RSI 59.5 not oversold enough

Healthcare Sector Flush:

5 out of 9 signals are healthcare (GRAL, ALHC, QURE, VKTX, GPCR). This isn't random—it's a sector rotation pattern. Healthcare has been strong in 2024-2025, and profit-taking is hitting the sector. When an entire sector dips together, individual dip-bounces become riskier because you're fighting the sector tide, not just stock-specific weakness.

Trading Tips for Dip-Bounce Strategies:

1. Entry timing: Don't chase same-day. Wait for next morning weakness or enter at previous day's close level if it revisits.
2. Position sizing: 1-2% of portfolio max per signal. These are tactical trades, not core holdings.
3. Stop loss: Always below today's low. If the low breaks, the bounce thesis is dead. No second chances.
4. Take profit: 3-5% bounce is realistic target. Don't get greedy. Mean reversion works best with defined exits.
5. Time stop: If no bounce in 1-3 days, exit. Mean reversion either works fast or doesn't work at all.
6. Check insider activity: If insiders are selling during dips, that's a red flag. Today proves this rule.

VIX at 13.6 — Complacency Alert:

Exceptionally low volatility won't last. When VIX spikes from these levels, mean-reversion strategies underperform because "dips" become "crashes." Extended weekend ahead (Sat-Sun) creates gap risk Monday. Any negative news over the weekend could blow out stops.

Bottom Line:

Today's dip-bounce signals have clean technical patterns but terrible insider overlays. The lack of insider buying during weakness is a massive red flag. If I had to play one, it would be VSAT (no insider selling, decent pattern), but even that's a 50/50 bet given the sector volatility and pre-earnings timing.

Most days, the best trade is no trade. Today is one of those days. Wait for dip-bounce setups where insiders are buying WITH you, not selling TO you.

Market Reopen Monday: Be prepared for gaps given the extended weekend. If healthcare continues to weaken, these dip-bounce plays could gap lower Monday morning. Protect capital first, chase bounces second.

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