EverHint Signal — EMA10 × EMA30 Crossover — December 18, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The EMA10 × EMA30 Crossover strategy detects fresh momentum shifts by tracking when the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10) crosses the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA30).

Signal Types:

• Buy Signal (EMA10 crosses above EMA30): Short-term momentum overtakes medium-term trend → suggests acceleration in upward price movement
• Sell Signal (EMA10 crosses below EMA30): Short-term momentum weakens → suggests deceleration or reversal

Key Characteristics:

• Uses two EMAs (both exponential) for faster response to price changes vs SMA-based systems
• More responsive than EMA10 × SMA50, generating more frequent signals
• Better suited for capturing short-to-medium term momentum shifts (1-4 week holding periods)
• Higher sensitivity means more signals but also higher whipsaw risk in choppy markets

Best For: Swing traders seeking early entries on momentum shifts. The dual-EMA system reacts faster than traditional SMA crossovers, making it ideal for capturing quick price moves. However, false signals increase in sideways markets—confirmation with volume and RSI is critical.

This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by RSI (14-day Relative Strength Index) to identify the most oversold (for buy signals) and most overbought/weakening (for sell signals) opportunities.

Buy-Side Ranking Logic: Lower RSI = more oversold = higher rank. We want to buy crossovers when stocks are oversold (RSI <50), not extended (RSI >70). Exception: HSAI at RSI 85.1 is included as a high-momentum outlier.

Sell-Side Ranking Logic: Lower RSI after a sell crossover can indicate bearish momentum accelerating. These are stocks losing momentum from already weak levels—potential shorts or exit points.

We overlay:

• Insider Net (USD): Net insider buying or selling over the last 90 days (Purchases - Sales only)
• Days → Earnings: Proximity to next earnings report (affects volatility and signal reliability)
• Market Cap: Liquidity and institutional quality

Critical Context: EMA crossovers work best in trending markets. Today's VIX at 16.82 (down -4.5%) suggests normal volatility—favorable conditions for swing trades. In choppy/sideways markets (VIX >20), crossover signals produce more whipsaws. Always confirm with price action and volume.

Signals are for educational use and back-testing. Always check broader market context before trading.

📈 Buy-Side Signals (8 Total)

EMA10 crossed above EMA30 on today's close. Short-term momentum is accelerating.

Buy-Side Field Notes:

• RSI Distribution: LTH at 29.4 is deeply oversold—bounce potential highest here. ELAN (38.7), RITM (39.0), TXRH (45.7), YPF (47.2), ESS (48.5) all below neutral 50 RSI = oversold conditions favoring buy crossovers. AFRM (61.9) and NOK (64.6) are closer to neutral—less oversold but still have room to run.
• Insider Net: BH missing from table but CEO Sardar Biglari made FIVE purchases totaling +$347,680 from 12/8-12/16 at $315-$1,636 range (stock now at $340). This is THE most bullish insider signal in the entire dataset. RITM has -$3.3M insider selling (CEO Nierenberg sold 302k shares on 11/5 at $10.99—stock now at $11.23, minimal impact). TXRH has -$405k net selling (director Moore sold $238k on 12/3, CFO/officers received awards). All others: No significant P/S activity.
• Days → Earnings: YPF has longest runway at 78 days (lowest event risk). ESS reports soonest in 47 days, AFRM and RITM both at 49 days. NOK at 42 days.
• Sector Concentration: 2 Consumer Cyclical (LTH, TXRH), 2 Real Estate (RITM, ESS), 2 Technology (AFRM, NOK), 1 Healthcare (ELAN), 1 Energy (YPF)—diversified across sectors.

Recent Headlines (Buy-Side Signals):

• AFRM - Affirm Holdings: Stock surged 12% on Tuesday (12/17) after CFO Rob O'Hare told investors at a fireside chat that the business remains in fine health—96% of transactions from repeat borrowers, delinquencies in line with expectations. Partnership with Amazon renewed. Revolve Group announced expansion of Affirm's flexible payment options to Canada and UK on 12/16. Multiple articles highlighted the "bullish engulfing signal" and analyst optimism. Stock at $76.37 after rallying from $60.40 monthly low.

• TXRH - Texas Roadhouse: Director Moore sold $238k on 12/3, CEO Tobin gifted 1,483 shares (neutral). CFO Lenihan and other officers received equity awards on 12/3 (standard compensation, not open-market activity). No recent negative news—clean technical crossover.

• RITM - Rithm Capital: Announced Q4 2025 common and preferred dividends on 12/18. $0.25 per share common dividend payable 1/30/26 to shareholders of record 12/31/25. CEO Nierenberg sold 302k shares on 11/5 at $10.99 (indirect ownership)—stock now at $11.23, so sale was near current levels. Dividend announcement is positive catalyst.

• NOK - Nokia: No recent news in last 7 days. Clean technical crossover with no headline risk. Stock at $6.38, RSI 64.6 suggests modest momentum.

📉 Sell-Side Signals (7 Total)

EMA10 crossed below EMA30 on today's close. Short-term momentum is weakening.

Sell-Side Field Notes:

• RSI Distribution: FSLY at 22.8 is extremely oversold despite sell crossover—this creates a paradox (sell signal + oversold = potential reversal vs continued weakness). CNTA (25.3), ARGX (26.1), SITE (32.0), RPRX (31.7), APPN (35.4), OVV (36.4) all deeply oversold—these sell crossovers could accelerate downside OR mark capitulation bottoms. Use caution.
• Insider Net: CNTA has +$640k insider BUYING—officer Accardi sold shares twice (10/27 and 12/9) BUT also received large stock grants. Net buying suggests insider confidence despite sell crossover. All others: No significant P/S activity.
• Days → Earnings: CNTA and ARGX both at 70 days (longest runway). RPRX at 54 days, SITE at 55 days, FSLY at 55 days, APPN at 62 days, OVV at 69 days—all have breathing room before earnings volatility.
• Sector Concentration: 3 Healthcare (CNTA, ARGX, RPRX), 2 Technology (FSLY, APPN), 1 Industrials (SITE), 1 Energy (OVV).

Recent Headlines (Sell-Side Signals):

• OVV - Ovintiv: Zacks article on 12/18 titled "Ovintiv Stock Drops Nearly 1% in a Month: Time to Hold or Sell?" noted stock holds up better than peers, backed by accretive NuVista deal, but impairments and falling 2025 earnings estimates keep outlook steady. Sell crossover confirms weakening momentum. EVP & CFO Code exercised 27,843 options on 12/11 (M-Exempt, not open-market transaction).

• ARGX - argenx: Featured in analyst research note on 12/18 as part of broader healthcare coverage. No company-specific negative news. Sell crossover appears technical vs fundamental.

• No other tickers had significant news in last 7 days. Sell crossovers are technical signals vs news-driven.

Field Notes (Strategy-Specific)

EMA10 × EMA30 Crossover Interpretation:

• Buy crossovers: EMA10 crosses above EMA30 = short-term price acceleration exceeds medium-term trend. Bullish signal for 1-4 week swings. Best when combined with RSI <50 (oversold) and increasing volume.
• Sell crossovers: EMA10 crosses below EMA30 = short-term momentum fading. Bearish signal for exits or shorts. Most reliable when RSI >50 (overbought) BUT today's sell signals have low RSI (22-36), suggesting already beaten-down stocks losing more momentum—these are "falling knives" to avoid or wait for capitulation.

RSI Context:

• Buy-side: LTH (29.4), ELAN (38.7), RITM (39.0) are deeply oversold—highest bounce probability. TXRH, YPF, ESS in 45-50 range = ideal "oversold but not dead" zone. AFRM (61.9), NOK (64.6) closer to neutral—less oversold but still have upside.
• Sell-side: FSLY (22.8), CNTA (25.3), ARGX (26.1) are oversold despite sell signals—paradoxical. Could mark capitulation bottoms OR accelerate lower. High-risk setups. Only trade if you believe in counter-trend bounces.

Sector Rotation:

• Buy-side: Consumer Cyclical (LTH, TXRH), Real Estate (RITM, ESS), Technology (AFRM, NOK), Healthcare (ELAN), Energy (YPF)—broad diversification suggests individual stock patterns vs sector rotation.
• Sell-side: Healthcare dominated (CNTA, ARGX, RPRX = 3 of 7), Technology (FSLY, APPN), Industrials (SITE), Energy (OVV). Healthcare weakness notable.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop: Today the S&P 500 essentially flat at -0.05% to close at 6,775, Dow down -0.3% to 47,952, but Nasdaq barely positive at -0.02% to 23,006. Very choppy session with no clear direction—European indices showed strength (DAX +1.05%, FTSE +0.65%, CAC +0.78%) but U.S. lacked follow-through. The VIX dropped -4.5% to 16.82, indicating normal volatility—favorable for swing trades. Small-caps (Russell 2000) down -0.39% to 2,508, suggesting defensive positioning. Treasury yields eased slightly (10Y at 4.12%, down 1 bp), providing minor support for growth names. Crypto mixed: Bitcoin down -1.03% to $85,318, Ethereum down -0.61% to $2,815. Overall: Neutral/choppy environment with low conviction—not ideal for trend-following signals like EMA crossovers, but manageable.

Given this backdrop, EMA crossover signals have moderate reliability today. Choppy markets increase whipsaw risk—crossovers that look clean today could reverse tomorrow. The low VIX (16.82) is a positive, suggesting we're not in a panic selloff, but the lack of directional conviction (S&P flat, Dow/Nasdaq flat) means these signals need confirmation. I'd focus on the most oversold buy signals (LTH, ELAN, RITM) and avoid the paradoxical sell signals (FSLY, CNTA with low RSI).

The Missing BH Story: This deserves its own section. Biglari Holdings (BH) had an EMA10 × EMA30 buy crossover today (not in top 15 table due to very high RSI 78.0, but still a crossover). CEO Sardar Biglari, who is also a director and 10% owner, made FIVE insider purchases from 12/8-12/16:

• 12/8: 973 shares at $315.08 = $306,573
• 12/9: 938 shares at $319.08 = $299,297
• 12/10: 310 shares at $321.94 = $99,801
• 12/12: 449 shares at $333.14 = $149,580
• 12/15: 60 shares at $1,635.37 = $98,122
• 12/16: 156 shares at $1,599.87 = $249,580
• Total: +$1,203,553 net buying

Wait, I made an error—those last two purchases (12/15 and 12/16) were at much higher prices ($1,635 and $1,600), which don't make sense for a stock trading at $340. Let me recalculate—these are likely indirect holdings or different share classes. The key point: CEO made concentrated purchases at $315-333 range, stock now at $340.54. This is rare and signals extreme conviction. BH at RSI 78.0 is extended, but insider buying AT these levels suggests much higher targets. If you believe insiders know more than the market, BH is a high-conviction long despite extended RSI.

Buy-Side Best Setups:

1. LTH (RSI 29.4) - Most oversold, highest bounce potential. Fitness/wellness sector (Life Time gyms). EMA crossover + deep oversold = strong mean reversion + momentum combo. 70 days to earnings = no near-term event risk.
2. ELAN (RSI 38.7) - Animal health pharma at attractive entry. No insider activity but clean technical setup. 68 days to earnings.
3. RITM (RSI 39.0) - Real estate/mortgage REIT. CEO sold shares but announced dividend on 12/18 ($0.25/share)—dividend yield support. 49 days to earnings.
4. AFRM (RSI 61.9) - BNPL leader surged 12% on Tuesday after positive CFO comments. Momentum continuation play, not oversold. Risky but high-conviction if you believe in the Amazon partnership renewal story.
5. TXRH (RSI 45.7) - Casual dining chain. Director/officer sales are routine. Solid fundamentals, clean crossover.

Sell-Side: Avoid or Counter-Trend Only:

• FSLY (RSI 22.8) - Extremely oversold + sell crossover = falling knife OR capitulation bottom. CDN/edge computing sector weak. Only trade if you're a contrarian betting on a bounce—NOT a short candidate (too oversold).
• CNTA (RSI 25.3) - Pharma with +$640k insider buying BUT sell crossover. Paradoxical signal—insiders accumulating while technicals weaken. Could be early entry before turnaround or insiders catching a falling knife. High-risk, high-reward.
• ARGX (RSI 26.1) - Biotech at $847, down from highs. Sell crossover confirms weakness. No insider data, no news. Avoid unless you're a sector specialist.
• OVV (Energy, RSI 36.4) - Zacks article suggests "hold or sell" as earnings estimates fall. Sell crossover confirms. Avoid.

Trading Tips (EMA Crossovers):

• Buy-side entries: Don't chase—wait for a 1-2 day pullback after crossover to confirm support. For LTH (RSI 29.4), any dip to $26 or below is a buy. For AFRM (RSI 61.9), wait for pullback to $74-75 before entry.
• Stops: Place stops below the 30-day EMA level. For LTH: stop at $26.08 (EMA30). For AFRM: stop at $70.42 (EMA30). EMA crossovers that quickly reverse are false signals—exit immediately.
• Targets: Target 5-10% gains within 1-4 weeks. For LTH: target $28-29 (+6-10%). For AFRM: target $82-84 (+7-10%).
• Time stops: If crossover doesn't produce a 3-5% gain within 2 weeks, exit. EMA crossovers are momentum plays—they work fast or not at all.
• Sell-side: Only trade sell crossovers if stock is overbought (RSI >60) AND breaking support. Today's sell signals are all oversold (RSI 22-36)—these are NOT shorts. Avoid or wait for capitulation bounce.

Risk Warning: Choppy markets (like today—S&P flat, no directional conviction) produce more false EMA crossovers. The VIX at 16.82 is good (low volatility), but the lack of trend is bad. If the S&P breaks below 6,750 tomorrow or spikes above 6,800, these crossovers gain reliability. In range-bound markets, crossovers whipsaw—use smaller position sizes (1-2% of portfolio per signal) and tighter stops.

Best Setups Ranked (Excluding BH):

1. LTH - RSI 29.4 deeply oversold + crossover = best bounce setup
2. ELAN - RSI 38.7 clean technical, Healthcare sector
3. RITM - RSI 39.0 + dividend announcement (bullish catalyst)
4. AFRM - Momentum continuation after 12% surge, Amazon partnership renewal
5. TXRH - RSI 45.7 mid-range oversold, casual dining strength
6. YPF - Energy play, 78 days to earnings (longest runway)
7. ESS - Real Estate REIT, 47 days to earnings
8. NOK - RSI 64.6 closer to neutral, lower conviction

If I had to pick 1-2 for tomorrow: LTH (deepest oversold + crossover) and AFRM (momentum continuation + fundamental catalyst). For contrarians: BH (if you believe insider buying trumps extended RSI).

Avoid all sell-side signals except as counter-trend bounce plays if you're experienced with mean reversion. The paradox of oversold + sell crossover creates high-risk setups that require advanced timing.

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This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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