EverHint Signal — EMA10 × EMA30 Crossover — December 26, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The EMA10 × EMA30 Crossover strategy detects fresh momentum shifts by tracking when the 10-day exponential moving average crosses the 30-day exponential moving average. This is an experimental scanner designed for swing traders looking to capture short-to-medium term price movements.

Buy Signal: EMA(10) crosses above EMA(30) — short-term momentum overtakes the medium-term trend, suggesting upward acceleration. Think of it as the stock shifting into a higher gear.

Sell Signal: EMA(10) crosses below EMA(30) — short-term momentum weakens below the medium-term trend, signaling potential deceleration or reversal.

Unlike slower-moving crossovers (like EMA10 × SMA50), this strategy uses two exponential averages for faster response to price changes. The tradeoff: more frequent signals but higher whipsaw risk in choppy markets. Best suited for 1-4 week holding periods.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by RSI (Relative Strength Index) to identify momentum quality. For buy signals, lower RSI values rank higher — these represent stocks breaking upward from more oversold conditions, potentially offering better risk/reward setups. For sell signals, higher RSI values rank first — momentum rolling over from overbought levels.

We overlay three critical data layers on each signal:

1. Insider Net Flow — Net buying or selling by company insiders over the last 90 days (open-market purchases minus sales only; excludes awards and exercises)
2. Days to Earnings — Proximity to next earnings report affects volatility and event risk
3. Analyst Coverage — Confirms institutional attention and research depth

Important: These signals are for educational purposes and backtesting. Not every crossover leads to sustained moves. Markets don't move in straight lines, and crossover strategies work best in trending environments.

📈 Buy-Side Signals

16 stocks generated EMA10 × EMA30 buy signals on December 26, 2025, ranked by RSI (lowest to highest):

Field Notes: Buy Signals

Insider Activity Standouts:

• KMI (+$26.0M): Massive insider buying led by Executive Chairman Richard Kinder's $26.0M purchase of 1M shares at $25.96 on Oct 27. This is a strong vote of confidence from company leadership.
• APH (-$20.5M): President Luc Walter sold $20.5M in shares following stock option exercises. Large insider selling warrants caution despite technical breakout.
• TEL (-$11.5M): CEO Terrence Curtin sold $5.9M over multiple transactions in mid-December. Notable selling at these elevated levels.

RSI Context:

• Low RSI Group (KMI, APH, NPO, TEL, MTD): Breaking out from oversold or neutral zones (RSI 41-49). These represent the freshest momentum shifts with potential runway.
• High RSI Group (MGNI, HALO): RSI above 77 indicates strong momentum but limited upside room. Consider waiting for pullbacks.

Earnings Proximity:

• Near-term (< 40 days): APH, TEL, KMI, MTD, MC, UAA all report within 41 days. Expect heightened volatility.
• Safe Zone (> 50 days): FSS, FWONK, MGNI, HALO, NPO, MORN, XPEV provide cushion from earnings-related whipsaws.

Recent Headlines: Buy Signals

APH — Amphenol Corporation

• "4 Hardware Tech Stocks to Buy Ahead of the 2026 Gadget Boom" (Zacks, Dec 26) — Amphenol positioned to benefit from growing consumer electronics demand
• "Is Amphenol (APH) Outperforming Other Computer and Technology Stocks This Year?" (Zacks, Dec 26) — Year-over-year sector performance comparison

CME — CME Group Inc.

• "FanDuel and CME Group Launch FanDuel Predicts" (PRNewswire, Dec 22) — New prediction markets platform launching in five states with national rollout planned
• "Coinbase vs. CME Group: Which Exchange Platform is Faring Better?" (Zacks, Dec 26) — Comparative analysis of digital exchange growth strategies

NFG — National Fuel Gas Company

• "Are You Looking for a High-Growth Dividend Stock?" (Zacks, Dec 22) — Dividend analysis highlights NFG's income potential
• "Here's Why National Fuel Gas (NFG) is a Strong Value Stock" (Zacks, Dec 22) — Value-focused screening identifies NFG

📉 Sell-Side Signals

9 stocks generated EMA10 × EMA30 sell signals on December 26, 2025, ranked by RSI (highest to lowest):

Field Notes: Sell Signals

Insider Activity Standouts:

• MTN (+$8.4M): Net insider buying including CEO Robert Katz's equity awards and CFO Angela Korch's $32.6K open-market purchase in October. Mixed signals as company faces momentum breakdown.
• IRDM (+$402K): Director Robert Niehaus purchased $525K worth of shares (30K shares at $17.49) on Oct 28, offsetting some director selling. Fresh buying before this breakdown is notable.

RSI Context:

• Deeply Oversold (QLYS, LAMR, CNX): RSI below 32 indicates severe selling pressure. These could be candidates for mean-reversion bounces, but downtrends often persist longer than expected.
• Weakening Momentum (SPXC, MTN, IRDM): RSI near 50 suggests gradual loss of momentum rather than panic selling. Could signal extended downtrends.

Earnings Proximity:

• Danger Zone (< 45 days): CNX, RVTY, NFG, OWL, QLYS all report within 41 days. Negative technical setup into earnings raises risk of disappointing results.
• Buffer Zone: LAMR (55 days), SPXC (60 days), MTN (73 days) provide breathing room before earnings catalysts.

Recent Headlines: Sell Signals

CNX — CNX Resources Corporation

• "Here's Why CNX Resources Corporation. (CNX) is a Strong Momentum Stock" (Zacks, Dec 24) — Momentum score highlights CNX despite today's breakdown

No recent major news for IRDM, LAMR, MTN, NFG, OWL, QLYS, RVTY, SPXC — lack of catalysts may explain technical weakness.

Field Notes

Understanding the Metrics:

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Measures momentum on 0-100 scale

• Below 30 = Oversold (potential bounce candidates)
• 30-50 = Neutral to weak momentum
• 50-70 = Healthy uptrend
• Above 70 = Overbought (watch for exhaustion)

Insider Net: Net open-market buying (P) minus selling (S) over 90 days

• Positive = Insiders buying (bullish signal)
• Negative = Insiders selling (bearish signal, but context matters)
• Blank = No significant insider activity
• Awards (A), Exercises (M), and Tax payments (F) excluded — not open-market transactions

Days to Earnings: Calendar days until next quarterly report

• < 14 days = High volatility risk
• 14-45 days = Moderate event risk

• 45 days = Lower earnings-related volatility

Sector Rotation Observations:

Buy-side leadership: Financial Services (4 signals), Industrials (3), Technology (3), Healthcare (2) — suggests rotation into economically-sensitive sectors and quality growth.

Sell-side weakness: Energy (2 signals), with additional pressure across Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Real Estate, and Technology — mixed sector breakdown suggests stock-specific weakness rather than broad sector rotation.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop (Dec 26, 2025): S&P 500 -0.09%, Nasdaq -0.22%, Dow flat. Slightly negative close in a holiday-thinned session. VIX at 13.6 (down 3.68%) — remarkably low volatility suggesting complacent markets. Small-caps underperformed with Russell 2000 down 0.49%, indicating some defensive positioning. Treasury yields rose moderately (10Y at 4.139%, up 1.7 bps), applying mild pressure to growth names. Bitcoin +0.34% to $87.5K, Ethereum +0.88% to $2,928 — crypto showing resilience. Overall: Cautiously neutral environment with exceptionally low vol.

Extended Non-Trading Period Alert: Markets are closed Saturday-Sunday (Dec 27-28). This extended break means any news or geopolitical events could create gaps when markets reopen Monday. Monitor headlines closely over the weekend, especially given current low VIX — complacency can reverse quickly.

The Signal Quality: 16 buy signals vs. 9 sell signals — net bullish tilt. But here's the nuance: many buy signals (APH, TEL, CME, FSS) sit near all-time highs or 52-week peaks, meaning limited upside room. The strongest setups are coming from lower RSI stocks breaking out of consolidation (KMI, NPO, MTD).

What I'm Watching:

1. KMI — Kinder Morgan: That $26M insider buy from the Executive Chairman is as bullish as it gets. RSI 41 with EMA10 crossing EMA30 after sustained accumulation. This is the cleanest setup on the list. Energy infrastructure plays like KMI benefit from stable cash flows and rising yields.

2. APH, TEL — Tech Hardware: Both show strong fundamentals and positioned for the 2026 gadget cycle, but heavy insider selling (APH: -$20.5M, TEL: -$11.5M) raises yellow flags. Executives often sell at peaks. I'd wait for a 5-10% pullback before entry.

3. CME — Prediction Markets: The FanDuel partnership is a legitimate catalyst expanding CME's TAM (total addressable market). RSI 55 isn't stretched. Earnings 47 days out gives runway. This is a quality name on a clean technical break.

4. QLYS — Qualys: Lowest RSI (21.7) on the sell side with EMA breakdown. Cybersecurity has been weak sector-wide. This could be a falling knife — wait for stabilization before attempting any mean-reversion play.

Trading Tips:

• Tiered entries: Don't go all-in on day one of a crossover. Scale in 1/3 positions on confirmation candles.
• Stops matter: EMA crossovers whipsaw. Set stops below recent swing lows (for buys) or above swing highs (for sells).
• Watch the 200-day SMA: Stocks above their 200-day SMA (like APH at $137 vs. SMA $105) have long-term trend support. Stocks below (like QLYS at $138 vs. SMA $135) face overhead resistance.
• VIX at 13.6 means complacency. When vol is this low, it can spike suddenly. Keep position sizes moderate and don't over-leverage.

Bottom Line: This is a decent signal day, but exercise patience. The market's low-vol, end-of-year drift can reverse fast. Focus on quality setups with insider buying (KMI), clear catalysts (CME), and reasonable RSI levels. Avoid chasing the high-RSI momentum plays (MGNI, HALO) and anything with heavy insider selling (APH, TEL) without a pullback.

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