EverHint Signal — EMA10 × SMA50 Crossover — December 17, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The EMA10 × SMA50 Crossover strategy detects fresh crossovers between the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) that occur on today's close.

Buy Signal (EMA10_x_SMA50_Buy): EMA(10) crosses above SMA(50) on today's close. The fast-moving EMA10 overtakes the slower SMA50 trend, suggesting strong upward momentum shift. Ideal for position trading with 4-12 week holding periods.

Sell Signal (EMA10_x_SMA50_Sell): EMA(10) crosses below SMA(50) on today's close. The fast-moving EMA10 drops below the slower SMA50 trend, suggesting weakening momentum or trend reversal. Can signal exit points or short entry opportunities.

Key Characteristics:

• Uses EMA vs SMA - EMA10 (faster, more responsive) vs SMA50 (slower, trend-following)
• More stable than EMA10 × EMA30, generating fewer but higher-quality signals
• Better suited for medium-term trends and position trading
• Lower whipsaw risk due to SMA50's stability

This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by RSI(14) — the 14-day Relative Strength Index. For buy signals, lower RSI values are ranked higher because they indicate more oversold conditions, offering better risk/reward entry points. For sell signals, lower RSI also ranks higher as it indicates weaker momentum and more confirmation of downside.

• RSI < 30: Oversold — Strong opportunity zone
• RSI 30-50: Neutral to slightly oversold — Good entry/exit zone
• RSI 50-70: Neutral to overbought — Momentum present but less room
• RSI > 70: Overbought — Caution warranted

We also overlay:

• Insider Net (USD): Net insider buying or selling over the last 90 days (Purchases - Sales only)
• Days to Earnings: Proximity to the next earnings report affects volatility risk
• Market Cap: Company size for position sizing and liquidity considerations

These signals are for educational use and back-testing. They highlight technical momentum setups, not fundamental analysis. Always check the broader market context before trading.

📈 Buy-Side Signals (13 Total)

Field Notes:

• Insider Net: Net insider buying (+) or selling (-) over the last 90 days. Only includes actual Purchases (P) and Sales (S), excluding Awards (A), Exercises (M), and Tax payments (F).
• Days → Earnings: Days until next earnings report. TTC reports TODAY (0 days = extreme volatility risk). <7 days = high volatility risk, 7-30 days = moderate risk, >30 days = lower event risk.
• RSI(14): Relative Strength Index on 14-day basis. Lower values indicate more oversold conditions on buy signals.

Recent Headlines (Buy Signals):

• DLB - Dolby Laboratories: CEO Kevin Yeaman exercised options and sold 36,699 shares at $66.91 on 11/24. Gifted 16,348 shares on 11/26.
• V - Visa: Multiple executive sales in November. CFO Chris Suh, CTO Rajat Taneja, and others had tax withholdings and sales. Chief Risk Officer Paul Fabara sold 2,172 shares at $325.93 on 11/21.
• GPN - Global Payments: Director Robert Baldwin purchased 10,392 shares at $81.42 on 12/11 and 3,000 shares at $80.25 on 12/10 (strong bullish insider signal totaling +$1.09M).
• TTC - The Toro Company: Reports earnings TODAY. SVP Gregory Janey had tax withholding on 9/18. High-risk play with earnings imminent.
• IT - Gartner: No recent insider activity. Stock trading at $251.29.
• CMCSA - Comcast: RSI 78.4 indicates already overbought on this buy signal—proceed with extreme caution.

📉 Sell-Side Signals (Top 15)

Field Notes:

• Insider Net: Net insider buying (+) or selling (-) over the last 90 days. Only includes actual Purchases (P) and Sales (S).
• Days → Earnings: Days until next earnings report. APH reports in 42 days, LOGI in 41 days.
• RSI(14): Lower values indicate weaker momentum and more confirmation of potential downside. MCK at 24.2 is deeply oversold.

Recent Headlines (Sell Signals):

• BP - BP p.l.c.: Major CEO change announced. Meg O'Neill (former Woodside Energy CEO) appointed as new CEO effective April 1, 2026, replacing Murray Auchincloss. Stock up 2.1% on the news. Trump ordered "total blockade" of Venezuela oil tankers, lifting oil prices off multi-year lows. Petrobras deal for 49.99% of Lightsource bp subsidiaries in Brazil solar energy. Analysts say "worth far more than market believes."
• APH - Amphenol: Upgraded to Buy with $148 target (13% upside) after record Q3. Revenue surged 53% y/y (41% organic), driven by IT/datacenter and communications demand. Strategic M&A (Trexon, CommScope CCS) strengthens defense, datacom, industrial segments. President of HES Division Luc Walter sold 152,318 shares at $134.65 on 10/24 (major insider sale of -$20.5M).
• NVT - nVent Electric: Increased quarterly dividend to $0.21 (5% increase from $0.20). Payable Feb 6, 2026. SVP Randolph Wacker had tax withholding on 10/15.
• VLO - Valero Energy: Multiple institutional activity. Caldwell Trust acquired new position on 12/15.
• ZG - Zillow Group: Multiple executive sales in November. CEO Jeremy Wacksman sold 10,855 shares at $69.99 on 11/14. CFO Jeremy Hofmann sold 7,865 shares at $69.53. Directors also selling. Total insider sales: -$431K.
• LOGI - Logitech: Director Neela Montgomery sold 5,833 shares at $120.61 on 10/31. Stock now at $106.54 (down from sale price).
• MCK - McKesson: RSI 24.2 is deeply oversold—potential bounce candidate but confirm sector trends first.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop: Today the S&P 500 dropped -1.2% to close at 6,721, Nasdaq fell harder at -1.9% to 22,696, and the Dow declined -0.6% to 47,886. Tech-led selloff dominated as investors rotated out of mega-cap names. The VIX spiked to 17.62 (up 7.1%), indicating elevated volatility—not panic territory, but caution is warranted. Small-caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 down -1.1%, suggesting defensive positioning. Bitcoin dropped -2.4% to $85,706, and Ethereum fell -5.1% to $2,811, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. Treasury yields eased slightly (10Y at 4.149%, down 3 bps), offering modest support for growth names. Overall: Risk-off environment with tech weakness and rising volatility.

Given this backdrop, today's EMA10 × SMA50 crossovers carry significant weight as medium-term trend signals. The SMA50's slower nature means these crossovers are more deliberate than the faster EMA10 × EMA30 setups—they confirm trend changes rather than just momentum blips.

The 13 buy signals emerging include some intriguing contrarian plays. DLB (RSI 48.2) and ESS (RSI 51.9) are relatively oversold, offering better entry points. But watch out for CMCSA (RSI 78.4) and TTC (RSI 73.8)—these are already extended. TTC reports earnings TODAY (0 days), making it extremely high-risk. GPN's insider buying (+$1.09M) by director Robert Baldwin is a strong bullish signal worth noting.

On the sell side, the 26 signals include some deeply oversold names that might be due for a bounce. MCK (RSI 24.2), HQY (RSI 26.5), and PCVX (RSI 27.0) are all healthcare names showing extreme weakness—this could be sector-specific pressure. APH's massive insider sale (-$20.5M) is concerning despite the upgrade to Buy. BP's CEO transition news is a major catalyst, with Meg O'Neill taking over in April 2026.

Energy sector showing broad weakness: BP, VLO, VAL all on sell signals. This aligns with oil price pressure despite Trump's Venezuela blockade lifting prices temporarily.

Trading Tips:

• Respect the SMA50: These crossovers are more stable than EMA × EMA signals. They have less whipsaw risk but also react slower.
• Watch Deeply Oversold Names: MCK, HQY, PCVX could be bounce candidates, but confirm with sector analysis first.
• Avoid Earnings Today: TTC reports earnings in hours—this is not a swing trade, it's a lottery ticket.
• Follow Insider Activity: GPN's director buying (+$1.09M) is bullish. APH's executive sale (-$20.5M) is bearish. ZG's executive selling is concerning.
• Position Size for Volatility: With VIX at 17.62, use smaller position sizes and 5-7% stops rather than 8-10%.
• 4-12 Week Horizon: These are position trades, not day trades. Scale in over 3-5 days and give them time to work.

Remember: SMA50 crossovers are trend-following signals. They work best in trending markets, not choppy ranges. In this risk-off environment, focus on quality names with strong fundamentals and avoid chasing momentum.

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No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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