EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Aggressive Momentum — December 09, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

Aggressive Momentum is a swing-trading style that hunts for “triple-threat” setups: strong upside momentum, elevated volume, and high volatility. It’s designed for traders willing to lean into high-beta names for 1–4 week swings, accepting sharper drawdowns in exchange for larger potential moves.

For this variant, signals fire when a stock is pressing toward or through its highs, with volume significantly above its recent norm and realized volatility already elevated. The idea: price is already in motion, institutions are active, and the tape is confirming the move rather than fighting it.

This is strictly an experimental scanner built on publicly available data. It’s meant for idea generation, education, and back-testing—not for blind entries or automated trading.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

For today’s Aggressive Momentum run, only one stock cleared all filters:

• We focus on:
  • Volume thrust vs. 20-day average (how “loud” the breakout is)
  • Distance to 52-week high (are we at/near the top of the range?)
  • Medium-term momentum (10-, 21-, 63-day rate of change)
  • Relative strength vs. SPY (21-day)
• We overlay:
  • Net insider activity over the last 90 days (open-market buys vs. sells)
  • Days until next earnings (event risk)
  • Analyst expectations for the current/next fiscal year

Because there is just one qualifying symbol, it appears as Rank 1 by default. Think of this report as a deep dive on a single, aggressive swing idea, not a broad watchlist.

🔥 Breakout Signals (Aggressive Momentum)

Table ranked by volume thrust and overall momentum profile.

Field notes on EXAS (Exact Sciences Corp.)

• Tape & Momentum
  • Price closed around $100.90, sitting at ~100% of its 52-week high.
  • Volume thrust ~2.37× vs. 20-day dollar volume (~$699.8M/day), a strong sign of institutional participation.
  • Short-term momentum:
    • 10-day ROC ≈ +30%
    • 21-day ROC ≈ +7%
    • 63-day ROC ≈ +121%
  • Relative strength vs SPY (21-day) ≈ +59%, meaning EXAS has dramatically outperformed the broad market over the past month.
  • Volatility (63-day) ≈ 58% annualized – firmly in high-beta territory.
• Trend Structure
  • Price is well above its medium- and long-term trend anchors:
    • 50-day MA ≈ $62.85
    • 200-day MA ≈ $52.34
  • This is not a bottom-fishing setup; it’s a classic “trend that has already proved itself,” with price extended far above key moving averages.
• Size & Liquidity
  • Market cap ≈ $19.1B (mid/large cap healthcare).
  • 20-day average dollar volume ≈ $700M, which is very liquid for swing trading and usually friendly for scaling in/out without major slippage.
• Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
  • Net open-market insider flow: about –$1.3M (all from reported sales, no open-market purchases in this window).
  • Interpretation:
    • Net selling at or near highs is not automatically bearish, but for an aggressive momentum play, it’s a yellow flag.
    • It suggests insiders are taking some profits into strength rather than leaning in with fresh buys.
• Earnings & Event Risk
  • Next earnings date on record: 2026-02-18 (AMC).
  • From the 2025-12-09 signal date, that’s roughly 71 days away.
  • For a 1–4 week swing horizon, earnings are not an immediate catalyst, but they sit on the medium-term horizon if you plan to hold through multiple legs.

Recent Headlines (Context)

In the supplied news universe there were no company-specific headlines for EXAS over the last few days. That means this breakout looks primarily tape-driven—a combination of prior catalysts, positioning, and trend continuation—rather than a single obvious news event.

For aggressive momentum traders, this can cut both ways:

• Pro: No fresh “one-and-done” news shock that fades in days; trend may be built on a broader fundamental and technical picture.
• Con: Without a discrete news hook, it may be harder to explain the move in simple narrative terms—this is more about price/volume behavior than story.

Field Notes: How to Read This Setup

• Volume Thrust (2.37×)
  Think of this as the “shouting level” of the breakout. Anything above 2× suggests unusual participation. For EXAS, 2.37× dollar volume on ~$700M typical flow flags heavy institutional activity, not just retail chasing.
• % of 52-Week High (100%)
  EXAS is sitting right at its 52-week high, which often acts as a psychological and technical trigger:
  • A clean breakout and hold above often attracts trend followers.
  • Failed breakouts can reverse sharply as late longs get trapped.
• Score (0–100)
  The composite score field is currently 0 for this run, so interpret it as “no additional quality boost from the composite model,” not as a negative rating. For this report, the heavy lifting is done by raw momentum/volume metrics, not the score column.
• Sector Context (Healthcare)
  Healthcare can be a highly event-driven, binary sector (trials, approvals, regulatory headlines), but this particular signal doesn’t have a fresh headline attached in the provided news feed. The move appears to be a pure momentum extension inside a larger uptrend.
• Risk Profile
  • With ~58% annualized volatility and the stock 60–90% above its longer MAs, pullbacks can be violent.
  • For swing traders, this is the type of name where:
    • Position sizing and hard stops matter more than usual.
    • Chasing extended intraday spikes without a plan can hurt quickly.

Analyst View & Forward Expectations

Using the nearest full-year estimates on record (fiscal year ending 2025-12-31):

• EPS Consensus
  • Average EPS estimate ≈ –0.70 per share.
  • Range: roughly –0.77 to –0.60, across 8 analysts.
  • That’s a relatively tight range for a still-loss-making company, suggesting reasonable visibility into the business.
• Revenue Expectations
  • Average revenue estimate ≈ $3.23B.
  • The spread between low and high revenue estimates is modest, again implying a fairly aligned analyst view.

Looking further out on the curve:

• Street models progressively less negative, then positive EPS:
  • 2026E EPS turns slightly positive (~+0.31).
  • 2027E–2029E show solidly positive EPS with a rising trajectory.

Taken together, the fundamental overlay looks like this:

• In the short run, EXAS is still a story of scaling and improving economics, not a cheap value name.
• In the longer run, analysts expect a path to profitability and growing earnings power, which can help sustain a longer multi-year trend if the company executes.

For this Aggressive Momentum scan, the key takeaway is that the technicals are doing the talking right now, while the Street is gradually warming to the longer-term story.

Vlad’s Take (EverHint)

Today’s market backdrop (2025-12-09):

• S&P 500 was essentially flat (≈–0.00%), while the Nasdaq gained about +0.31% and the Dow slipped roughly –0.34%—a mixed but modestly growth-tilted session.
• Russell 2000 small caps added about +0.42%, hinting at at least some risk-on participation beyond mega caps.
• The VIX closed near 16.9, up ~1.5% on the day but still in the “normal / slightly calm” zone—supportive for swing trades but not outright euphoric.
• The 10-year yield (^TNX) ticked up toward 4.18%, a mild headwind for long-duration growth, but not a regime change by itself.
• Crypto leaned risk-on, with Bitcoin up ~2.6% and Ethereum up ~6.5%, a classic sign that some capital is willing to chase high-beta risk.

Overall, this feels like a cautiously risk-on environment where aggressive momentum names can work, but backward-looking volatility is already elevated and macro hasn’t disappeared as a driver.

For EXAS specifically:

• The combination of fresh 52-week highs, 2.37× volume, and strong medium-term momentum fits exactly what this Aggressive Momentum variant is trying to surface.
• At the same time, the –$1.3M net insider selling over the last 90 days and the distance above long-term moving averages are solid reminders that you’re not early in this story—you’re trading the later, more explosive leg of a move that’s already in motion.

If you’re using this experimentally:

• Treat EXAS as a case study in:
  • How price behaves after a 2×+ volume breakout at 52-week highs.
  • How often such moves consolidate vs. fail over a 1–4 week horizon.
• Consider back-testing rules like:
  • Entry on a small pullback to a short-term moving average.
  • Risk defined under a recent swing low or breakout pivot.
  • Partial profit-taking once price moves X% beyond the breakout.

This way, the signal becomes input to a research process, not a stand-alone trading instruction.

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This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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