EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Breakout Standard — December 17, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The Momentum Swing: Breakout Standard strategy identifies stocks within 3% of their 52-week highs with strong volume confirmation—classic breakout momentum setups.

Signal Characteristics:

• Near 52W High: Within 3% of yearly peak
• Volume Surge: 1.5x+ average volume (institutional buying)
• Momentum Confirmation: Price above key moving averages
• Holding Period: 1-4 weeks (swing trading timeframe)
• Risk Level: Medium

What Makes This Signal:

• Stock showing strong momentum near or at all-time highs
• Increased volume confirms institutional interest (smart money participation)
• Breaking out or consolidating near resistance levels
• Quality score (0-1) ranks setups by technical strength

Ideal For: Swing traders looking for breakout opportunities with confirmed momentum. These are "buy high, sell higher" setups where strength begets strength.

This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by composite quality score (0-1 scale). Higher scores indicate stronger technical setups based on multiple factors:

• Rate of change (momentum velocity)
• Relative strength vs SPY (outperformance)
• Volume patterns (institutional participation)
• Moving average alignment (trend confirmation)
• Volatility characteristics (risk profile)

We also overlay:

• Vol Thrust: Volume ratio vs 20-day average (1.5x+ required)
• % of 52W High: How close to yearly peak (higher = stronger)
• Insider Net (USD): Net insider buying or selling over the last 90 days (Purchases - Sales only)
• Days to Earnings: Proximity to the next earnings report affects volatility risk

These signals are for educational use and back-testing. They highlight technical momentum setups, not fundamental analysis. Always check the broader market context before trading.

🚀 Breakout Signals (Top 15 of 24)

Field Notes:

• Vol Thrust: Volume ratio vs 20-day average. FULT at 2.66x and ESTA at 2.83x show exceptional buying pressure.
• % of 52W High: 15 of 24 signals are AT 52-week highs (100%). AMR, ENVA, ESLT, FULT, IMVT, MTB, RGLD, and MGA all at yearly peaks.
• Insider Net: Only calculated from actual Purchases (P) and Sales (S). Awards (A), Exercises (M), and Tax payments (F) excluded.
  • AMR: Director Courtis Kenneth purchased $103k worth (bullish insider buying at 52W high!)
  • ROIV: Massive insider selling -$51.2M by 10% owner Ramaswamy Vivek and executives
  • CMC, ZION, ESTA, RTX all show moderate insider selling
• Days → Earnings: CMC reports in 22 days (soonest). MTB and WBS both report in 30 days. ESLT has 90 days until earnings (lowest event risk).
• Score Distribution: 7 signals score 75+, indicating exceptional technical quality. Only 2 signals below 50.

Recent Headlines (Breakout Signals):

• CMC - Commercial Metals: Completed $1.84B acquisition of Foley Products Company on 12/15—major expansion into precast concrete and pipe. Announced credit facility amendment increasing borrowing capacity from $600M to $1.0B, extending maturity to 2030. Named to Newsweek's America's Most Responsible Companies 2026 list (4th consecutive year). Insider: SVP Halloran sold $373k worth on 10/31. Featured as "High Earnings Yield Value Pick" and "Top Momentum Stock" by analysts. Stock up 5.53% in past week.
• ENVA - Enova International: CEO Fisher David sold $735k worth on 10/27 and $755k on 9/19 via option exercises. Stock at perfect 52W high with score of 1.0—highest quality breakout signal today.
• AMR - Alpha Metallurgical Resources: Issued 2026 guidance expectations on 12/12. Director Courtis Kenneth S. made MULTIPLE insider purchases: $156k on 12/11, $42k on 12/10, $90k on 12/09, $115k on 12/08—strong insider conviction at 52W highs (bullish signal). Officer Horn sold small $53k position on 12/11.
• ESLT - Elbit Systems: Featured in "Massive Breakout in Industrials: 3 Must-Watch Stocks Now" article. Defense contractor at 52W high with explosive 2.45x volume surge—institutional buying.
• RGLD - Royal Gold: Presented at Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow on 12/16 and Very Independent Research Virtual Conference on 12/10. Featured as "Royal Gold Hits 52-Week High: What's Driving Its Performance?" article—attributed to near-record gold prices, strong Q3 results, and recent acquisitions. SVP Libner gifted 225 shares on 11/24.
• ROIV - Roivant Sciences: Hosted 2025 Investor Day on 12/11, highlighting "Continued Pipeline Progress and Outlook for Next Phase of Growth." Analyst article: "Roivant Signals Major Pipeline Momentum With Accelerated Timelines"—late-stage programs advancing. WARNING: Massive insider selling by 10% owner Ramaswamy Vivek (sold -$51.2M in November-December) and CEO Venker Eric. Despite positive pipeline news, insider actions are concerning.
• RTX - RTX Corporation: Featured in "Massive Breakout in Industrials: 3 Must-Watch Stocks Now" and "RTX Surges to Record Highs as Defense Orders Explode" articles. Germany requested permission to buy $3.5B worth of air defense missiles. Featured as "Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Term" by Zacks. Multiple executive sales including Chairman Calio, CFO Mitchill, and director Atkinson totaling -$1.36M in October-December. Stock near 52W high despite insider selling.
• TWLO - Twilio: Director Stafman Andrew sold massive $129M worth on 12/2. CFO Viggiano sold $924k on 10/9. CEO Shipchandler sold $987k on 10/3. Total insider sales exceed -$130M (major red flag).
• STLD - Steel Dynamics: Provided Q4 2025 earnings guidance on 12/17, estimating $1.65-$1.69 per share. Wall Street analysts warned that "Nucor, Steel Dynamics Warn of Profit Shortfalls"—Q4 earnings will fall short of expectations. All directors/officers received stock awards in November with tax withholdings.
• SQM - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile: Featured in "Why Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile Stock Popped Today"—China revoking lithium mining licenses pushed local lithium prices higher. Named among "3 Chemicals Stocks Set to Continue Their Winning Streaks in 2026."
• WBS - Webster Financial: Lowered prime lending rate to 6.75% from 7.00% effective 12/11. Presented at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference on 12/10. Officer Weidner received award grant on 10/28.
• BOKF - BOK Financial: Announced Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings conference call for 1/20/2026. Director BANGERT sold $106k worth on 10/30.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop: Today the S&P 500 dropped -1.2% to close at 6,721, Nasdaq fell harder at -1.9% to 22,696, and the Dow declined -0.6% to 47,886. Tech-led selloff dominated as investors rotated out of mega-cap names. The VIX spiked to 17.62 (up 7.1%), indicating elevated volatility—not panic territory, but caution is warranted. Small-caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 down -1.1%, suggesting defensive positioning. Bitcoin dropped -2.4% to $85,706, and Ethereum fell -5.1% to $2,811, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. Treasury yields eased slightly (10Y at 4.149%, down 3 bps), offering modest support for growth names. Overall: Risk-off environment with tech weakness and rising volatility.

Given this backdrop, today's 24 breakout signals present an interesting contrarian play. When the market sells off -1.2%, stocks STILL making 52-week highs are showing exceptional relative strength—these are the leaders that could lead the next rally once fear subsides.

The Financial Services sector dominates with 7 signals (ENVA, FULT, ZION, MTB, WBS, BOKF, ABCB), suggesting rotation into financials as interest rates stabilize and lending conditions improve. ENVA scoring a perfect 1.0 at 52W high is the purest breakout signal today—institutional buyers are aggressively accumulating despite market weakness.

Insider buying at AMR is notable: Director Courtis made FOUR purchases totaling $404k at 52W highs in the past week. That's rare conviction—insiders don't usually buy at peaks unless they expect significantly higher prices. AMR's 2026 guidance release + insider buying = worth watching closely.

Major red flags on ROIV and TWLO: Combined insider selling of -$181M is staggering. ROIV's 10% owner dumped -$51M in weeks, and TWLO's director sold -$129M. These aren't routine tax withholdings—these are open-market sales signaling zero confidence. Despite ROIV's positive Investor Day and pipeline progress, follow the smart money: they're exiting. Avoid these two despite breakout signals.

CMC's $1.84B Foley acquisition + credit facility expansion to $1.0B + "Most Responsible Company" recognition = growth story with balance sheet capacity. At 98% of 52W high with 90 score and only 22 days to earnings, this could break out post-results if they deliver.

Defense plays RTX and ESLT are both featured in "Massive Breakout in Industrials" articles. Germany's $3.5B missile order for RTX is substantial, but insider selling (-$1.36M) tempers enthusiasm. ESLT has cleaner action with 2.45x volume surge and no insider selling.

STLD warning on Q4 earnings shortfall is a trap—avoid despite the breakout signal. When management pre-announces misses, the breakout usually fails.

Gold play RGLD at 52W high benefits from near-record gold prices. With 2.18x volume surge and 56 days until earnings, there's room to run if gold stays elevated.

Trading Tips:

• Buy Strength in Weakness: Stocks hitting 52W highs during -1.2% market selloffs are showing leadership. These could explode when market recovers.
• Focus on Financial Sector Rotation: 7 of 24 signals are financials. This could be THE sector for Q1 2026. Watch ENVA, FULT, MTB.
• Respect Insider Actions: BUY where insiders buy (AMR), AVOID where insiders dump (ROIV, TWLO).
• Volume Matters: FULT (2.66x), ESTA (2.83x), ESLT (2.45x) show explosive institutional interest. These are "smart money" setups.
• Earnings Proximity: CMC (22 days), MTB/WBS/BOKF (30 days) are close to reports. Use tighter stops. ESLT (90 days) has more breathing room.
• VIX at 17.62 = Use Smaller Positions: Cut normal position size by 30-40% and set 7-9% stops. Volatility will shake out weak hands.
• Avoid Pre-Announced Misses: STLD warned on Q4—this breakout will likely fail. Don't fight management guidance.
• 1-4 Week Horizon: These are swing trades, not day trades. Set alerts at +10%, +20% targets and let winners run.

Sector Concentration: Financials (7), Basic Materials (4), Industrials (4), Healthcare (3), Consumer Cyclical (3). Financials are the clear winner today. If you believe in sector rotation into value/cyclicals as rates stabilize, this scanner is handing you the best setups.

Remember: Breakouts work best when they fail least. In a risk-off environment, the stocks STILL making highs have the strongest hands behind them. Quality over quantity—focus on scores 75+ and ignore the insider-selling names.

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No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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