EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Breakout Standard — December 18, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The Breakout Standard strategy identifies stocks within 3% of their 52-week highs while showing strong momentum and institutional interest through elevated volume. These aren't random price spikes—they're setups where stocks are consolidating near resistance or breaking out into new territory with volume confirming the move.

Today's scan captured 16 stocks meeting these criteria. Most are already at their 52-week highs (100%), with volume running 1.5x to 2.1x above their 20-day averages. This is experimental—a momentum scanner designed for swing traders looking at 1-4 week holding periods.

Not financial advice. This is back-testing data, signal-tracking, and market research. Do your own work.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Ranked by composite score (0-1 scale, higher = stronger setup). The score weighs momentum metrics, relative strength, volume patterns, and technical positioning. We've also layered in:

• Insider Net (USD): Open-market purchases minus sales (last 90 days). Awards and exercises excluded.
• Days → Earnings: Calendar days until next earnings report.
• Analyst Coverage: Number of analysts covering the stock (from estimates data).

Signals are experimental. Use them for research, back-testing, or watchlist building—not as buy/sell recommendations.

🚀 Breakout Signals

Market Cap Range: $1.8B (SVM) to $54.4B (NDAQ)

Field Notes

Volume Thrust: Measures current volume vs 20-day average. Values above 1.5x indicate institutional accumulation. Today's range: 1.55x to 2.16x. Highest: VTRS (2.16x), SVM (2.04x), GTX (2.09x).

% of 52W High: Distance from 52-week high. Most signals are at their highs (100%). SVM and NDAQ are within 3% (97-98%), signaling consolidation near resistance.

Score: Composite ranking (0-100 scale). Top tier: RGLD (100), EWBC (89), NVST (89). These combine strong momentum, relative strength vs SPY, and favorable technical positioning.

Insider Activity: Only 2 stocks show recent open-market transactions:

• AMR (Alpha Metallurgical): Director Kenneth Courtis bought $368K across 5 transactions (Dec 8-12). Bullish signal.
• EWBC (East West Bancorp): Sold $1.6M (CEO and COO sales). Neutral to bearish.
• PEN (Penumbra): Sold $3.2M (multiple insiders). Bearish.
• HCC (Warrior Met Coal): Sold $170K (CAO). Slight bearish.

Earnings Risk: Most signals report in late January to February (35-89 days out). Near-term risk is low. Exceptions: EWBC (35 days), STLD (41 days), CVCO (42 days)—consider position sizing if holding through earnings.

Sector Rotation: Basic Materials dominates with 6 signals (RGLD, SVM, AMR, STLD, TECK, HCC)—driven by metals/coal strength. Financial Services has 3 (EWBC, NDAQ, BEN). No Tech signals, suggesting rotation into value/cyclicals.

Recent Headlines

RGLD — Royal Gold: Surged to 52-week high as gold nears record prices. Strong Q3 results and recent acquisitions energized the stock. Buy recommendation from Zacks. Zacks, Dec 15

AMR — Alpha Metallurgical: Director scoops up $6.7M in shares (Motley Fool noted bulk of this activity). Company issued 2026 guidance expectations. Insider buying at 52-week highs = confidence signal. Motley Fool, Dec 18; PRNewswire, Dec 12

STLD — Steel Dynamics: Warned Q4 earnings will fall short of Wall Street expectations. Stock still at 52-week high despite guidance miss—market may have priced in steel sector challenges. Nucor also warned. WSJ, Dec 17; PRNewswire, Dec 17

BEN — Franklin Resources: Announced 3.1% dividend increase ($0.33/share) and expanded stock buyback program. Dividend raised every year since 1981. Business Wire, Dec 17

EWBC — East West Bancorp: CEO sold $1.3M in shares. COO sold $1.0M. Insider selling at highs—proceed with caution. SEC Form 4, Dec 11-12

PEN — Penumbra: Multiple insiders sold $3.2M. Director Arani Bose sold $2.3M. Zacks flagged as "Strong Growth Stock." Mixed signals—growth potential vs insider selling. Zacks, Dec 15

NDAQ — Nasdaq, Inc.: Mixed news—unrelated delisting notice for Mingzhu Logistics. Stock unaffected. GlobeNewsWire, Dec 11

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Today's market backdrop: S&P 500 -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.02%, Dow -0.31%. Slightly negative but essentially flat—no strong directional bias. The VIX closed at 16.82 (down 4.5%), indicating low volatility—complacent market conditions, which favor swing trades with room to run. Small-caps lagged slightly (Russell 2000 -0.39%), suggesting cautious positioning. Bitcoin dipped 1.0% to $85,318, Ethereum -0.6% to $2,815—crypto weakness may signal broader risk-off sentiment brewing. Treasury yields fell slightly (10Y at 4.12%), supporting growth names. Overall: Neutral to cautiously bullish environment with low event risk.

Given this backdrop, the Breakout Standard signals look solid. Low VIX means less choppy price action—momentum setups have breathing room. Key observations:

1. Insider buying at AMR is noteworthy—director purchasing $368K across multiple days at 52-week highs signals conviction. This is rare. Most insiders sell at highs.

2. Basic Materials strength—6 of 17 signals. RGLD and SVM are precious metals plays (gold/silver rallying). AMR, STLD, TECK, HCC are coal/steel/copper. If you believe the commodity supercycle narrative, this sector deserves attention.

3. Insider selling at EWBC and PEN is a yellow flag. Both are at 52-week highs with executives selling. Not necessarily bearish (could be diversification), but worth noting. If entering, consider tiered entries or tighter stops.

4. Steel sector warning: STLD guided Q4 earnings lower. Stock didn't collapse—suggests market knew. But be cautious. If steel margins compress, STLD and AMR (coal for steel) could face headwinds.

5. Earnings timing is favorable—most reports are 40-90 days out. Swing trades have runway before event risk. Exceptions: EWBC (35 days), STLD (41 days), CVCO (42 days)—tighten stops if holding into earnings.

Trade setup: With VIX at 16.82, consider standard stops (5-7% below entry). Quality names like RGLD, EWBC, and NVST have analyst coverage (3-11 analysts each). Lower-quality setups (HCC, TECK, GTX) warrant smaller position sizes.

Focus on names with clean technicals and no insider selling. Top 3 for further research: RGLD (gold thesis + no insider headwinds), NVST (healthcare, 100% of highs, strong score), AMR (insider buying + commodity momentum).

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