EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Breakout Standard — December 22, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

Breakout Standard is a momentum swing strategy designed to capture stocks breaking out to new 52-week highs with strong volume confirmation. These are the classic breakout setups that institutional traders watch.

Core Criteria:

• Within 3% of 52-week high — stocks at or near all-time recent highs
• Volume thrust 1.5x+ — significant buying pressure above 20-day average
• Momentum confirmation — positive price action across multiple timeframes
• Holding period: 1-4 weeks (swing trading timeframe)
• Risk level: Medium

Unlike aggressive breakout variants that chase extreme moves, this strategy focuses on quality over noise. We're looking for stocks with sustained institutional interest, not one-day wonders. The 3% buffer ensures you're catching the strongest names that are either breaking out fresh or consolidating near resistance before the next leg up.

This is an experimental scanner. Signals are for educational and research purposes only.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Breakout signals are ranked by composite quality score (0-100 scale). This score weighs multiple factors including momentum strength, relative strength vs SPY, volume characteristics, and price position relative to moving averages. Higher scores indicate higher-quality setups with better risk/reward profiles.

We've overlaid:

• Insider Net Flows (last 90 days) — calculated from open-market purchases minus sales only
• Days to Earnings — time until next earnings report
• Volume Thrust — current volume vs 20-day average (e.g., 2.0x = 100% above average)
• % of 52W High — how close to the peak (100% = at 52-week high)

These signals are designed for educational use and back-testing. Always do your own due diligence.

🚀 Breakout Signals

13 stocks triggered fresh breakout signals today.

Field Notes

Perfect Score:

• RYAAY (Ryanair) — Score 100, the cleanest breakout setup today. European budget airline at fresh highs with 1.6x volume, strong relative strength (RS 0.143 vs SPY), and positive momentum across all timeframes (+32.5% over 63 days). Earnings in 35 days.

High-Quality Healthcare:

• FOLD (Amicus Therapeutics) — Score 87, biotech at 52w high with 1.84x volume and exceptional 63-day momentum (+65.8%). Heavy insider selling ($1.9M) from CEO and executives exercising and selling. Volatile (vol63 62.3%) but strong relative strength (RS 0.413).
• XENE (Xenon Pharma) — Score 34, at 52w high but recent 10-day pullback (-2.9%). Insider selling ($1.0M) including CEO transactions. Moderate volume thrust (1.52x).
• ABVX (Abivax) — Score 18, added to Nasdaq Biotech Index effective Dec 22. Highest volume thrust (2.37x) but negative short-term momentum. Trading at $138.72 after explosive 63-day run (+68.7%).

Industrials Strength:

• RYAAY, FDX, HII, VMI — 4 of 13 signals from industrials, suggesting sector rotation
• FDX (FedEx) — Score 67, just reported strong Q2 earnings (beat estimates), raised guidance. CEO Raj Subramaniam discussing Network 2.0 transformation and logistics resilience. At 52w high post-earnings.
• HII (Huntington Ingalls) — Score 36, defense contractor at $353.52 with 2.02x volume thrust. Modest insider selling ($247K). Strong 63-day momentum (+28%).
• VMI (Valmont Industries) — Score 2 (lowest), just shy of 52w high at 97.6%. Infrastructure play with weak recent momentum.

Extreme Volume Anomaly:

• JHG (Janus Henderson) — 10.53x volume thrust, by far the highest. Asset manager at 52w high but score only 45 due to weak 63-day performance (+5.8%). This volume spike warrants investigation—possible news, block trades, or institutional accumulation.

Materials:

• SBSW (Sibanye Stillwater) — Score 86, South African precious metals miner breaking out. Strong 63-day momentum (+58.8%) and relative strength (RS 0.262). High volatility (vol63 65.8%).
• RIO (Rio Tinto) — Score 31, global mining giant at $80.10. Lower volatility (vol63 21.1%) but modest momentum (+25.8% over 63 days).

Technology:

• VICR (Vicor) — Score 70, power component manufacturer with highest volume thrust (2.07x) among quality names. Exceptional 63-day run (+102.9%) but modest insider selling ($248K). High volatility (79.5%).
• FSLR (First Solar) — Score 13, solar manufacturer at 52w high despite sector headwinds. Insider selling ($1.5M) from directors. Moderate momentum (+29.8% over 63 days).

Insider Activity Summary:

• Bearish: FOLD -$1.9M, XENE -$1.0M, FSLR -$1.5M (all executive selling via option exercises)
• Modest Bearish: VICR -$248K, HII -$247K, VMI -$154K
• No Activity: RYAAY, SBSW, FDX, HTHT, JHG, RIO, ABVX

Earnings Proximity:

• < 40 days: RYAAY (35d), JHG (39d) — volatility risk approaching
• 40-70 days: Most names — moderate event risk window
• > 80 days: FDX (86d), HTHT (87d) — lower earnings-related volatility

Recent Headlines

FDX (FedEx):

• Q2 Earnings Beat: Reported $4.82 EPS vs $4.07 estimate; revenue $23.5B vs $22.0B year-ago. Raised full-year outlook.
• Network 2.0 Transformation: CEO Raj Subramaniam emphasized resilience over reach in logistics strategy overhaul
• Analyst Coverage: Barclays and multiple analysts bullish on business turnaround, particularly package volume growth

ABVX (Abivax):

• Nasdaq Biotech Index Addition: Effective Dec 22, 2025 (today) — significant milestone for visibility
• ECCO 2026: Accepted 22 abstracts evaluating obefazimod in inflammatory bowel disease, including oral presentation on preclinical anti-fibrotic findings
• CFO Commentary: Didier Blondel called index inclusion "significant milestone for Abivax"

Other Names:

• RYAAY: No major news; European budget airline sector quiet
• FOLD: Ongoing insider activity (CEO and executives exercising options)
• HTHT: H World Group (Chinese hotel operator) consolidating near highs
• JHG: Extreme volume spike unexplained by recent news
• FSLR, VICR, HII, XENE, SBSW, RIO, VMI: No significant headlines

Field Notes

Volume Thrust Context:

• Extreme (>5x): JHG at 10.53x — investigate for catalyst
• Strong (2.0x-3.0x): ABVX (2.37x), VICR (2.07x), HII (2.02x)
• Moderate (1.5x-2.0x): FOLD (1.84x), FSLR (1.82x), SBSW (1.72x), RIO (1.64x), HTHT (1.62x), RYAAY (1.60x), VMI (1.59x)
• Baseline (1.5x): FDX (1.54x), XENE (1.52x)

All signals meet the 1.5x minimum threshold, confirming institutional interest.

% of 52W High:

• At Peak (100%): 12 of 13 signals — rare concentration
• Near Peak (97-99%): VMI (97.6%), HTHT (99.1%)

This clustering at 52-week highs suggests broad breakout strength across sectors.

Score Distribution:

• Elite (70-100): 4 signals — RYAAY, FOLD, SBSW, VICR
• Quality (50-69): 2 signals — FDX, HTHT
• Standard (30-49): 3 signals — JHG, HII, XENE
• Speculative (<30): 4 signals — RIO, ABVX, FSLR, VMI

Higher scores indicate better multi-factor alignment (momentum + RS + volume + trend).

Sector Rotation:

• Industrials: 4 signals (31%) — RYAAY, FDX, HII, VMI
• Healthcare: 3 signals (23%) — FOLD, XENE, ABVX
• Basic Materials: 2 signals (15%) — SBSW, RIO
• Technology: 2 signals (15%) — VICR, FSLR
• Financial Services: 1 signal (8%) — JHG
• Consumer Cyclical: 1 signal (8%) — HTHT

Industrials dominance suggests economic optimism and capex/infrastructure rotation.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Context: Sunday December 22, 2025 close — S&P 500 +0.19%, Nasdaq -0.09%, Dow +0.31%. Mixed session with value and blue-chips slightly outperforming tech. The VIX closed at 14.12 (-6.86%), indicating low volatility and a complacent market environment—ideal conditions for breakout strategies. Small-caps (Russell 2000) gained 0.64%, outperforming the Nasdaq, suggesting risk-on appetite and rotation into domestically-focused names. Treasury yields relatively stable. Bitcoin -0.14%, Ethereum -0.23%. Overall: Mildly bullish, low-vol environment with sector rotation underway.

Strategy Implications:

Low VIX (14.12) gives you breathing room for swing trades. This is the sweet spot for breakout strategies—enough momentum to sustain moves, but not enough volatility to trigger premature stops. The Russell 2000 outperformance (+0.64% vs Nasdaq -0.09%) confirms broader participation beyond mega-cap tech.

What I'd watch:

1. RYAAY (Score 100) — This is the blueprint breakout. Perfect technicals, clean chart, European exposure diversifies US-heavy portfolios. Budget airlines benefit from consumer spending resilience. Earnings in 35 days means you have 3-4 weeks of runway before event risk. Entry: current levels or pullback to MA10 ($70.46).

2. JHG's 10.53x volume spike — Asset managers don't randomly spike volume like this without reason. Could be institutional block trades, index rebalancing, or merger/acquisition rumors. If you can't identify the catalyst, pass. But if news emerges, this could be the early mover signal.

3. FDX post-earnings breakout — Earnings beats that lead to immediate 52w highs are high-conviction signals. CEO messaging around "resilience over reach" suggests strategic clarity. The logistics transformation story has legs. Consider this a core position for 4-6 week hold.

4. Healthcare concentration risk — FOLD, XENE, ABVX all show heavy insider selling and high volatility (60%+ annualized). These are binary plays, not core holdings. If you trade these, size accordingly and use wide stops. ABVX's Nasdaq Biotech Index addition could provide technical support from passive ETF flows.

5. Industrials rotation — 31% of signals from one sector isn't random. Market may be pricing in infrastructure spending, defense budgets (HII), or global trade recovery (RYAAY, FDX). This is a thematic trade, not just individual stock picks.

6. Insider selling headwinds — FOLD (-$1.9M), XENE (-$1.0M), FSLR (-$1.5M) all have executives cashing out via option exercises. Not always bearish (tax planning, diversification), but it's a yellow flag when combined with high volatility.

Tiered Entry Strategy:

With VIX at 14, you can afford slightly tighter stops than usual. For high-score names (RYAAY, FOLD, SBSW, VICR), consider:

• Aggressive: Enter at current levels, stop 3-5% below MA50
• Conservative: Wait for 2-3% pullback to MA10, tighter 2-3% stops

For low-score names (ABVX, FSLR, VMI), these are watch-list only unless you have strong conviction on sector catalysts.

Risk Management:

Breakout strategies work until they don't. The 52-week high is both support and resistance—if a stock fails to hold above the breakout level on volume, it's a failed breakout and you exit immediately. Don't average down on broken breakouts.

Given low VIX, position sizing can be slightly more aggressive (1.5-2% risk per trade vs 1% in high-vol environments). But respect the rule: one failed breakout = immediate exit.

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This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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