EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Breakout Ultra Tight — December 17, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The Momentum Swing: Breakout Ultra Tight strategy identifies the highest-conviction breakout candidates—stocks trading within 1% of their 52-week highs with strong volume confirmation.

Signal Characteristics:

• Ultra Tight to 52W High: Within 1% of yearly peak (vs 3% for standard breakout)
• Volume Surge: 1.8x+ average volume (institutional buying required)
• Momentum Confirmation: Price above all key moving averages
• Holding Period: 1-4 weeks (swing trading timeframe)
• Risk Level: Medium-High

What Makes This Signal:

• Stock at or within a whisker of all-time yearly highs
• Increased volume confirms smart money accumulation
• Breaking out or consolidating at peak resistance
• Quality score (0-100) ranks setups by technical strength

Ideal For: Aggressive traders seeking early entries in the strongest breakout candidates. These are "buy the strength" setups where momentum begets momentum. Within 1% of highs = lowest risk of failed breakout.

This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by composite quality score (0-100 scale). Higher scores indicate stronger technical setups based on:

• Rate of change (momentum velocity across multiple timeframes)
• Relative strength vs SPY (outperformance vs market)
• Volume patterns (institutional participation)
• Moving average alignment (trend confirmation)
• Volatility characteristics (risk profile)

We overlay:

• Vol Thrust: Volume ratio vs 20-day average (1.8x+ required for ultra-tight)
• % of 52W High: How close to yearly peak (99-100% = ultra-tight)
• Insider Net (USD): Net insider buying or selling over the last 90 days (Purchases - Sales only)
• Days to Earnings: Proximity to next earnings report

Critical Distinction: This is the ultra-tight variant—only stocks within 1% of 52-week highs qualify. These are the highest-conviction breakouts with the lowest risk of failure. When a stock is at all-time highs with surging volume, the path of least resistance is usually higher.

Signals are for educational use and back-testing. Always check broader market context before trading.

🚀 Ultra-Tight Breakout Signals (9 Total)

Field Notes:

• % of 52W High: 8 of 9 signals are at EXACT 52-week highs (100.0%). TXT at 99.4%, STLD at 99.8%—both within the 1% ultra-tight threshold. This is the tightest cohort we can scan for—highest conviction.
• Vol Thrust: ESTA leads at 2.83x average volume—explosive institutional buying. FULT at 2.66x, ESLT at 2.45x, HLT at 2.44x all show massive accumulation. Even the lowest (MGA at 1.83x) exceeds our 1.8x minimum.
• Score Distribution: AMR at perfect 100 is the technical ideal. ESLT (71) and RGLD (70) are tier-1 setups. STLD scores only 8 despite being at highs—technical quality is weak (more on this below).
• Insider Net: AMR is the standout with +$426k insider buying. Director Courtis Kenneth made FIVE purchases from 12/8-12/11 at $176-190 range, totaling $479,837. Officer Horn sold -$53,339 (minor offset). Net insider buying AT 52W highs is extremely bullish—insiders don't buy peaks unless they expect significantly higher prices.
  • ESTA: 10% owner JW Asset Management sold -$163k on 11/7 (over a month ago, less relevant)
  • All others: No P/S activity in last 90 days
• Days → Earnings: ESLT has longest runway at 90 days (lowest event risk). FULT reports soonest in 34 days. AMR at 72 days has room to run before earnings volatility.
• Sector Concentration: 3 Basic Materials (AMR, RGLD, STLD), 2 Industrials (ESLT, TXT), 2 Consumer Cyclical (MGA, HLT), 1 Financial Services (FULT), 1 Healthcare (ESTA). Commodities/materials dominance suggests inflation hedge positioning.

Recent Headlines (Ultra-Tight Breakouts):

• STLD - Steel Dynamics: WARNING - Issued Q4 2025 earnings guidance today ($1.65-1.69 per share), with Wall Street Journal reporting "Nucor, Steel Dynamics Warn of Profit Shortfalls"—Q4 earnings will fall "well short" of expectations. This is a major red flag. Stock at 99.8% of 52W high despite pre-announced miss suggests the market hasn't fully priced in the bad news. Score of 8 (lowest of the group) confirms weak technical quality. Avoid this signal despite the ultra-tight breakout pattern—guidance miss trumps technicals.

• AMR - Alpha Metallurgical Resources: Issued 2026 guidance expectations on 12/12. Director Courtis Kenneth made FIVE insider purchases totaling +$427k net over 4 trading days (12/8, 12/9, 12/10, 12/11 x2) at $176-190 range. Stock now at $198—insider purchases are already profitable. This level of concentrated buying by a director AT 52W highs is rare and signals extreme conviction. Officer Horn's -$53k sale on 12/11 is noise compared to director's buying spree.

• RGLD - Royal Gold: Featured in Zacks article "Royal Gold Hits 52-Week High: What's Driving Its Performance?" on 12/15—attributed to near-record gold prices, strong Q3 results, and recent acquisitions. Presented at Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow on 12/16 and Very Independent Research Virtual Conference on 12/10. Gold at $4,378/oz (up 1% today per futures data) provides tailwind. SVP Libner gifted 225 shares on 11/24 (not a sale, neutral).

• ESLT - Elbit Systems: Defense contractor at perfect 52W high with explosive 2.45x volume. No recent news, but defense sector strength continues (see RTX in other scanner hitting highs on Germany missile orders). Clean technical setup with 90 days until earnings—plenty of time for trend to develop.

• HLT - Hilton Worldwide: At exact 52W high ($293) with 2.44x volume surge. Hospitality/travel sector strength. No recent news, suggesting pure technical breakout vs news-driven move.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop: Today the S&P 500 dropped -1.2% to close at 6,721, Nasdaq fell harder at -1.9% to 22,696, and the Dow declined -0.6% to 47,886. Tech-led selloff dominated as investors rotated out of mega-cap names. The VIX spiked to 17.62 (up 7.1%), indicating elevated volatility—not panic, but caution warranted. Small-caps underperformed with Russell 2000 down -1.1%, suggesting defensive positioning. Bitcoin dropped -2.4% to $85,706, Ethereum fell -5.1% to $2,811—crypto weakness confirms risk-off sentiment. Treasury yields eased (10Y at 4.149%, down 3 bps), but not enough to offset equity pressure. Overall: Risk-off environment with tech weakness and rising volatility.

Given this backdrop, the fact that we have 9 stocks at or within 1% of 52-week highs is remarkable. These are the leaders that refused to participate in today's selloff—or dipped and immediately recovered. This is relative strength in its purest form. When the market drops -1.2% and a stock makes new yearly highs, that's a signal institutional money is rotating INTO that name.

The AMR Story: This is the highest-conviction setup in the entire scanner today. Perfect score of 100, at exact 52W high, AND director Courtis bought +$427k net over 4 consecutive days. Directors don't drop $400k+ at peaks unless they have material non-public information expectations (legal insider knowledge of business trends). The buying at $176-190 and stock now at $198 shows his thesis is already working. With 72 days until earnings and 2026 guidance released on 12/12, this has room to run. AMR is a met coal supplier—China steel demand and coking coal prices drive the business. If director is buying, he sees strength ahead.

The STLD Trap: Wall Street Journal headline today: "Nucor, Steel Dynamics Warn of Profit Shortfalls." STLD issued Q4 guidance of $1.65-1.69, which the WSJ says will "fall well short of Wall Street's expectations." Score of 8 (vs AMR's 100) confirms weak technical quality despite being at 99.8% of 52W high. This is a classic pre-announced miss trap. When a company guides down and the stock hasn't fully sold off yet, the breakout usually fails. The ultra-tight signal is a false positive—avoid. If you're long STLD, exit immediately.

Gold Play RGLD: Near-record gold prices ($4,378/oz, up 1% today) + strong Q3 results + recent acquisitions = clean fundamental story. At exact 52W high with 2.18x volume and score of 70. Zacks article on 12/15 called out the breakout. With 56 days until earnings, this can run if gold holds elevated levels. Gold rallied today despite broader market selloff—safe haven bid. RGLD is a royalty company (low-cost business model, no mining operational risk). Quality play.

Defense Play ESLT: Defense contractor at 100% of 52W high with 2.45x volume (2nd highest in group). Score of 71 (tier-1). 90 days until earnings = longest runway. No news, which suggests pure institutional accumulation vs retail hype. Defense spending globally is elevated (Ukraine, Middle East tensions, China). Clean technical setup with no near-term event risk.

FULT Financial Breakout: Reports earnings soonest (34 days). At 100% of 52W high with 2.66x volume (2nd highest behind ESTA). Score of 49 (mid-tier). Financials benefiting from stable interest rates and improved lending conditions. With Fed likely done cutting in near-term, net interest margins stabilize. Small bank at $3.7B market cap—more nimble than mega-banks.

ESTA Healthcare: Highest volume thrust at 2.83x—most explosive buying pressure in the group. Score of 41 (mid-tier). 10% owner sold -$163k over a month ago (stale data, less relevant). At exact 52W high. Medical device company—volatile but high-growth. For aggressive traders only.

Trading Tips (Ultra-Tight Breakouts):

• Buy Strength, Not Weakness: These are at all-time highs—don't wait for pullbacks that may never come. Enter on breakout above today's high or on tomorrow's open if market stabilizes.
• Tight Stops: Place stops at 2-3% below entry (below recent consolidation). Ultra-tight breakouts that fail drop fast—don't give them room.
• Tier Your Entries: Don't go all-in at once. Buy 1/3 position today, 1/3 on confirmation tomorrow, 1/3 on further strength.
• AMR is the Best Setup: Perfect score + insider buying + 2026 guidance = highest conviction. Allocate largest position here.
• Avoid STLD: Pre-announced Q4 miss = broken setup. Don't fight negative guidance.
• RGLD for Gold Exposure: If you believe gold stays elevated, RGLD is the cleanest way to play it (royalty model, no mining risk).
• ESLT for Defense: 90 days until earnings = most time to develop trend. No event risk.
• VIX Warning: At 17.62, we're in "elevated" territory. Use 30-40% smaller position sizes than normal. If VIX spikes above 20, reduce exposure.
• Market Context: These held up during -1.2% selloff, but if S&P breaks below 6,700 tomorrow, even the strongest names will struggle. Watch market internals closely.

Best Setups Ranked:

1. AMR - Perfect score + insider buying + guidance released
2. ESLT - Defense strength + 90-day runway + 2.45x volume
3. RGLD - Gold tailwind + 70 score + no operational risk
4. FULT - Financial rotation + 2.66x volume + 34-day earnings catalyst
5. MGA - Auto supplier at highs (contrarian, sector weak)
6. ESTA - Highest volume (2.83x) but only 41 score (riskier)
7. TXT - Defense/aviation play, 99.4% of high (not quite peak)
8. HLT - Hospitality at peak (late-cycle play)
9. STLD - AVOID - Pre-announced earnings miss

If I had to pick 1-2 for tomorrow: AMR (insider conviction + perfect score) and ESLT (defense strength + longest runway). For gold bulls, add RGLD. Avoid STLD at all costs.

Remember: Ultra-tight breakouts work best when they work fast. If they don't move higher within 2-3 days, the momentum thesis is invalid—cut losses and move on. These are NOT buy-and-hold investments; they're short-term momentum swings.

Independent, data-driven signals.
No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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