EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Large Cap Only — December 16, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The Large Cap Only scanner targets momentum breakouts in blue-chip, institutional-quality names valued at $10 billion or more. This is the conservative end of the momentum spectrum—liquid, well-established companies that can absorb large capital inflows without price distortion.

The scanner looks for:

• Institutional quality — Companies with proven business models and strong balance sheets
• High liquidity — Deep markets that can handle large position sizes
• Momentum confirmation — Stocks breaking out or consolidating near 52-week highs with volume surges
• Lower volatility — Relative stability compared to mid-cap and small-cap names

This is not a value strategy—it's designed to capture momentum continuation in names that institutions are actively accumulating. The 1-4 week holding period makes this a swing trading approach, not a buy-and-hold strategy.

Think of it as following institutional money into quality names that are showing technical strength. These are stocks you can size appropriately without worrying about liquidity or bid-ask spreads.

This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by composite quality score (0-100 scale), which combines momentum strength, relative performance, technical setup quality, and risk-adjusted returns. Higher scores indicate cleaner, more robust setups.

We overlay three critical data points:

1. Insider Net Flow (90 days): Open-market purchases minus sales. Heavy insider selling during breakouts can signal caution—executives may be using momentum to exit positions.
2. Days to Earnings: Proximity to the next earnings report. Breakouts near earnings can create volatility risk or signal pre-positioning.
3. Market Cap: Company size matters for position sizing and liquidity considerations.

These signals are for educational use and back-testing. They highlight momentum continuation setups in institutional-quality names, not fundamental analysis. Always check the broader market context before trading.

🏛️ Large Cap Breakout Signals (13 Total)

Field Notes

Understanding the Metrics:

• Vol Thrust: Volume ratio vs 20-day average. UBS's 2.13x and ROIV's 2.08x show strong institutional accumulation—volume more than doubled.
• % of 52-Week High: 10 of 13 stocks are making fresh 52-week highs (100.0%)—textbook breakout behavior. Only RBC (97.6%) and BBVA (97.9%) are slightly below peaks.
• Score: Composite quality metric (0-100). UBS at 95.0 and LUV at 91.7 are exceptional setups. BBVA scored 0.0 despite volume—likely failed other quality filters.
• Insider Net: ROIV shows -$172.8M net insider selling (Vivek Ramaswamy and CEO liquidating heavily). TWLO shows -$130.9M (director Andrew Stafman sold $129M in one transaction Dec 2). Both are major red flags during breakouts.
• Days → Earnings: AAL and EWBC report in just 37 days (late January)—shortest window. DG reports in 86 days (March)—longest runway.

Sector Observations:

• Financial Services leads with 4 signals (UBS, PRU, EWBC, BBVA)—benefiting from stable rates and banking strength
• Industrials shows 3 signals (LUV, AAL, RBC)—airlines rallying on optimistic 2026 guidance; aerospace/bearings riding defense/industrial cycle
• Consumer has 2 signals (DG discount retail, RL luxury apparel)—divergent consumer themes
• Healthcare, Tech, Materials, Communication each have 1 signal

Market Context:

Monday, December 16, 2025 was a bifurcated session. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished essentially flat at 6800.25 (+0.002%), while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) rallied +0.56% to 23,111. The Dow (^DJI) declined -0.55%. Small caps weakened—Russell 2000 (^RUT) fell -0.28%. The VIX dropped -4.8% to 16.45, signaling low volatility and complacent market conditions.

This was a tech-led session with narrow leadership. Treasury yields fell slightly (10Y at 4.153%, -0.41%), providing modest support for growth names. Bitcoin rallied +1.6% to $87,832; Ethereum dipped -0.3%. The low VIX and positive Nasdaq suggest a favorable backdrop for momentum continuation strategies.

Recent Headlines

• UBS — UBS Group AG: Swiss banking giant rallying on stable European banking fundamentals. No major recent news; momentum appears technical/institutional.
• LUV — Southwest Airlines: CEO discussing fleet modernization and route expansion. Strong operational performance driving momentum into year-end.
• PRU — Prudential Financial: Life insurance and asset management strength. Stable rate environment supportive for insurers.
• DG — Dollar General: Discount retailer rallying after management outlined turnaround initiatives. Store remodeling and improved inventory management cited.
• AAL — American Airlines: Multiple analysts issued optimistic 2026 forecasts; stock rallied +2.47% Friday. CEO showcasing new Airbus A321XLR with premium seating, targeting transcontinental/transatlantic routes. Exploring Amazon LEO satellite WiFi partnership.
• ROIV — Roivant Sciences: CEO and major shareholder Vivek Ramaswamy dumping shares—sold $100M+ since September. Investor Day Dec 11 highlighted pipeline progress, but insider selling is egregious.
• RGLD — Royal Gold: Gold royalty company hitting fresh 52-week high as gold prices remain elevated. Presented at Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow. Zacks highlighted strong Q3 results and recent acquisitions.
• TKO — TKO Group Holdings: UFC/WWE parent company; Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson granted shares Nov 30; director Nick Khan selling regularly (-$1.1M net).
• RL — Ralph Lauren: Luxury apparel maker rallying on strong Q3 results and raised guidance. Premium pricing power remains intact.
• TWLO — Twilio Inc: Director Andrew Stafman sold $129M in a single transaction Dec 2—massive insider liquidation. No major negative news; this appears to be portfolio rebalancing but timing is suspect during breakout.
• EWBC — East West Bancorp: CEO and COO both selling shares in December (-$2.6M net); approaching earnings Jan 22.
• RBC — RBC Bearings: Aerospace/industrial bearings manufacturer; riding defense and commercial aerospace recovery. Minimal insider activity.
• BBVA — Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria: Spanish multinational bank; strong volume but low quality score suggests technical/risk concerns.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market backdrop: S&P flat, Nasdaq +0.56%, Dow -0.55%, Russell 2000 -0.28%. VIX at 16.45 (low volatility, complacent market). Treasury yields declining (10Y at 4.153%). Bitcoin +1.6%, Ethereum flat. This is a tech-led, narrow leadership environment—exactly the type of market where large-cap quality names can work, but you need to be selective about where you deploy capital.

What I see: 10 of 13 signals are at fresh 52-week highs—classic breakout behavior. Volume confirms institutional interest (average vol thrust 1.76x). But here's the concern: insider selling is concentrated but severe. ROIV's -$172.8M and TWLO's -$130.9M are not normal profit-taking—these are substantial liquidations by major insiders during breakouts. That's a yellow flag, not a stop sign, but it warrants caution.

The playbook for large caps:

1. Quality over quantity — Focus on top 5 scores (UBS, LUV, PRU, DG, TKO). These have the cleanest technical setups and risk/reward profiles.
2. Liquidity is your friend — All 13 names have deep markets. You can enter and exit without slippage. Use this advantage—don't chase, use limit orders 0.5-1% below current price.
3. Watch the VIX — At 16.45, volatility is subdued. If VIX spikes above 20, tighten stops immediately. Large caps can still move 3-5% on volatility events.
4. Insider selling context — ROIV and TWLO are compromised by heavy insider sales. If you trade these, size smaller and use tighter stops (3-5% max loss vs 7-10% for cleaner names).
5. Earnings proximity matters — AAL and EWBC report in 37 days. These could see pre-earnings run-ups OR increased volatility as earnings approach. Consider taking profits before the report if you're up 5-7%.
6. Sector diversification — Don't overload Financials (4 signals). Mix in Industrials (airlines look good) and Materials (RGLD riding gold strength).

Large-cap momentum checklist:

• ✅ Low VIX — Favorable for swing trades (tight stops less likely to get hit)
• ✅ Volume confirmation — All signals show 1.5x+ volume thrust
• ✅ Liquidity — No issues entering/exiting positions
• ⚠️ Insider selling — ROIV and TWLO compromised; proceed with caution
• ⚠️ Narrow market — Tech leading, other sectors lagging; if Nasdaq rolls over, these setups could fail quickly

Bottom line: This is a momentum-friendly environment for large caps, but the market has narrow leadership and insider activity suggests smart money is taking profits. Trade with defined stops (5-7% on clean setups, 3-5% on ROIV/TWLO), avoid overconcentration, and don't confuse a breakout with a buy-and-hold opportunity. Large caps move slower than mid-caps, but they can still reverse sharply—respect the technicals and don't overstay your welcome.

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