EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Mid Cap Focus — December 16, 2025
What This Signal Is (Quick)
The Mid Cap Focus scanner targets momentum breakouts in the market's growth sweet spot: companies valued between $2 billion and $20 billion. This is where you find:
- Established operations with proven business models
- Room to grow without mega-cap constraints
- Institutional attention with strong liquidity
- Balanced risk/reward between small-cap volatility and large-cap stability
The scanner looks for stocks showing strong momentum near 52-week highs, accompanied by volume surges that confirm institutional buying. This is not a value play—it's a momentum continuation strategy designed for swing traders with a 1-4 week holding period.
Think of it as scanning for "hot hands" in the mid-cap universe—stocks that institutions are actively accumulating as they break to new highs or consolidate near resistance.
This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.
How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)
Today's signals are ranked by composite quality score (0-100 scale), which weighs momentum strength, relative performance, and technical setup quality. Higher scores indicate stronger setups. We overlay three contextual data points:
- Insider Net Flow (90 days): Open-market purchases minus sales. Heavy insider selling during breakouts can signal caution—insiders may be using momentum to exit positions.
- Days to Earnings: Proximity to the next earnings report. Breakouts near earnings can signal pre-positioning or create volatility risk.
- % of 52-Week High: How close the stock is trading to its 52-week peak. Stocks at 100% are making new highs.
These signals are for educational use and back-testing. They highlight momentum continuation setups, not fundamental analysis. Always check the broader market context before trading.
🎯 Mid Cap Focus Breakout Signals (17 Total)
| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Last ($) | Vol Thrust | % of 52W High | Score | Mkt Cap | Insider Net (USD) | Days → Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ENVA | Enova International, Inc. | Financial Services | 158.34 | 1.72x | 97.4 | 98.1 | $3.9B | -$5.9M | 49 |
| 2 | HUBG | Hub Group, Inc. | Industrials | 43.40 | 1.75x | 99.5 | 95.6 | $2.6B | -$1.4M | 51 |
| 3 | RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | Basic Materials | 218.09 | 1.69x | 99.7 | 83.1 | $14.3B | — | 57 |
| 4 | IMVT | Immunovant, Inc. | Healthcare | 26.61 | 1.61x | 100.0 | 80.0 | $4.7B | — | 51 |
| 5 | PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 113.85 | 1.54x | 98.1 | 75.0 | $3.8B | — | 51 |
| 6 | ROIV | Roivant Sciences Ltd. | Healthcare | 22.94 | 2.08x | 100.0 | 65.0 | $16.0B | -$172.8M | 55 |
| 7 | AAL | American Airlines Group Inc. | Industrials | 15.99 | 1.70x | 100.0 | 60.0 | $10.6B | — | 37 |
| 8 | FOLD | Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. | Healthcare | 10.89 | 1.66x | 100.0 | 58.8 | $3.4B | -$1.9M | 64 |
| 9 | TKO | TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | Communication Services | 210.65 | 1.68x | 100.0 | 50.6 | $17.2B | -$1.1M | 71 |
| 10 | ESTA | Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. | Healthcare | 74.15 | 2.00x | 100.0 | 46.2 | $2.2B | — | 71 |
| 11 | EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | Financial Services | 114.47 | 1.61x | 99.7 | 35.0 | $15.7B | -$2.6M | 37 |
| 12 | LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | Consumer Defensive | 33.56 | 1.77x | 100.0 | 33.8 | $4.9B | — | 65 |
| 13 | HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | Basic Materials | 83.55 | 1.52x | 99.4 | 16.9 | $4.4B | -$1.6M | 58 |
| 14 | RRR | Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 62.67 | 1.64x | 99.5 | 15.0 | $3.7B | — | 56 |
| 15 | WTM | White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. | Financial Services | 2045.31 | 1.70x | 99.0 | 14.4 | $5.2B | — | 52 |
| 16 | RBC | RBC Bearings Incorporated | Industrials | 451.17 | 1.57x | 97.6 | 13.8 | $14.3B | — | 45 |
| 17 | AKRO | Akero Therapeutics, Inc. | Healthcare | 54.65 | 2.22x | 98.3 | 0.0 | $4.5B | -$1.7M | 73 |
Field Notes
Understanding the Metrics:
- Vol Thrust: Volume ratio vs 20-day average. AKRO's 2.22x means volume was 122% above normal—strong institutional activity.
- % of 52-Week High: IMVT, ROIV, AAL, FOLD, TKO, ESTA, and LAUR are all making fresh 52-week highs today—classic breakout behavior.
- Score: Composite quality metric (0-100). ENVA's 98.1 score is exceptional—strong momentum, relative strength, and technical setup.
- Insider Net: ROIV stands out with -$172.8M in net insider selling—CEO and insiders have been liquidating heavily. This is a major red flag during a breakout. ENVA shows -$5.9M, also notable.
- Days → Earnings: AAL and EWBC report in just 37 days (late January)—breakouts may be front-running earnings expectations.
Sector Observations:
- Healthcare leads with 5 signals (IMVT, ROIV, FOLD, ESTA, AKRO)—strong biotech momentum continues
- Industrials shows 3 signals (HUBG, AAL, RBC)—transportation and industrial recovery themes
- Financial Services has 3 signals (ENVA, EWBC, WTM)—benefiting from stable rates and banking strength
- Consumer Cyclical shows 2 signals (PATK, RRR)—RV manufacturing (PATK) and regional gaming (RRR)
- Basic Materials has 2 signals (RGLD, HCC)—gold royalties and met coal
Market Context:
Monday, December 16, 2025 was a mixed session. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished nearly flat at 6800.25 (+0.002%), while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) climbed +0.56% to 23,111. Small caps stumbled—the Russell 2000 (^RUT) dropped -0.28%. The VIX fell -4.8% to 16.45, suggesting low volatility and complacent market conditions. Bitcoin rallied +1.6% to $87,832, while Ethereum slipped -0.3%.
This was a tech-led session with rotation into momentum names. The low VIX and positive Nasdaq suggest favorable conditions for momentum continuation strategies.
Recent Headlines
- AAL — American Airlines: Multiple analysts offered rosy 2026 predictions; stock rallied +2.47% Friday. CEO unveiling new Airbus A321XLR with premium seat focus, targeting transcontinental/transatlantic routes. Exploring Amazon LEO satellite WiFi partnership.
- RGLD — Royal Gold: Hit fresh 52-week high as gold prices remain elevated. Presented at Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow. Zacks highlighted strong Q3 results and recent acquisitions.
- ROIV — Roivant Sciences: CEO sold $4.2M in stock Dec 9th; major insider Vivek Ramaswamy sold $100M+ since September. Investor Day Dec 11 highlighted pipeline progress and accelerated timelines for late-stage programs.
- AKRO — Akero Therapeutics: Novo Nordisk completed $4.7B acquisition Dec 9th at $54/share plus CVR. All insiders liquidated positions (return transactions).
- HUBG — Hub Group: President/CEO sold $1.4M shares Dec 11. Stock near 52-week high despite insider activity.
- ENVA — Enova International: CEO sold shares in Sept/Oct; no recent news catalysts. Strong momentum despite insider sales.
- FOLD — Amicus Therapeutics: Multiple insiders selling Nov-Dec; stock at 52-week high.
- TKO — TKO Group Holdings: UFC/WWE parent company; Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson granted shares Nov 30; director Nick Khan selling regularly.
- EWBC — East West Bancorp: CEO and COO both selling shares in Dec; approaching earnings Jan 22.
Vlad's Take (EverHint)
Market backdrop: S&P flat, Nasdaq +0.56%, Russell 2000 -0.28%. VIX at 16.45 (low volatility, complacent market). Bitcoin +1.6%, gold flat. This is a tech-led momentum environment with narrow leadership—exactly the type of market where mid-cap breakouts can work, but also where you need to be selective.
What I see: 15 of 17 signals are trading at or near 52-week highs—textbook breakout behavior. Volume is confirming institutional interest (average vol thrust 1.72x). But here's the concern: insider selling is widespread. ROIV's -$172.8M is egregious—insiders are using this momentum to exit. ENVA, HUBG, FOLD, EWBC, HCC all show net selling. Only RGLD, IMVT, PATK, AAL show clean insider data.
The playbook for mid-caps:
- Quality over quantity — Focus on top 5 scores (ENVA, HUBG, RGLD, IMVT, PATK). These have the cleanest setups.
- Watch the VIX — At 16.45, volatility is subdued. If VIX spikes above 20, tighten stops aggressively.
- Earnings proximity matters — AAL and EWBC report in 37 days. These could see pre-earnings positioning OR volatility into the print.
- Insider selling is a yellow flag, not a stop sign — Insiders sell for many reasons. But when ROIV insiders dump $173M during a breakout, that's not random. Proceed with caution.
- Tiered entries work best — Don't chase. Wait for pullbacks to 10-day MA or use limit orders 1-2% below current price.
Bottom line: This is a momentum-friendly environment, but insider activity suggests smart money is taking profits, not adding. Trade with defined stops, avoid overconcentration, and don't confuse a breakout with a buy-and-hold. Mid-caps can move fast—in both directions.
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