EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Tech Sector Breakout — December 11, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The Tech Sector Breakout scanner identifies technology stocks showing strong momentum with volume confirmation—stocks breaking out to new highs or consolidating near resistance levels while institutional money flows in. This strategy focuses exclusively on the technology sector, capturing both large-cap established players and mid-cap growth names during sector rotation.

Signal criteria:

• Sector focus: Technology only—software, semiconductors, networking, hardware, IT services
• Momentum: Rate of change acceleration over 10, 21, and 63 days
• Volume confirmation: Trading volume 1.5x+ above 20-day average
• Price strength: At or near 52-week highs (breakout or consolidation)
• Relative strength: Outperforming SPY over 21 days
• Holding period: 1-4 weeks (swing trading timeframe)
• Risk level: Medium-High

What makes this signal:

• Stock showing strong momentum near or at all-time highs within tech sector
• Increased volume confirms institutional interest and capital rotation into technology
• Breaking out or consolidating near resistance with technical structure intact
• Sector-specific momentum play—rides technology trends and rotations

Ideal for: Traders focusing on technology sector trends, momentum swing traders comfortable with sector concentration risk, and investors seeking exposure to tech breakouts with technical confirmation.

This is an experimental scanner focused on capturing technology sector momentum. Signals are for educational use and back-testing—not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Breakout signals are ranked by composite score (0-100 scale), which weights:

• Momentum strength (rate of change over 10, 21, and 63 days)
• Relative strength vs. SPY
• Volume thrust
• Proximity to 52-week high
• Volatility (moderate volatility preferred)
• Moving average alignment

Higher scores indicate stronger technical setups with better risk/reward profiles. A score of 100 represents the ideal combination of all factors; scores of 50 suggest average setups; scores near 0 indicate weaker technical structures requiring extra caution.

We overlay three critical data points:

1. Insider flows (last 90 days): Net insider buying during breakouts adds conviction—executives putting capital at risk alongside technical signals
2. Earnings proximity: Companies reporting within 60-90 days face event risk that can accelerate or invalidate breakout moves
3. Analyst coverage: Number of analysts covering the stock indicates institutional attention and information flow

Market context: Broader indices finished positive (S&P 500 +0.58%, Dow +1.31%, Nasdaq +0.36%), VIX dropped 11.8% to 14.85, and small-caps rallied +1.16%. Nasdaq's modest gain relative to Dow suggests rotation away from mega-cap tech into industrials and financials, though technology stocks with strong individual catalysts can still perform.

💻 Breakout Signals

3 Tech Sector Breakouts — December 11, 2025

Field Notes

Score (0-100 scale): SATS leads with a perfect 100, combining explosive momentum (32% 10-day gain, 20% 21-day gain, 35% 63-day gain), exceptional relative strength vs. SPY (+40%), strong volume thrust (1.90x), and all moving averages in bullish alignment. CIEN scores 50 with more moderate momentum (9% 10-day, 2% 21-day, but 83% 63-day) and solid relative strength (+15%). ST scores 0 with weaker momentum (9% 10-day, 8% 21-day, 12% 63-day) and lower relative strength (+14%)—this is a marginal breakout requiring tighter risk management.

% of 52-Week High: SATS and CIEN are both at exactly 100% of their 52-week highs—fresh breakouts with no overhead resistance. These are psychologically powerful levels where FOMO can drive momentum, but they also lack support if the moves fail. ST at 99.7% is essentially at its high with just 0.3% of cushion.

Volume Thrust: All three signals show strong institutional participation. CIEN leads with 2.03x average volume (strongest buying pressure), followed by SATS at 1.90x and ST at 1.69x. This level of volume expansion typically signals the start of multi-day to multi-week trends rather than one-day spikes. Watch for volume to remain elevated—if it drops below 1.0x on down days, that's a warning sign.

Volatility (63-day annualized): SATS 52.9%, CIEN 48.3%, ST 38.9%—all within moderate ranges for swing trading. These aren't the extreme volatility names (60%+), making them more suitable for standard position sizing. Expect 2-4% daily moves rather than 5-10% swings.

Insider Net: All three signals show insider selling—collectively -$15.4M over the past 90 days. This is the most concerning aspect of today's signals:

• SATS: -$7.4M in sales. President/CTO John Swieringa sold $1.5M at $67.34 on November 21 (stock now at $104.37, so insiders missed the surge). CEO Hamid Akhavan sold $4.8M at $76.50 in September, and COO Paul Gaske sold $385K at $75.91.
• CIEN: -$262.9K in sales. SVP Joseph Cumello sold $263K at $141.14 in September (stock now at $242.25—insiders left massive gains on table).
• ST: -$7.8M in sales. Director Ali John Mirshekari systematically sold $7.8M between November 19-21 at $28.73-$29.53 (stock now at $36.00—timing looks unfortunate for the seller, good for buyers).

The common thread: insiders sold weeks or months ago at significantly lower prices. This actually makes the breakouts more credible—if insiders were selling today at new highs, that would be bearish. Selling 15-30% below current prices suggests routine portfolio management, not bearish conviction.

Earnings Proximity:

• CIEN: Reports TODAY (0 days)—after market close. This is critical. The breakout to $242.25 is likely anticipatory buying ahead of earnings. Analysts expect $0.76 EPS on $1.29B revenue. This is extremely high-risk—earnings reactions can be violent. Exit before the close or hold through with reduced position size.
• ST: Reports in 61 days (February 10, 2026). Moderate event risk. Analysts expect $0.86 EPS.
• SATS: Reports in 76 days (February 26, 2026). Lower immediate event risk. Analysts expect -$0.81 EPS (company is unprofitable), so focus on revenue growth and subscriber metrics.

Analyst Coverage: CIEN has strong coverage with 9 analysts following the stock for fiscal 2026 estimates. ST has 8 analysts. SATS has 4 analysts. More coverage generally means better information flow and tighter spreads, though it can also mean higher expectations and more volatile reactions to misses.

Sector Concentration: All three signals are technology, but they represent different sub-sectors:

• SATS (EchoStar): Satellite communications and pay-TV services—exposed to broadband internet trends
• CIEN (Ciena): Networking equipment and software—exposed to 5G, cloud, and data center buildouts
• ST (Sensata): Industrial sensors and controls—exposed to automotive, HVAC, and industrial automation

This provides some diversification within tech, though all three are still correlated to broader technology sector sentiment.

Recent Headlines

No significant news articles were captured for these three tickers in the past 7 days, suggesting the breakouts are driven by technical momentum and sector rotation rather than company-specific catalysts. This is common for mid-cap industrial tech names outside of earnings season.

CIEN reports earnings TODAY after market close—this is the most critical near-term catalyst. Pre-earnings breakouts can be bullish (anticipatory buying by informed traders) or dangerous (options positioning ahead of a swing trade that reverses). Monitor closely.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

December 11 delivered a solid risk-on session: S&P 500 +0.58%, Dow +1.31%, Nasdaq +0.36%, Russell 2000 +1.16%. VIX collapsed 11.8% to 14.85—complacency is back in vogue. What's interesting: Dow and small-caps massively outperformed Nasdaq, suggesting rotation away from mega-cap tech into cyclicals, industrials, and financials. Yet individual tech names with strong momentum (like our three signals) still performed. Bitcoin +1.12% to $93,067 and gold +1.19% to $4,309 add to the risk-on narrative. Treasury yields rose modestly (10Y at 4.14%), but not enough to kill growth stock appetite.

What stands out:

1. SATS (EchoStar) +32% surge is the story—but can it sustain?: A 32% 10-day move with 1.90x volume at a perfect 100 technical score screams momentum. But here's the reality: satellite communication stocks are notoriously volatile, and SATS is unprofitable (analysts expect -$0.81 EPS next quarter). The move from $82.99 (10-day MA) to $104.37 is euphoric. Insiders sold $7.4M between $67-$76, missing this entire surge. That's bullish (no insider distribution at the top), but it also means we have zero insider conviction at current levels. This is a pure momentum play—ride it with a tight stop below $95 (10-day MA), take profits aggressively at $115-$120, and don't fall in love with it.

2. CIEN reports earnings TODAY—this is a coin flip, not a signal: The stock broke out to $242.25 at exactly 100% of its 52-week high with 2.03x volume on the day before earnings. This is textbook pre-earnings positioning. Two scenarios: (a) Informed traders know something good is coming, or (b) Options traders are setting up for a post-earnings collapse. I don't like gambling on earnings reactions in momentum strategies. If you're in CIEN, exit before the close. If you're not in, wait for post-earnings clarity—the stock will still be a signal if it holds above $220 after the report.

3. ST (Sensata) is the weakest signal with a score of 0—proceed with caution: An 8% 10-day gain with 1.69x volume at 99.7% of the 52-week high isn't terrible, but a composite score of 0 means the technical structure is weak. The 38.9% volatility is low (good for risk management), but the momentum profile is tepid. Director Mirshekari sold $7.8M at $28.73-$29.53 in November—that's 20-25% below current prices. He clearly mistimed his exit, which is actually bullish for the stock (no distribution at highs). But the weak score suggests this breakout could fail quickly. Use this as a small position with a stop at $34 (below the 50-day MA at $31.51 is too wide—tighten to just below the recent consolidation).

4. All three signals show insider selling—but timing matters more than direction: Total insider sales of -$15.4M sound bearish until you realize the sales happened 1-3 months ago at 15-40% below current prices. SATS insiders sold at $67-$76 (now $104). CIEN insiders sold at $141 (now $242). ST insiders sold at $28-$29 (now $36). This isn't bearish distribution—it's routine liquidation that predated the breakouts. The absence of insider selling at new highs is actually neutral-to-bullish. But don't mistake this for insider buying—there's zero open-market purchases across any of these signals. Trade the technicals, not insider sentiment.

5. Technology rotation is happening—but it's selective, not broad: Nasdaq's +0.36% lagged the Dow (+1.31%) and Russell 2000 (+1.16%), signaling rotation away from mega-cap tech into cyclicals. But individual tech names with strong catalysts (SATS +32%, CIEN breakout ahead of earnings, ST breakout on industrial sensor demand) can still work. This is a stock-picker's market within tech, not a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats environment. Focus on names with volume confirmation and clear catalysts.

Trading tips for tech sector breakouts:

• Position sizing based on score: SATS with a 100 score can take 3-5% of capital. CIEN with a 50 score (and earnings TODAY) should be 1-2% or zero. ST with a 0 score should be 1% or skipped entirely. Don't treat all signals equally—weight by technical quality.

• CIEN earnings trade: If you hold CIEN through earnings (not recommended), size down to 0.5-1% of capital and set a mental stop at -8% post-earnings. If earnings are good, the stock could surge to $265-$280 (previous highs). If earnings disappoint, expect -10 to -15% overnight. The risk/reward only works if you have conviction and small size.

• Entry timing on SATS: Don't chase $104.37 after a 32% run. Wait for a pullback to $95-$98 (the 10-day MA at $82.99 is rising rapidly, targeting $95 by end of week). Enter there with a stop at $92. Target $115-$120 for +20% upside. If the stock consolidates above $100 for 3-5 days, that's an alternate entry point.

• ST requires patience: With a score of 0, this is a low-conviction setup. Wait for confirmation—either a breakout above $37 with volume, or a test-and-hold of the 50-day MA at $31.51. Don't rush into weak setups just because they're tech sector plays.

• Stops are non-negotiable: SATS stop at $95 (10-day MA), CIEN stop at $220 (post-earnings only, don't hold through), ST stop at $34 (recent consolidation support). Technology stocks can gap down -10% on sector weakness or company-specific news. Hard stops protect capital.

• Take profits in thirds: When a position moves +10%, sell 1/3. At +20%, sell another 1/3. Let the final 1/3 run with a trailing stop. SATS is already +32% from its 10-day MA—if you're entering now, your first profit target should hit fast. Don't get greedy.

• Watch Nasdaq relative performance: If Nasdaq starts underperforming the S&P 500 by -0.5% or more for 2-3 consecutive days, that's a sector rotation warning. Exit tech breakouts and rotate into whatever's working (likely industrials, financials, or energy).

• Earnings risk: SATS reports in 76 days, ST in 61 days. Both are distant enough to trade momentum without worrying about event risk. CIEN reports TODAY—this is not a swing trade, it's a lottery ticket. Treat it accordingly.

Risk warning: Technology sector concentration means all three signals are correlated. If the Nasdaq reverses -2% in a session, expect SATS, CIEN, and ST to drop -3% to -5% together. Diversify across sectors if you're entering multiple momentum positions. And remember: insider selling across all three signals isn't a dealbreaker, but it removes a layer of fundamental conviction. You're trading pure momentum and technical structure—be ready to exit fast if the momentum breaks.

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