EverHint Signal — SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover — December 16, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover is one of the most reliable trend-following signals in technical analysis. It tracks two simple moving averages:

• SMA(20): 20-day average price (short-term momentum)
• SMA(50): 50-day average price (medium-term trend)

When these two lines cross, it signals a shift in market sentiment:

Buy Signal — "Golden Cross": SMA(20) crosses above SMA(50). This suggests short-term momentum is accelerating above the medium-term trend—a bullish confirmation. Historically, Golden Crosses have marked the start of sustained uptrends lasting 4–12 weeks.

Sell Signal — "Death Cross": SMA(20) crosses below SMA(50). This indicates weakening momentum and potential trend reversal. It's often used as an exit signal or a warning to tighten stops.

Why This Strategy Matters:

• Uses simple moving averages (SMAs) for maximum stability—less prone to whipsaws than faster EMA-based strategies
• Fewer signals but higher quality—each crossover carries significant weight
• Well-suited for medium-term swing trades (4–12 week holding periods)
• Lower false-positive rate compared to faster indicators

This is an experimental scanner from EverHint. Signals are for educational purposes and should be combined with your own research.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's ranking follows a straightforward methodology:

1. Primary Ranking: Signals are ranked by RSI(14)—the 14-day Relative Strength Index. For buy signals, lower RSI values indicate more oversold conditions, suggesting better entry points with room to run. For sell signals, higher RSI values indicate overbought conditions.

2. Overlay Data: We've enriched each signal with additional context:

   • Insider Net (USD): Net insider buying or selling over the last 90 days (Purchases minus Sales only—excludes awards, exercises, and tax transactions)
   • Days → Earnings: Number of days until the next earnings report (helps assess event risk)
   • Analyst Coverage: When available, we note the number of analysts following the stock

3. Quality Filters: All signals passed minimum liquidity thresholds ($20M+ average daily dollar volume) and earnings buffer requirements to avoid pre-earnings volatility.

Important: These signals are generated from publicly available data and are intended for educational use and back-testing. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

📈 Buy-Side Signals (26 Total)

Golden Cross signals detected for 26 stocks across multiple sectors. Ranked by RSI (lowest = most oversold).

Field Notes:

• RSI(14): Measures momentum on a 0-100 scale. Values below 50 suggest oversold conditions; above 70 indicates overbought. Lower RSI on buy signals suggests better entry points.
• Insider Net: Net insider buying (positive) or selling (negative) over 90 days. Only includes open-market purchases (P) minus sales (S).
• Days → Earnings: Time until next earnings report. Less than 7 days = high volatility risk; 7-30 days = moderate risk; 30+ days = lower event risk.
• Market Cap: Company size. Larger caps ($50B+) tend to be more stable; smaller caps offer higher growth potential with increased volatility.

Recent Headlines — Buy Signals

ACLS - Axcelis Technologies:

• Axcelis to Showcase Advanced Ion Implant Solutions at SEMICON Japan 2025 (Dec 10) — Company participating in major semiconductor industry event in Tokyo
• Axcelis Technologies: Ready For A Gradual Rerating (Rating Upgrade) (Dec 10, Seeking Alpha) — Analyst upgrades to BUY after Q3 revenue beat and business stabilization signals

AIT - Applied Industrial Technologies:

• Here's Why Applied Industrial Technologies is a Strong Momentum Stock (Dec 11, Zacks) — Zacks highlights strong momentum metrics

AMX - América Móvil:

• What Makes Amer Movil a New Buy Stock (Dec 12, Zacks) — Upgraded to Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on improving earnings outlook

BILL - Bill.com Holdings:

• Caxton Associates Takes $2.79 Million Position in BILL Holdings (Dec 15) — Institutional buying activity in Q2
• BILL Holdings Shares Sold by Frontier Capital Management (Dec 12) — Mixed institutional activity; Frontier reduced position by 42%

BMO - Bank of Montreal:

• Asante Gold Increases Previously Announced Bought Deal Private Placement to C$156 Million (Dec 16) — BMO Capital Markets acting as lead underwriter for major placement

BYD - Boyd Gaming:

• Boyd Group Services Amends Revolving Credit Facilities (Dec 9) — Increased credit facilities to $675M to support Joe Hudson's acquisition

NOK - Nokia:

• 2 Cheap Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now (Dec 11, Motley Fool) — Partnership with Nvidia highlighted as potential catalyst
• Could Nokia Reach $10 in 2026? (Dec 11, Motley Fool) — Nvidia's $1B investment sent stock to multiyear highs in October

PII - Polaris:

• Polaris Slingshot Announces 2026 Model Year Lineup (Dec 9) — Reveals Grand Touring Limited-Edition model with new colorways
• 3 Domestic Auto Stocks to Consider Amid Upbeat Demand Outlook (Dec 11, Zacks) — Named among top domestic auto plays

RRR - Red Rock Resorts:

• Bamco Inc. Has $638.36 Million Stock Position in Red Rock Resorts (Dec 13) — Major institutional holder increased stake by 5.7%

WRBY - Warby Parker:

• Biggest Market Movers Today: WRBY Gains Ground (Dec 9, Motley Fool) — Stock gained as hidden AI play

ZWS - Zurn Elkay Water Solutions:

• Zurn Elkay Named No. 45 of 600 on Newsweek's 2026 List of America's Most Responsible Companies (Dec 10) — Ranked #6 in Capital Goods sector, #1 in Wisconsin

📉 Sell-Side Signals (8 Total)

Death Cross signals detected for 8 stocks. Ranked by RSI (highest = most overbought).

Field Notes:

Death Cross signals indicate weakening momentum. Higher RSI values on sell signals suggest stocks may be rolling over from overbought conditions. Consider these as exit alerts or opportunities to tighten stops rather than short candidates without additional confirmation.

Recent Headlines — Sell Signals

MPC - Marathon Petroleum:

• Marathon Petroleum Stock Sinks As Market Gains (Dec 11, Zacks) — Closed at $187.11, down 2.19% while broader market advanced
• Is Trending Stock Marathon Petroleum a Buy Now? (Dec 9, Zacks) — Mixed analyst sentiment
• Marathon Petroleum Shares Sold by Federated Hermes (Dec 10) — Institutional selling; Federated reduced position by 29%

NOK - Nokia:

• Changes in Nokia Corporation's Own Shares (Dec 9 & Dec 11) — Share transfer activity for equity-based incentive plans
• Nokia and Airtel Team Up to Unlock 5G Network APIs for Developers (Dec 9, Zacks) — Partnership to enable Network as Code solutions
• Nokia Given Consensus Rating of "Moderate Buy" (Dec 10) — 8 buy ratings, 3 holds, 1 sell among 12 analysts

Field Notes — Understanding the Metrics

SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover Strategy:

• Stability First: This strategy uses simple moving averages (not exponential), making it less reactive to short-term noise
• Quality Over Quantity: You'll see fewer signals than with faster strategies (like EMA10×EMA30), but each carries more weight
• Medium-Term Focus: Ideal for swing trades lasting 4–12 weeks; not for day traders or long-term buy-and-hold

Sector Rotation Observations:

• Industrials Lead Buy Signals: 7 of 26 buy signals are in Industrials (GGG, ITW, EMR, AIT, GWW, ZWS, BYD)—suggests rotation into cyclical plays
• Consumer Cyclical Strength: 6 buy signals (BYD, DECK, LEVI, LOW, RRR, TPR)—positive consumer sentiment signal
• Tech Mixed: 5 tech buy signals but 3 tech sell signals—sector showing divergence
• Energy Weakness: 2 of 8 sell signals are energy stocks (MPC, MGY)—sector under pressure

RSI Interpretation:

• Below 30: Deeply oversold—potential reversal candidates but confirm with volume
• 30-50: Oversold to neutral—healthy entry zone for buy signals
• 50-70: Neutral to overbought—momentum still intact but less room to run
• Above 70: Overbought—exercise caution; may indicate late-stage rally

Insider Activity Highlights:

• LEVI (Levi Strauss): +$4.8M net insider buying—strong insider confidence
• LYFT: +$99,617 net buying from CEO John Risher—leadership taking position
• TPR (Tapestry): -$4.4M net insider selling—executives taking profits
• WRBY (Warby Parker): -$1.9M net insider selling—co-CEOs selling shares

Earnings Risk Assessment:

• Near-term Risk (< 7 days): None in this batch—all signals have earnings buffer
• Moderate Risk (7-30 days): None in near-term window
• Lower Risk (30+ days): All 34 signals have 37+ days to earnings—favorable for swing trades

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop:
Today's market showed mixed signals with tech leading and industrials lagging. The S&P 500 closed essentially flat (+0.13 points, +0.002%), while the Nasdaq climbed 0.56% (+129.64) and the Dow dropped 0.55% (-265.9). Small-caps also retreated, with the Russell 2000 down 0.28%—suggesting defensive positioning rather than broad-based risk appetite.

The VIX closed at 16.45 (down 4.8%), indicating low volatility and complacent market conditions—favorable for swing trades with room to breathe. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.153% (-0.41%), providing modest support for growth names. Crypto showed mixed action: Bitcoin rallied 1.64% while Ethereum slipped 0.34%.

Given this backdrop:

The Golden Cross scanner is delivering quality signals in a calm market environment. With VIX below 17, you've got breathing room for medium-term positions—perfect for this 4-12 week strategy. The sector rotation into Industrials (7 buy signals) and Consumer Cyclical (6 buy signals) suggests a shift toward domestic growth and consumer strength.

What Stands Out:

1. Low RSI Entries: Half of the buy signals have RSI below 65—these are not chasing overbought rallies; they're catching early momentum
2. Quality Names: GWW (W.W. Grainger), TXN (Texas Instruments), LOW (Lowe's), MCO (Moody's)—these are not speculative plays; they're established leaders with institutional backing
3. Earnings Buffer: Every signal has 37+ days until earnings—you won't get whipsawed by surprise reports in the next few weeks

Trading Tips:

• Tiered Entries: Don't blow your full position on day one. Consider 1/3 at the cross, 1/3 on a pullback to SMA20, 1/3 on volume confirmation
• Stop Management: Place initial stops below the SMA50 (the slower average). If SMA20 crosses back below SMA50, the signal is invalidated
• Profit Targets: For medium-term trades, consider taking partial profits at 10-15% gains and trailing stops on the remainder
• Watch the VIX: If volatility spikes above 25, tighten stops—this strategy works best in calmer conditions

Red Flags on Sell Signals:
The Death Cross list includes some high-quality names (HWM, LOGI, NOK) that are simply losing momentum. Don't interpret these as "must short" signals—they're exit alerts for existing longs or warnings to stay on the sidelines. AMX with RSI at 17.81 is deeply oversold but still showing a sell signal—wait for stabilization before considering a reversal trade.

Final Thought:
This is an experimental scanner. The SMA20×SMA50 crossover has a strong historical track record for medium-term trends, but no strategy wins 100% of the time. Use these signals as a starting point for your own research, not as standalone buy/sell commands. Combine with your own fundamental analysis, position sizing, and risk management.

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This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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