EverHint Signal — SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover — December 17, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover strategy detects fresh crossovers between the 20-day simple moving average (SMA20) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) that occur on today's close.

Buy Signal (SMA20_x_SMA50_Buy) - "Golden Cross": SMA(20) crosses above SMA(50) on today's close. Short-term momentum (20 days) exceeds medium-term trend (50 days), providing bullish trend confirmation with high reliability. Ideal for medium-term trend following with 4-12 week holding periods.

Sell Signal (SMA20_x_SMA50_Sell) - "Death Cross": SMA(20) crosses below SMA(50) on today's close. Short-term momentum weakens below medium-term trend, signaling bearish trend confirmation. Can signal exit points or trend reversal alerts.

Key Characteristics:

• Uses two SMAs (both simple moving averages) for maximum stability
• Most stable strategy - fewer signals but highest quality (fewer whipsaws)
• Better suited for medium-term trends with confirmed momentum
• Lower risk entries compared to faster EMA-based strategies

This is an experimental scanner designed for educational use and back-testing.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by RSI(14) — the 14-day Relative Strength Index. For buy signals, lower RSI values are ranked higher because they indicate more oversold conditions, offering better risk/reward entry points. For sell signals, lower RSI also ranks higher as it indicates weaker momentum and more confirmation of downside.

• RSI < 30: Oversold — Strong opportunity zone
• RSI 30-50: Neutral to slightly oversold — Good entry/exit zone
• RSI 50-70: Neutral to overbought — Momentum present but less room
• RSI > 70: Overbought — Caution warranted

We also overlay:

• Insider Net (USD): Net insider buying or selling over the last 90 days (Purchases - Sales only)
• Days to Earnings: Proximity to the next earnings report affects volatility risk
• Market Cap: Company size for position sizing and liquidity considerations

These signals are for educational use and back-testing. They highlight technical momentum setups, not fundamental analysis. Always check the broader market context before trading.

📈 Buy-Side Signals (Top 15 of 31)

Field Notes:

• Insider Net: Net insider buying (+) or selling (-) over the last 90 days. Only includes actual Purchases (P) and Sales (S), excluding Awards (A), Exercises (M), and Tax payments (F).
• Days → Earnings: Days until next earnings report. DHI reports in 34 days. <7 days = high volatility risk, 7-30 days = moderate risk, >30 days = lower event risk.
• RSI(14): Relative Strength Index on 14-day basis. Lower values indicate more oversold conditions on buy signals.

Recent Headlines (Buy Signals):

• TECH - Bio-Techne: All directors received award grants on 10/30. Stock at RSI 20.5 (deeply oversold)—potential bounce candidate.
• ZG - Zillow: Multiple executive sales in November. CEO Jeremy Wacksman sold 10,855 shares at $69.99 on 11/14. CFO Jeremy Hofmann sold 7,865 shares at $69.53. Total insider sales: -$431K. Despite technical Golden Cross, insider selling is concerning.
• DHI - D.R. Horton: All directors received award grants on 10/29. Homebuilder showing Golden Cross after sector weakness.
• QCOM - Qualcomm: Multiple tax withholdings and awards in November-December. CEO Cristiano Amon, CFO Akash Palkhiwala had major tax events on 12/15. Featured as "underappreciated EPS upside story in semis" by analysts. AI expansion into video intelligence market. Stock up 2% despite being called "AI loser" by Wedbush.
• BR - Broadridge: Directors received award grants on 12/10. Featured as "earnings growth & price strength" stock to watch. New general ledger capabilities for alternative investment managers announced.
• UFPI - UFP Industries: Executive Chairman Matthew Missad sold 11,000 shares at $92.26 on 12/11 for -$1.01M.
• CE - Celanese: Announced early results of tender offers for senior notes. Executing transactions to extend debt maturity profile.

📉 Sell-Side Signals (All 10)

Field Notes:

• Insider Net: Net insider buying (+) or selling (-) over the last 90 days. Only includes actual Purchases (P) and Sales (S).
• Days → Earnings: Days until next earnings report. OSIS reports in 36 days (soonest among sell signals).
• RSI(14): Lower values indicate weaker momentum. PBF at 12.0 and DK at 19.1 are extremely oversold—potential dead cat bounce candidates.

Recent Headlines (Sell Signals):

• PBF - PBF Energy: Multiple executive stock awards on 10/28-29. Several executives had tax withholdings in October-November. SVP Thomas O'Connor sold 80,000 shares for -$2.1M in November. SVP Paul Davis sold 50,000 shares at $38.00 on 11/10. Death Cross at RSI 12.0 signals extreme weakness.
• DK - Delek US: Director Ezra Uzi Yemin sold massive 152,916 shares across multiple transactions in October-November totaling -$4.7M in insider sales. Multiple executives had tax withholdings in November-December. Death Cross confirms bearish trend.
• AEP - American Electric Power: EVP Kelly Ferneau sold 1,006 shares at $112.00 on 10/2 and had tax withholding on 10/1. Director Benjamin Fowke sold 5,000 shares at $117.52 on 10/10 for -$588K.
• HALO - Halozyme Therapeutics: CEO Helen Torley had multiple transactions including exercises and sales totaling -$214K in October-November. Director Bernadette Connaughton sold shares.
• ADC - Agree Realty: Featured as "6% yield sleep well at night stock" by analysts. Executive Chairman Richard Agree and President Joey Agree gifted shares on 11/18. Chief Growth Officer Craig Erlich PURCHASED 360 shares at $70.85 on 10/3 (bullish signal). Announced monthly common dividend increase to $0.262 per share (3.6% increase). Despite Death Cross, insider buying and dividend raise are positive.
• OSIS - OSI Systems: CEO Deepak Chopra sold 20,000 shares at $245.80 on 10/1 for -$4.9M. President Keith Morben sold 416 shares, Director James Hawkins sold 1,500 shares in November.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop: Today the S&P 500 dropped -1.2% to close at 6,721, Nasdaq fell harder at -1.9% to 22,696, and the Dow declined -0.6% to 47,886. Tech-led selloff dominated as investors rotated out of mega-cap names. The VIX spiked to 17.62 (up 7.1%), indicating elevated volatility—not panic territory, but caution is warranted. Small-caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 down -1.1%, suggesting defensive positioning. Bitcoin dropped -2.4% to $85,706, and Ethereum fell -5.1% to $2,811, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. Treasury yields eased slightly (10Y at 4.149%, down 3 bps), offering modest support for growth names. Overall: Risk-off environment with tech weakness and rising volatility.

Given this backdrop, today's SMA20 × SMA50 crossovers carry significant weight as "Golden Cross" and "Death Cross" signals—the most stable and reliable crossover strategy in the toolkit. These are not momentum blips; they're confirmed trend shifts that deserve attention.

The 31 buy signals include some deeply oversold setups. TECH (RSI 20.5) is at capitulation levels, but Bio-Techne is in a secular growth sector (life sciences tools). MGY (RSI 39.4) and ZG (RSI 39.8) offer better risk/reward than the overbought names like TGT (RSI 93.6—avoid this). DHI's Golden Cross at RSI 46.9 is intriguing as homebuilders have been beaten down but may be stabilizing.

QCOM deserves special mention: despite Wedbush calling it an "AI loser," the stock rallied and just crossed golden. Analysts counter it's "underappreciated EPS upside story in semis" with strong automotive and AI expansion. The divided analyst opinion creates opportunity for contrarians.

On the sell side, PBF (RSI 12.0) and DK (RSI 19.1) are in free fall. Energy refiners are getting crushed—these Death Crosses confirm the downtrend. However, at these RSI levels, they're due for a bounce (dead cat or otherwise). Don't confuse a bounce with a reversal.

ADC is the anomaly: Death Cross but insider BUYING, dividend raise, and described as "sleep well at night stock." REITs showing mixed signals—watch this sector carefully.

Trading Tips:

• Respect the SMA Crosses: Golden Cross = bullish, Death Cross = bearish. These are NOT day-trade signals; they're 4-12 week position trades.
• Avoid Extremes: TGT (RSI 93.6), ESLT (RSI 83.8), ALK (RSI 82.3) are too extended despite Golden Cross. Wait for pullback.
• Focus on Quality Oversold: TECH, MGY, DHI, FTAI all have RSI <50 on Golden Cross—better entry points.
• Energy Bloodbath: PBF and DK Death Crosses with massive insider selling confirm weakness. Stay away unless you're bottom-fishing.
• Follow ADC Closely: Insider buying + dividend raise vs. Death Cross = conflicting signals. This could be a false Death Cross or a buying opportunity. Monitor closely.
• Position Size for VIX: At 17.62, use 60-70% of normal position size and set 6-8% stops.
• 4-12 Week Horizon: Don't check these daily. SMA50 crosses need time to develop. Set alerts and let the trade breathe.

Remember: Golden Cross and Death Cross signals work best in trending markets, not choppy ranges. The current risk-off environment favors quality over speculation. Focus on fundamentals + technicals alignment.

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No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
See https://www.everhint.com/disclaimer/ and https://www.everhint.com/faqs/

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