EverHint Signal — SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover — December 26, 2025

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover is the gold standard for trend confirmation strategies. This experimental scanner tracks when the 20-day simple moving average crosses the 50-day simple moving average—a time-tested technical signal that filters out noise and identifies sustained momentum shifts.

Buy Signal ("Golden Cross"): SMA(20) crosses above SMA(50) — short-term momentum (20 days) exceeds the medium-term trend (50 days). This is bullish trend confirmation with high reliability, ideal for traders looking for validated uptrends rather than speculative early entries.

Sell Signal ("Death Cross"): SMA(20) crosses below SMA(50) — short-term momentum weakens below the medium-term trend. This bearish crossover often marks the beginning of extended downtrends or signals exit points for existing positions.

Unlike faster EMA-based strategies, SMA20 × SMA50 uses two simple moving averages for maximum stability. This means fewer signals but higher quality—less whipsaw, more conviction. Best suited for medium-term trend following with 4-12 week holding periods. The tradeoff: you give up early entry in exchange for confirmed momentum.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's signals are ranked by RSI (Relative Strength Index) to assess momentum quality at the point of crossover. For buy signals, lower RSI values rank higher—stocks breaking out from oversold or neutral zones offer better risk/reward. For sell signals, we prioritize higher RSI readings—momentum rolling over from overbought levels.

We layer three critical overlays on each signal:

1. Insider Net Flow — Net buying or selling by company insiders over the last 90 days (open-market purchases minus sales; awards/exercises excluded)
2. Days to Earnings — Proximity to quarterly reports affects volatility and event risk
3. Market Context — Sector rotation patterns and overall market conditions

Critical Note: These are educational signals for backtesting and research. Not every golden cross leads to sustained rallies, and not every death cross predicts a crash. SMA crossovers work best in trending markets and struggle in choppy, range-bound conditions.

📈 Buy-Side Signals (Golden Cross)

23 stocks generated SMA20 × SMA50 buy signals on December 26, 2025, ranked by RSI (lowest to highest):

Field Notes: Buy Signals (Golden Cross)

Insider Activity Standouts:

• GPN (+$1.09M): Director Robert H.B. Baldwin Jr. purchased $1.09M worth of shares over two transactions in early December ($846K on Dec 11, $241K on Dec 10), signaling strong confidence from board leadership.
• NCLH (+$1.08M): Significant insider buying including CEO Harry Sommer ($463K), director Zillah Byng-Thorne ($525K), and director Curtis Harris ($96K). Multiple executives buying simultaneously is a strong bullish signal.
• MTN (+$32.6K): CFO Angela Korch made an open-market purchase of $32.6K in October, offsetting some tax-related selling.
• MIRM (-$4.30M): Heavy insider selling with director Michael Grey selling $3.9M and director Saira Ramasastry selling $400K in late December. Red flag despite technical breakout.
• RKLB (-$2.63M): CEO Peter Beck sold $11.2M worth of shares in mid-December. Notable selling pressure from top leadership.
• PEGA (-$2.16M): CEO Alan Trefler sold $2.16M over multiple transactions. Consistent selling pattern from founder/CEO.

RSI Context:

• Low RSI Cluster (DSGX, NTAP, ADSK, ENTG): RSI 29-46, breaking out from oversold or neutral zones. These represent fresh momentum with significant runway before overbought conditions.
• Mid RSI Group (CCJ, MTN, ASTS, GPN): RSI 48-52, healthy momentum without overextension. Sweet spot for trend-following entries.
• High RSI Group (WY, SARO, NCLH, MOH, CAKE): RSI 71-81, already in overbought territory. Caution warranted—these may need consolidation before continuing higher.

Earnings Proximity:

• Immediate Risk (< 40 days): CMCSA (34d), WY (34d), HUBB (39d), MOH (40d), AFRM (41d), ENTG (41d), BTU (41d) — expect heightened volatility
• Moderate Risk (40-60 days): GPN, PEGA, LPX, CCJ, CAKE, BIDU, LPX all in 47-55 day range
• Safe Zone (> 60 days): DSGX (68d), ASTS (66d), MIRM (61d), CAVA (60d), RKLB (62d), NTAP (62d), NCLH (62d), ADSK (62d), SARO (73d), MTN (73d)

Sector Rotation Observations:

• Technology dominance (7 signals): DSGX, NTAP, ADSK, ENTG, ASTS, AFRM, PEGA — sector showing strong technical momentum
• Industrials strength (5 signals): GPN, LPX, HUBB, RKLB, SARO — cyclical acceleration
• Consumer Cyclical (4 signals): MTN, CAVA, CAKE, NCLH — consumer spending resilience
• Energy (2): CCJ, BTU — commodity rebound plays
• Healthcare (2): MIRM, MOH — defensive rotation

Recent Headlines: Buy Signals

BIDU — Baidu, Inc.

• "Uber, Lyft Tie Up With Baidu for U.K. Robotaxi Tests Next Year" (WSJ, Dec 22) — Baidu's Apollo Go will begin robotaxi trials in UK with Uber and Lyft in 2026
• "Can ERNIE 5.0 and Qianfan Strengthen Baidu's AI Cloud Advantage?" (Zacks, Dec 24) — Sharpens AI Cloud strategy with ERNIE 5.0 and agent-centric Qianfan platform
• "3 Self-Driving Tech Stocks to Ride into 2026 as AV Race Heats Up" (Zacks, Dec 23) — BIDU positioned to benefit from global AV race intensification

ASTS — AST SpaceMobile

• "AST SpaceMobile Announces Successful Orbital Launch of BlueBird 6" (Business Wire, Dec 24) — Largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit
• "Forget Archer Aviation: The Smartest Investors Are Piling Into This Game-Changing Satellite Stock" (Motley Fool, Dec 25) — AST provides cellular connectivity via satellites with major contracts secured
• "AST SpaceMobile Falls Despite Successful Satellite Launch" (Schaeffers, Dec 24) — Stock down 5.3% despite BlueBird 6 launch success, potential buying opportunity

CAVA — CAVA Group

• "CAVA Group, Inc. Given Consensus Rating of 'Moderate Buy' by Brokerages" (Defense World, Dec 26) — 24 analysts covering with majority buy/strong buy ratings
• "CAVA Group, Inc. is Attracting Investor Attention" (Zacks, Dec 24) — Significant user attention on platform

AFRM — Affirm Holdings

• "All I Want for Christmas Is Four Easy Payments: 'Buy Now, Pay Later' Spend Projected To Hit $20 Billion" (Benzinga, Dec 25) — BNPL services account for significant holiday checkout share
• "AFRM vs. AXP: Which Fintech Play is the Better Bet for 2026?" (Zacks, Dec 22) — Affirm's rapid growth and embedded BNPL model give edge over legacy players

CMCSA — Comcast Corporation

• "Comcast Extends Mike Cavanagh's Contract, Grants $35M In Stock Awards As Exec Set To Become Co-CEO" (Deadline, Dec 23) — Leadership transition with Cavanagh becoming co-CEO alongside Brian Roberts
• "Comcast Business Caps 2025 with Unprecedented Wave of Analyst Recognition" (Business Wire, Dec 22) — Top rankings in managed SD-WAN, secure networking, and NaaS

RKLB — Rocket Lab USA

• "RKLB, ASTS, TDG: Insiders are Selling These 3 Space Stocks" (MarketBeat, Dec 22) — Notable insider selling raises concerns despite strong technical signal

NCLH — Norwegian Cruise Line

• Multiple insiders buying in early November including CEO, CFO, and multiple directors — strong vote of confidence from management

📉 Sell-Side Signals (Death Cross)

14 stocks generated SMA20 × SMA50 sell signals on December 26, 2025, ranked by RSI (highest to lowest):

Field Notes: Sell Signals (Death Cross)

Insider Activity Standouts:

• COR (-$1.67M): CEO Robert P. Mauch sold $1.67M in October following stock option exercises. Leadership selling into weakness is bearish.
• ZG (-$1.25M): Multiple executives selling including CEO Jeremy Wacksman, CFO Jeremy Hofmann, and Chief People Officer Dan Spaulding. Broad-based selling across C-suite.
• HQY (-$1.13M): EVP Elimelech Rosner sold $1.05M in December. Significant selling from senior management.
• AGCO (-$26.1K): SVP Kelvin Bennett sold $26K in November. Minor selling.

RSI Context:

• Deeply Oversold (VAL, PBR-A, BKR, EPRT, BP): RSI 11-30, severe selling pressure. These could be candidates for mean-reversion bounces, but death crosses often precede extended downtrends. Tread carefully.
• Weakening Momentum (SXI, ZG, HQY, ELS, AGCO): RSI 39-49, gradual loss of momentum rather than panic selling. Extended downtrends likely.
• Strong Breakdown (LGND, VSEC, MCK, COR): RSI 56-62, rolling over from strength. These were in uptrends and are now breaking down—potentially dangerous technical deterioration.

Earnings Proximity:

• Immediate Risk (< 35 days): ELS (31d), SXI (34d), BKR (34d) — negative setup into earnings
• Moderate Risk (40-50 days): MCK (40d), COR (40d), AGCO (41d), ZG (46d), BP (46d), EPRT (47d)
• Safer Zone (> 50 days): VAL (54d), PBR-A (60d), VSEC (61d), LGND (62d), HQY (82d)

Sector Breakdown:

• Healthcare weakness (4 signals): LGND, MCK, COR, HQY — sector rotation out of healthcare
• Energy collapse (4 signals): BP, BKR, PBR-A, VAL — commodity price pressure
• Industrials (3): VSEC, AGCO, SXI — cyclical weakness
• Real Estate (2): ELS, EPRT — REIT pressure from rates
• Communication Services (1): ZG — housing market concerns

Recent Headlines: Sell Signals

BP — BP p.l.c.

• "BP to Sell 65% Stake in Castrol to Stonepeak for $6 Billion" (Reuters, Dec 24) — Major divestiture as part of $20B asset sale plan to reduce debt
• "BP Sells 65% of Castrol for $6 Billion in Strategic Reset" (GuruFocus, Dec 24) — Transaction values Castrol at $10.1B
• "BP share price forecast as it sells Castrol to Stonepeak Partners" (Invezz, Dec 24) — Stock down 10% from November highs

BKR — Baker Hughes Company

• "Baker Hughes to Supply LM9000 Turbines for Commonwealth LNG Project" (Zacks, Dec 23) — Supply agreement for liquefaction equipment, positive catalyst overshadowed by technical weakness
• "3 Oilfield Services Stocks Set to Gain From Solid Industry Prospects" (Zacks, Dec 22) — BKR cited as well-positioned despite current breakdown

COR — Cencora, Inc.

• "These 3 Medical Stocks Have Wall Street's Bullish Vote for 2026" (Zacks, Dec 24) — COR earns bullish analyst support despite technical deterioration
• "4 Stocks Trading Near 52-Week High With More Upside Potential" (Zacks, Dec 22) — COR cited for upside potential, but death cross suggests momentum shift

ZG — Zillow Group

• Multiple C-suite executives selling shares in November including CEO, CFO, and other senior leaders — broad insider selling ahead of breakdown

Field Notes

Understanding the Metrics:

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Momentum gauge on 0-100 scale

• Below 30 = Oversold (bounce candidates, but death crosses often extend)
• 30-50 = Weak/neutral momentum
• 50-70 = Healthy momentum
• Above 70 = Overbought (golden crosses may need consolidation)

Insider Net: Open-market purchases (P) minus sales (S) over 90 days

• Positive = Insider buying (bullish confirmation)
• Negative = Insider selling (proceed with caution)
• Blank = No significant insider activity
• Excludes awards (A), exercises (M), and tax payments (F)

Days to Earnings: Calendar days until next quarterly report

• < 14 days = High volatility, event risk
• 14-45 days = Moderate risk zone

• 45 days = Lower earnings-related volatility

Golden Cross vs. Death Cross Quality:

The SMA20 × SMA50 crossover is most reliable when:

• Volume confirms: Higher volume on the crossover day increases reliability
• RSI aligns: Golden crosses with RSI 40-60 are ideal; death crosses with RSI breaking below 50 are bearish
• Long-term trend supports: Check SMA200—stocks above it have trend support
• Market environment: Crossovers work best in trending markets, struggle in choppy ranges

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop (Dec 26, 2025): S&P 500 -0.09%, Nasdaq -0.22%, Dow flat. Muted holiday session with mixed close. VIX at 13.6 (down 3.68%) signals remarkably low volatility—complacency reigns. Small-caps lagged with Russell 2000 down 0.49%, suggesting defensive positioning beneath the surface. Treasury yields rose (10Y at 4.139%, up 1.7 bps), mild headwind for growth. Bitcoin +0.34% to $87.5K, Ethereum +0.88% to $2,928. Overall: Cautiously neutral, exceptionally low vol environment.

Extended Non-Trading Period Alert: Markets closed Saturday-Sunday (Dec 27-28). Any weekend news, geopolitical events, or earnings announcements could create gap risk Monday. VIX at 13.6 suggests the market is pricing zero fear—these conditions can reverse violently. Monitor headlines over the extended break.

The Signal Quality: 23 golden crosses vs. 14 death crosses — net bullish tilt, but context matters. Many golden crosses are hitting overbought RSI (SARO 76.6, WY 81.0, NCLH 75.0), suggesting they may need to digest gains. Conversely, several death crosses are deeply oversold (VAL 11.3, PBR-A 18.2, BKR 22.1)—mean reversion candidates if oil stabilizes.

What I'm Watching:

1. GPN — Global Payments (+$1.09M insider buying): Director Robert Baldwin's aggressive buying ($1.09M over two days) is the cleanest insider signal in this batch. RSI 52.4 is neutral, golden cross at $80.35 is technically sound. Payments processing is sticky revenue, and insider conviction this strong is rare. This is my top pick from the buy side.

2. NCLH — Norwegian Cruise Line (+$1.08M insider buying): CEO, CFO, and multiple directors all buying in early November. RSI 75 is extended, but when this many insiders buy simultaneously, it signals deep conviction. Wait for a 5-7% pullback to the $21 level before entry.

3. BIDU — Baidu (robotaxi expansion): The Uber/Lyft partnership for UK robotaxi trials is a significant catalyst. Golden cross with RSI 57.7 is healthy. China tech has been unloved, and BIDU's AI Cloud + autonomous vehicle strategy is underappreciated. Entry zone $120-125 on any pullback.

4. ASTS — AST SpaceMobile (BlueBird 6 launch): Successful satellite launch is a major milestone, yet stock sold off 5.3%. Classic "buy the dip after news sell-off" setup. RSI 49.5 shows room to run. But heavy CEO insider selling (-$11.2M) is a red flag. I'd wait for price to stabilize above $65 before considering entry.

5. BP — Death Cross with Major Divestiture: Selling 65% of Castrol for $6B is strategic, but stock is down 10% from highs with RSI 30.7 (oversold). Oil majors are unloved, but BP's debt reduction plan is rational. This could be a contrarian long-term play, but wait for technical stabilization—death crosses often continue for weeks.

6. Energy Sector Collapse (BKR, PBR-A, VAL): Four energy death crosses with RSI 11-30 suggests capitulation. If oil finds a floor, these are prime mean-reversion candidates. But don't try to catch falling knives—wait for RSI to cross back above 30 and price to reclaim SMA20 before considering longs.

Sector Insights:

• Technology golden crosses (7 signals) suggest capital flowing into tech. DSGX, NTAP, ADSK, ENTG all breaking out with RSI < 50—these have runway.
• Energy death crosses (4 signals) point to broad commodity weakness. Until oil stabilizes, avoid longs.
• Healthcare mixed (2 golden, 4 death crosses) — sector rotation unclear. Avoid.
• Consumer Cyclical strength (4 golden crosses) — NCLH, CAKE, CAVA, MTN all breaking out. Consumer spending remains resilient despite macro fears.

Trading Tips:

• Golden Cross entries: Don't chase day-one breakouts. SMA crossovers take days to develop. Wait for first pullback to SMA20 after the cross for better risk/reward.
• Death Cross exits: If you're holding any of the 14 death cross names, consider trimming. Death crosses have higher follow-through probability than failed breakouts.
• RSI matters: Golden crosses with RSI > 70 (WY, SARO, NCLH) need consolidation. Golden crosses with RSI 40-60 (GPN, CCJ, MTN, ASTS) have the best setups.
• Insider buying trumps technicals: When directors buy $1M+ (GPN, NCLH), pay attention. They have information you don't.
• VIX at 13.6 = complacency. This won't last. When vol spikes, SMA strategies underperform. Consider tighter stops and smaller position sizes.

Bottom Line: This is a solid signal day for quality trend-following entries, but exercise discipline. The best golden crosses are GPN (insider buying), BIDU (catalyst), and the low-RSI tech cluster (DSGX, NTAP, ADSK). Avoid the overbought names and the death cross energy stocks unless you're playing mean reversion with tight stops. The market's low-vol complacency won't last forever—position accordingly.

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