EverHint Signal — SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover — January 02, 2026

What This Signal Is (Quick)

The SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover is the most stable trend-following strategy in the EverHint arsenal. It tracks two simple moving averages—a 20-day SMA (short-term momentum) and a 50-day SMA (medium-term trend)—and signals when they cross.

Buy Signal (Golden Cross): The 20-day SMA crosses above the 50-day SMA on today's close. This indicates that short-term momentum (recent 20-day price action) is overtaking the medium-term trend (50-day average). It's a bullish confirmation signal, suggesting the stock has shifted from downtrend to uptrend or is accelerating an existing uptrend.

Sell Signal (Death Cross): The 20-day SMA crosses below the 50-day SMA on today's close. This signals that short-term momentum is weakening below the medium-term trend—a bearish confirmation that the stock may be entering a downtrend or decelerating.

Why this matters: SMA-based strategies are more stable than EMA-based ones because simple moving averages weight all data points equally, reducing whipsaw risk. The 20/50 combination is a sweet spot: responsive enough to catch trends early, but stable enough to filter out noise. These signals generate fewer false positives than faster strategies (like EMA10×EMA30), making them ideal for medium-term trend followers with 4-12 week holding periods.

Key difference from EMA strategies: EMAs (exponential moving averages) weight recent prices more heavily, making them faster but more volatile. SMAs treat all prices equally, making them slower but more reliable. This is a quality-over-quantity strategy—fewer signals, but higher conviction.

Important: This is an experimental scanner for educational and back-testing purposes. Signals are not financial advice.

How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

Today's 29 signals (18 buy-side, 11 sell-side) are ranked by RSI(14) values:

• Buy signals: Lower RSI = more oversold = higher rank (potential bounce candidates from oversold levels)
• Sell signals: Lower RSI = weaker momentum = higher rank (stocks already declining before the death cross)

We've overlaid context layers:

1. Insider Net Flows (90 days): Net buying (P-Purchase) minus selling (S-Sale). Awards, exercises, and tax transactions excluded.
2. Days to Earnings: Proximity to next earnings report (impacts volatility risk).
3. Recent news: Used to explain WHY stocks are crossing key moving average levels.

These signals are provided for educational use and back-testing. Always conduct your own due diligence.

📈 Buy-Side Signals (18 Total) — Golden Crosses

Field Notes:

• Last ($): Closing price on signal date (Jan 2, 2026)
• RSI(14): Relative Strength Index. Lower RSI (30-50) = oversold/undervalued entry points. Higher RSI (60-80) = overbought/late-stage momentum.
• Insider Net: Net insider buying (+) or selling (-) over last 90 days. Only P-Purchase and S-Sale counted. $0 = no significant insider activity.
• Days → Earnings: Days until next earnings report. <7 days = high volatility risk; 7-30 days = moderate risk; >30 days = lower event risk. N/A = no earnings date in next 90 days.

Recent Headlines — Buy-Side Signals

ABBV (AbbVie Inc.)

• Here's How AbbVie's Neuroscience Portfolio Is Aiding Top-line Growth (Zacks, Jan 2) — Neuroscience franchise now drives >17% of revenues, double-digit growth
• AbbVie: Solid Growth, Some Risks, And An Attractive Setup In 2026 (Seeking Alpha, Jan 1) — Strong 2025 EPS growth driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq
• 3 No-Brainer Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now (Motley Fool, Dec 30) — Skyrizi and Rinvoq generating lots of sales

ALAB (Astera Labs)

• Better Artificial Intelligence Stock: Navitas Semiconductor vs. Astera Labs (Motley Fool, Dec 29) — ALAB provides key components for AI infrastructure
• Forefront Wealth Partners LLC Takes Position in Astera Labs (Defense World, Dec 31) — New institutional buying

BURL (Burlington Stores)

• No recent news in last 7 days. RSI 74.42 suggests late-stage momentum—stock may be overbought.

NGG (National Grid plc)

• Red flag: Rosen Law Firm Encourages National Grid plc Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation (PRNewswire, Dec 31) — Legal investigation ongoing
• NGG Investor News: If You Have Suffered Losses (GlobeNewsWire, Jan 2) — Allegations of materially misleading business information

NVO (Novo Nordisk A/S)

• Why Novo Nordisk (NVO) Outpaced the Stock Market Today (Zacks, Jan 2) — Stock +2.97% on Jan 2
• Spotlight on Health ETFs as NVO & LLY Cut Obesity Drug Price in China (Zacks, Jan 2) — Wegovy price cuts in China
• FDA Approves Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Pill: A Game Changer for 2026 (MarketBeat, Dec 31) — Shares received 7% boost on Dec 23
• Novo Nordisk enters 2026 on the defense as it faces a 'must-win' battle in the U.S. market (CNBC, Jan 1) — Headwinds including lower pricing, patent expiries

MRCY (Mercury Systems)

• Red flag: JANA Partners Management sold 1 million shares for $75.45M on Nov 6 (major insider dump)

VKTX (Viking Therapeutics)

• Heavy insider selling: -$1.56M net over 90 days (CEO, COO, CFO all sold in late Oct)

📉 Sell-Side Signals (11 Total) — Death Crosses

Field Notes:

• MRUS RSI 7.37 is extreme capitulation. This is the lowest RSI in the entire dataset. Stock has been obliterated—down massively from highs. The death cross confirms the breakdown.
• Insider Net: MRUS shows +$7.36B—this is from Genmab A/S (10% owner) purchasing 75.9M shares at $97 on Dec 29. This is a tender offer/acquisition-related transaction, not typical insider buying. Don't read this as bullish—the stock is still in death cross with RSI 7.37.
• Lower RSI on sell signals = stocks already in decline. Death cross confirms the downtrend.

Recent Headlines — Sell-Side Signals

BRBR (BellRing Brands)

• Major red flag: BRBR INVESTIGATION: Did BellRing Brands Mislead Investors? (GlobeNewsWire, Dec 29) — Securities fraud investigation after 18% stock drop
• BellRing Brands (BRBR) Investors are Notified that Company is being Investigated (Newsfile Corp, Dec 26) — Federal securities law violations alleged

MRUS (Merus N.V.)

• Genmab A/S acquired 75.9 million shares at $97 on Dec 29 (tender offer related, explains the massive $7.36B "insider net")
• RSI 7.37 = extreme oversold. Stock in freefall despite acquisition activity.

ARGX (argenx SE)

• argenex SE Given Average Recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by Brokerages (Defense World, Jan 2) — 6 holds, 19 buys, 1 strong buy

MPW (Medical Properties Trust)

• Medical Properties (MPW) Surpasses Market Returns (Zacks, Jan 2) — +1.6% on Jan 2, but death cross confirms downtrend

DOCU (DocuSign)

• No significant recent news. Death cross at RSI 31.83 signals weakening momentum.

Field Notes: Market Context & Strategy Insights

Sector Rotation Observations:

• Healthcare dominance: 10 of 29 signals (34%) are healthcare—6 buy-side (ABBV, HUM, NVO, ATR, SUPN, VKTX), 4 sell-side (ARGX, INSM, MRUS, TMDX, UHS). This sector is experiencing crosscurrents.
• Technology: 5 signals—4 buy (ALGM, TDY, ALAB, WRD), 1 sell (DOCU). Tech is mostly bullish on SMA20×50 crosses.
• Industrials: 3 signals—2 buy (MRCY, LHX), 1 sell (KBR, BLD).
• Consumer: 2 buy (BURL, GNTX), 1 sell (BRBR).

RSI Interpretation — Buy Signals:

• Oversold entries (RSI 30-50): ALGM (39.05), VKTX (40.13), TDY (46.06), HUM (48.42), MRCY (48.53), GNTX (49.36). These are high-conviction golden crosses from oversold levels—classic mean-reversion setups.
• Neutral to overbought (RSI 50-65): MGNI (50.98), ALAB (52.97), LYV (57.55), WRD (58.20), NVO (59.37), AVB (60.31), ABBV (62.42), LHX (64.80). Momentum is building but not extended.
• Overbought (RSI 65-80): ATR (67.86), SUPN (69.54), BURL (74.42), NGG (75.28). These are late-stage golden crosses—momentum is strong but risk of pullback is higher. Consider waiting for dips.

RSI Interpretation — Sell Signals:

• Extreme capitulation: MRUS (7.37), BRBR (18.97), KBR (21.35). These stocks are in freefall. Death crosses confirm downtrends, but oversold bounces are possible.
• Weak momentum: ARGX (26.00), MPW (28.57), DOCU (31.83), INSM (34.46). These are deteriorating but not yet capitulating.
• Neutral decline: UHS (40.03), TMDX (40.58), BLD (42.28), WELL (55.29). Death crosses on relatively neutral RSI suggest momentum is turning negative.

Insider Selling Red Flags:

• MRCY: -$75.45M — JANA Partners Management sold 1 million shares on Nov 6. This is the biggest insider dump in the dataset. Red flag on a golden cross signal.
• VKTX: -$1.56M — CEO, COO, CFO all sold in late October. Red flag.
• LHX: -$3.93M — CEO sold $4.27M in Nov. Minor concern.
• BLD: -$450K — VP sold. Minor.
• UHS: -$32K — Negligible.

Only MRUS has massive insider buying (+$7.36B), but this is acquisition-related (Genmab tender offer), not typical bullish insider buying. The stock is at RSI 7.37—don't chase this.

Earnings Proximity:

• Very soon (<30 days): ALGM (27), TDY (26), HUM (39), GNTX (28), ABBV (28), LHX (27), BRBR (31), VKTX (33), NVO (33), AVB (33).
• Approaching (30-60 days): MRCY (32), ALAB (38), LYV (48), MGNI (54), ATR (34), SUPN (53), KBR (52), ARGX (55), MPW (55), INSM (48), TMDX (55), UHS (54), BLD (53), MRUS (55).
• Distant (>60 days): BURL (62), WRD (70), DOCU (69), WELL (39).

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Market Backdrop (Jan 2, 2026):

Today's market showed mixed internals: S&P 500 -0.29%, Dow +0.57%, Nasdaq -1.05%. Tech sold off hard while blue-chips held steady—classic sector rotation. The VIX closed at 14.51 (-2.29%), indicating low volatility and complacent sentiment. Small-caps (Russell 2000) gained +0.66%, slightly outperforming. Treasury yields climbed (10Y at 4.193%, +0.77%), pressuring growth names—hence the Nasdaq weakness. Crypto rallied: Bitcoin +4.06%, Ethereum +4.06%. Overall: Cautiously mixed environment with sector rotation in play.

On Today's Signals:

Twenty-nine SMA20×50 crossovers is a healthy number—not too many (which would indicate choppy conditions), not too few (which would indicate stagnation). These are high-quality, stable signals because SMAs filter out noise better than EMAs.

Buy-side standouts:

ALGM (RSI 39.05) is the top buy-side setup. Golden cross from oversold levels (RSI <40) on a technology stock with no insider selling and earnings 27 days out. This is a textbook entry. The stock crossed above SMA50 today, confirming a shift from downtrend to uptrend. No recent news, which is fine—technical setups don't need catalysts. High conviction.

TDY (RSI 46.06) is another strong pick. Technology/industrial play, RSI near neutral, earnings 26 days out. No insider activity. This is a clean golden cross without red flags.

HUM (RSI 48.42) is interesting. Healthcare giant with golden cross at neutral RSI. Earnings 39 days out = low event risk. No insider activity. Humana is a slow-moving giant—this signal suggests trend shift.

NVO (RSI 59.37) has catalysts but headwinds. FDA approved Wegovy pill (bullish), but the company cut obesity drug prices in China and faces "must-win battle" in US market (bearish). Golden cross confirms momentum, but the news is mixed. Only for those with conviction on the obesity drug market.

BURL (RSI 74.42) and NGG (RSI 75.28) are overbought. BURL is late-stage momentum—might squeeze higher, but risk/reward is poor. NGG has a class-action securities investigation ongoing (major red flag). Avoid NGG entirely. BURL is a "wait for pullback" play.

MRCY (RSI 48.53) has the -$75.45M insider dump. JANA Partners sold 1 million shares on Nov 6. This is a trap signal. Insiders dumping on a golden cross = they know something you don't. Avoid.

VKTX (RSI 40.13) also has heavy insider selling (-$1.56M). CEO, COO, CFO all sold in October. Avoid.

Sell-side standouts:

MRUS (RSI 7.37) is in extreme capitulation. This is the lowest RSI in the entire dataset. The stock has been obliterated. The $7.36B "insider buying" is misleading—it's a Genmab tender offer at $97, not bullish accumulation. The death cross at RSI 7.37 confirms the stock is in freefall. Do not catch this falling knife. Only for contrarians with high risk tolerance and a specific thesis on biotech turnarounds.

BRBR (RSI 18.97) has a securities fraud investigation. The stock dropped 18%, and law firms are investigating potential federal securities law violations. Death cross confirms the breakdown. Avoid entirely.

KBR (RSI 21.35) is oversold on death cross. This could be a capitulation low, but without catalysts or insider buying, it's risky. Pass.

ARGX (RSI 26.00) has analyst support (19 buy ratings, 1 strong buy), but the death cross signals technical weakness. This is a "wait and see" situation. If you're bullish on biotech, wait for the stock to stabilize before entering.

WELL (RSI 55.29) is the only death cross with neutral RSI. This is the most concerning type of death cross—momentum rolling over from strength, not from weakness. Could be early-stage breakdown. Watch closely.

Trading Strategy:

1. Buy-side focus: ALGM, TDY, HUM

   • ALGM: Entry at $26.91 (current), stop $25.50 (below SMA50), target $30-$32 (+11-19%). 1-2 month hold.
   • TDY: Entry $518-$520, stop $500 (below SMA50 at $513), target $550-$570 (+6-10%). 1-3 month hold.
   • HUM: Entry $264-$265, stop $255 (below SMA50 at $258), target $280-$290 (+6-10%). 2-3 month hold.

2. Avoid: MRCY, VKTX, NGG, BRBR, MRUS

   • MRCY/VKTX: Heavy insider selling.
   • NGG: Legal investigation.
   • BRBR: Securities fraud investigation.
   • MRUS: Extreme capitulation (RSI 7.37).

3. Wait for pullback: BURL

   • RSI 74.42 = overbought. Wait for RSI to drop below 65 or price to pull back to $285-$290.

4. NVO: Only if you have obesity drug conviction.

   • Headwinds are real (price cuts, patent expiries), but FDA approval of Wegovy pill is bullish. This is a thesis-driven play, not a technical slam-dunk.

5. Sell-side shorts (for experienced traders only):

   • WELL (RSI 55.29): Death cross from neutral RSI could be early-stage breakdown. Short at $186-$187, cover at $175-$178 (SMA50 at $190 is resistance). Tight stop at $192.
   • ARGX (RSI 26.00): If you're bearish on biotech, this is a death cross on already weak momentum. But analyst support suggests buyers may step in. High risk.

6. SMA20×50 strategy is medium-term (4-12 weeks). Don't expect instant moves. These signals take time to develop. Be patient.

Key Considerations:

• VIX at 14.51 = low volatility. This is supportive for swing trades, but complacency can flip quickly if VIX spikes.

• Rising yields (10Y at 4.193%) pressure growth stocks. This is a headwind for tech names like ALAB, TDY, ALGM. If yields continue rising, these plays become riskier.

• Extended non-trading period alert: Markets are closed Sat-Sun (Jan 3-4). News flow over the weekend could gap stocks on Monday, Jan 5. Weekend gap risk is real—especially for stocks with legal issues (NGG, BRBR) or extreme RSI (MRUS). Consider reducing overnight exposure or using protective stops.

Bottom line: ALGM, TDY, HUM are high-conviction golden crosses from oversold/neutral levels. Avoid MRCY, VKTX (insider selling), NGG, BRBR (legal issues), and MRUS (extreme capitulation). BURL is overbought—wait for pullback. SMA20×50 is a stable, medium-term strategy—let these setups develop over weeks, not days. The VIX at 14.51 suggests a supportive environment, but sector rotation (tech weak) and rising yields add headwinds. Trade selectively, use stops, and respect the medium-term timeframe.

Stay sharp. 🎯

⚠️ Extended Non-Trading Period Alert

Important: The next 2 days (Saturday, January 03 through Sunday, January 04) are non-trading days (weekend).

What this means:

• Markets will not reopen until Monday, January 05
• News and events occurring over this extended non-trading period may significantly influence market sentiment
• Monitor news flow closely during this period, especially for:
  • NGG (class-action securities investigation)
  • BRBR (securities fraud investigation)
  • NVO (obesity drug pricing and FDA approval developments)
  • MRUS (potential acquisition/tender offer developments)
• Be prepared for potential gaps or increased volatility when markets reopen
• Earnings announcements, geopolitical events, or major news during this period can lead to significant price movements at the open
• Consider adjusting position sizes or using protective stops given the extended gap risk

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