EverHint Signal — SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover — January 7, 2026

What This Signal Is (Quick)

SMA20 × SMA50 Crossover is a classic trend-following strategy that detects fresh crossovers between the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages:

📈 Buy Signal — "Golden Cross":

• SMA(20) crosses above SMA(50) on today's close
• Short-term momentum (20 days) exceeds medium-term trend (50 days)
• Bullish trend confirmation with high reliability
• Ideal for medium-term trend following (4-12 week holding periods)

📉 Sell Signal — "Death Cross":

• SMA(20) crosses below SMA(50) on today's close
• Short-term momentum weakens below medium-term trend
• Bearish trend confirmation
• Signals exit points or trend reversal alerts

Key Characteristics:

• Uses two SMAs (both simple moving averages) for maximum stability
• Most stable strategy — fewer signals but highest quality (fewer whipsaws)
• Better suited for medium-term trends with confirmed momentum
• Lower risk entries compared to faster EMA-based strategies

This is an experimental scanner. Signals are for educational purposes and backtesting—not trade recommendations. Always do your own due diligence.

Total Signals today: 38 (22 Buy, 16 Sell)

📊 Market Overview (January 7, 2026)

• S&P 500: 6,920.92 (-0.35%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 23,584.27 (+0.17%)
• Dow Jones: 48,996.09 (-1.04%)
• Russell 2000: 2,573.78 (-0.46%)
• VIX: 15.38 (Normal volatility, +2.88%)

Mixed session with technology showing resilience while blue chips retreated. VIX remains in normal range, suggesting stable market conditions.

🎯 Buy Signals (22)

The 20-day simple moving average (SMA20) crossed above the 50-day moving average (SMA50) for these stocks, suggesting potential upward momentum:

📉 Sell Signals (16)

The 20-day SMA crossed below the 50-day SMA for these stocks, suggesting potential downward momentum:

💼 Insider Trading Highlights

Major Insider Activity (Last 60 Days):

Significant Buying:

• REZI: +$44.18M — CD&R Channel Holdings II (10% owner) made substantial purchases between Nov 10-13, buying 1.41M shares at prices ranging from $30.54 to $32.08
• AJG: +$148,981 — VP Michael Pesch purchased 599 shares at $248.72
• QBTS: +$1,795 — Director Steven West purchased 82 shares at $21.89

Significant Selling:

• IOT: -$7.68M — Multiple insiders (CEO Biswas, executives) sold heavily in Dec-Jan
• QBTS: -$5.26M — CFO John Markovich sold 200K shares in early December
• KTOS: -$917,767 — CEO DeMarco sold shares in Jan and late Dec
• FSLY: -$740,108 — CTO Artur Bergman continuing regular selling pattern
• NBIX: -$741,206 — CLO and CEO sales in November
• GPOR: -$536,850 — Director Timothy Cutt sold 2,500 shares at $214.74
• AHR: -$994,105 — Director Jeffrey Hanson sold 20,010 shares at $49.68
• IP: -$693,480 — SVP Clay Ellis sold 18,819 shares at $36.85
• BF-B: -$148,335 — CEO Lawson Whiting sold 4,785 shares at $31.00
• AJG: Net selling from various executives despite VP Pesch's buy

Note: Only Purchase (P) and Sale (S) transactions are included. Exercise (M), Award (A), Gift (G), Tax (F), and other non-market transactions are excluded.

📅 Upcoming Earnings Calendar

⚠️ HIGH RISK (Earnings within 7 days):

• None this week

MODERATE RISK (8-30 days):

• UNH — Jan 15 (bmo) — 8 days ⚠️
• AJG, BMI, CHD, IP, ABBV — Jan 29-30 — 22-23 days
• SIMO, CSGS, STE, LIN, NBIX — Feb 4-5 — 28-29 days

LOW RISK (30+ days):

• Most other signals have earnings 35+ days out, providing ample runway for position development

📰 Recent News & Catalysts

Key Stories:

ABBV (AbbVie):

• Major M&A: In advanced talks to acquire Revolution Medicines (~$16B biotech deal) per WSJ
• Strong neuroscience portfolio driving 17%+ of revenue growth
• Q4 earnings call scheduled for Feb 4, 2026
• Analyst sentiment positive on long-term growth despite near-term MFN pricing pressures

UNH (UnitedHealth Group):

• Stock down 34.5% over past year amid cost pressures and margin compression
• Controversy: New report alleges PBM rebate hiding via shell companies (Hunterbrook Media)
• TPG reportedly in talks to acquire Optum UK unit for £1.2-1.4B
• Q4 earnings Jan 15 (8 days) — critical catalyst ahead
• Multiple analyst warnings to wait for earnings clarity before buying

KTOS (Kratos Defense):

• Initiated with Buy rating by JonesResearch
• Focus on speed, agility in responsive space infrastructure
• Strong momentum but profit margins remain a concern
• Heavy insider selling by CEO may signal valuation concerns

TOST (Toast):

• Restaurant POS platform showing strong cash generation
• Topgolf expanding Toast POS rollout for venue efficiency
• Initiated with Buy rating by analyst citing sustainable growth
• Q2 earnings miss ($0.13 vs $0.22e) now in rearview; Q3 stabilized stock

IOT (Samsara):

• Named in "5 Momentum Stocks for January" list (Zacks)
• Heavy insider selling raises concerns (-$7.68M in last 60 days)
• Earnings not until March 5 (57 days out)

PONY (Pony AI):

• Chinese autonomous vehicle company momentum starting to fade
• Analyst consensus remains bullish despite recent price action

TMHC (Taylor Morrison):

• Recognized as "America's Most Trusted Home Builder" for 11th consecutive year
• Q4 earnings scheduled for Feb 11

Vlad's Take

Market Context:
Tuesday's session showed classic sector rotation — tech held firm (+0.17% on Nasdaq) while industrials and blue chips sold off (Dow -1.04%). VIX at 15.38 signals normal volatility, not panic. This is healthy consolidation, not a risk-off event.

What the SMA Crossover Is Telling Us:
The SMA20 x SMA50 strategy captures momentum shifts as shorter-term trends either align with (buy signal) or diverge from (sell signal) the intermediate trend. With 22 buy signals versus 16 sells, we're seeing broad-based technical strength despite mixed market action.

Standout Opportunities:

1. REZI (Resideo Technologies) — The $44.18M insider buying spree by a 10% owner is a screaming vote of confidence. When sophisticated institutional investors back up the truck at $30-32, you pay attention. The SMA golden cross is confirming what insiders already knew.

2. ABBV (AbbVie) — The Revolution Medicines acquisition news is exactly the kind of pipeline replenishment AbbVie needs post-Humira. At $233 with a 3.7% yield and strong Skyrizi/Rinvoq growth, this is a buy-the-dip setup if the deal closes smoothly.

3. SIMO (Silicon Motion) — RSI at 93.23 is extreme, signaling massive momentum. Price at $121 vs SMA200 at $75 shows a structural breakout. This is a semiconductor play catching AI tailwinds.

4. KTOS (Kratos Defense) — JonesResearch initiation gives credibility, but that $918K in CEO selling is a yellow flag. Momentum is strong (RSI 73.60), but I'd want to see insider activity stabilize before getting aggressive.

Red Flags to Watch:

1. UNH (UnitedHealth) — Earnings in 8 days with the stock down 34.5% YoY and controversy swirling around PBM practices. This is a "wait for clarity" situation. If you're long, set tight stops. If you're sidelined, let earnings pass first.

2. IOT (Samsara) — The sell signal combined with -$7.68M in insider selling is a double negative. Insiders are running for the exits while the moving averages roll over. Pass.

3. QBTS (D-Wave Quantum) — Quantum computing hype is real, but the CFO dumping $5.26M worth of stock while it's hot suggests he thinks it's topped. Tread carefully despite the buy signal.

Sector Themes:

• Healthcare (9 signals): Mixed bag — ABBV/ELAN/UNH show buy signals, but UNH's uncertainty and NBIX's sell signal suggest caution. Cherry-pick here.
• Technology (9 signals): SIMO, TOST, PONY on the buy side look strong. Avoid IOT, FSLY, BMI on the sell side.
• Energy (4 sells): CNQ, NOG, OVV, GPOR all showing sell signals. Energy sector weakness continues.

Trading Strategy:
For buy signals, I'd focus on stocks with:

• Insider buying (REZI is the clear winner)
• Strong fundamental catalysts (ABBV's M&A, TOST's POS expansion)
• Earnings sufficiently far out (35+ days preferred)

For sell signals, use these as candidates for:

• Profit-taking if you're long
• Short opportunities if your strategy allows (IOT, FSLY look weak)
• Avoiding new longs until the trend reverses

Bottom Line:
This signal set offers quality setups, but don't ignore the context. UNH's earnings risk, massive insider selling in KTOS/IOT/QBTS, and energy sector weakness are real concerns. REZI's insider buying and ABBV's strategic M&A are the standouts. Pick your spots carefully.

⚠️ Risk Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investors should:

• Conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions
• Consider their individual risk tolerance and investment objectives
• Be aware that insider transactions may not always predict future stock performance
• Understand that technical signals can produce false positives
• Recognize that past performance does not guarantee future results
• Monitor earnings dates closely, as volatility typically increases near announcements

Key Risks:

• Earnings Volatility: UNH reports in 8 days; others within 22-30 days
• Insider Selling: Heavy selling in KTOS, IOT, QBTS, FSLY may signal overvaluation
• Sector Weakness: Energy names showing broad-based sell signals
• Market Conditions: Mixed market action could lead to false breakouts/breakdowns

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This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
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