EverHint - Stock Market News — February 19, 2026 — Breaking Developments

Executive Summary

U.S. markets softened Thursday following hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which revealed policymakers' concerns about persistent inflation and diminishing urgency for rate cuts. Walmart's new CEO began his tenure with conservative fiscal 2027 guidance despite solid Q4 results, weighing on retail sentiment, while the most dramatic development came from alternative investments as Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions at one of its funds—deepening a selloff in private equity shares and raising liquidity concerns across the asset class. Earnings delivered sharp divergence: DoorDash soared 11% on strong delivery demand growth, Deere raised its full-year profit forecast, and eBay guided upbeat revenue, while Carvana tumbled 8% on rising reconditioning costs and Etsy missed revenue estimates. European markets struggled with Airbus plunging 6% on weak 2026 delivery guidance amid engine shortages and Rio Tinto disappointing on flat earnings. In technology, OpenAI's funding round is on track to exceed $100 billion valuation, Google unveiled Gemini 3.1 Pro with enhanced reasoning capabilities, and New York Governor Hochul abruptly pulled her robotaxi expansion proposal—dealing a blow to Waymo's growth plans.

Sentiment Breakdown

Net Sentiment: +5% Slightly Bullish (cautious optimism amid crosscurrents)

Top Market-Moving Headlines (24-Hour Window)

🔴 Monetary Policy - Fed Minutes

• Headline: Federal Reserve minutes reveal hawkish tone, policymakers cite inflation concerns and diminished rate cut urgency
• Market Impact: Fed officials expressed less conviction about near-term rate cuts than markets anticipated, citing persistent inflation pressures and robust labor market; bond yields climbed and rate-cut expectations pushed further into 2026, increasing equity valuation pressure particularly on growth stocks.

🔴 Retail - Walmart Guidance

• Headline: New Walmart CEO begins tenure with cautious fiscal 2027 outlook despite another quarter of steady sales growth
• Market Impact: Despite solid Q4 performance, conservative guidance from America's largest retailer (over $1 trillion market cap) signals economic headwinds ahead; management's caution on consumer spending and margin pressures carries broad implications for retail sector and consumption trends.

🔴 Private Equity - Blue Owl Crisis

• Headline: Blue Owl Capital halts redemptions at retail fund after selling $1.4 billion in assets, deepening private equity selloff
• Market Impact: Redemption suspension at major alternative investment firm raises systemic concerns about liquidity stress in private credit markets; follows broader pattern of retail investors pulling capital from illiquid strategies, potentially forcing fire sales and creating contagion risk across private equity sector.

🟢 Food Delivery - DoorDash Surge

• Headline: DoorDash shares jump 11% premarket as strong delivery demand fuels optimistic growth forecast for coming quarters
• Market Impact: Food delivery leader's robust guidance demonstrates resilient consumer spending on convenience services despite economic concerns; strong order volume growth and improved unit economics validate gig economy business model sustainability.

🟢 Agriculture - Deere Raises Forecast

• Headline: Farm machinery maker Deere raises full-year net income forecast, shares rise on improved agricultural equipment demand
• Market Impact: Guidance increase from industrial bellwether signals stabilizing farm economy after multi-year downturn; benefits from earlier inventory destocking completion and modest improvement in farmer sentiment despite elevated input costs.

🔴 Aerospace - Airbus Tumbles

• Headline: Airbus shares plunge 6% after weak 2026 delivery outlook offsets Q4 profit beat, citing Pratt & Whitney engine shortages
• Market Impact: European planemaker softened production targets amid persistent supply chain disruptions; engine delivery delays forcing aircraft delivery postponements highlight ongoing aerospace manufacturing challenges that could extend airline fleet renewal timelines and impact Boeing competition.

🟢 E-Commerce - eBay Upbeat

• Headline: eBay forecasts first-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates and announces acquisition of fashion resale platform Depop
• Market Impact: Online marketplace's optimistic guidance and strategic M&A demonstrates resilience in e-commerce despite Amazon dominance; Depop acquisition strengthens fashion category positioning and appeals to younger demographic.

🔴 Auto Retail - Carvana Slides

• Headline: Used-car retailer Carvana shares tumble 8% as rising vehicle reconditioning expenses climb, squeezing margins
• Market Impact: Increased costs to refurbish used vehicles before resale eroding profitability gains from earlier turnaround efforts; raises questions about business model sustainability if reconditioning inflation persists and used car pricing power weakens.

🔴 E-Commerce - Etsy Misses

• Headline: Online marketplace Etsy misses fourth-quarter revenue estimates, indicating weaker consumer demand for handmade goods
• Market Impact: Revenue shortfall suggests discretionary spending pullback affecting niche e-commerce platforms; competitive pressures from Amazon Handmade and Temu impacting growth trajectory.

🟢 AI Funding - OpenAI Round

• Headline: OpenAI funding round on track to top $100 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg report on first phase completion
• Market Impact: Massive valuation for AI leader demonstrates continued investor appetite for artificial intelligence infrastructure despite recent tech sector volatility; validates thesis that AI revolution remains early-stage with significant capital deployment ahead.

🟢 Technology - Google AI Release

• Headline: Google unveils Gemini 3.1 Pro with enhanced reasoning capabilities designed for complex problem-solving tasks across domains
• Market Impact: Latest AI model release intensifies competition with OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude; improved reasoning abilities target enterprise use cases and could accelerate Google Cloud adoption among businesses seeking advanced AI capabilities.

🔴 Regulatory - NY Robotaxi Block

• Headline: New York Governor Hochul pulls robotaxi expansion proposal, dealing blow to Waymo's planned commercial service growth
• Market Impact: Unexpected regulatory reversal halts autonomous vehicle commercialization in major metropolitan market; reflects growing political caution around self-driving technology safety and labor displacement concerns that could slow nationwide deployment timelines.

🟢 Healthcare M&A - Hims & Hers Acquisition

• Headline: Hims & Hers Health to acquire Australia's Eucalyptus telehealth platform for up to $1.15 billion, stock rises 8%
• Market Impact: Major international expansion for digital health company extends GLP-1 weight loss drug telehealth model to Australia market; strategic acquisition diversifies geographic revenue and validates telehealth business model despite ongoing FDA scrutiny of compounding operations.

🔴 Software - EPAM Guidance Disappoints

• Headline: EPAM Systems shares tumble as cautious first-quarter outlook disappoints investors despite in-line forecast
• Market Impact: IT services provider's conservative guidance reflects enterprise software spending uncertainty; clients reassessing budgets and delaying projects amid economic uncertainty, creating revenue visibility challenges for consulting firms.

🔴 Regulatory - Apple Lawsuit

• Headline: West Virginia sues Apple over iCloud's alleged role in distribution of child sex abuse material via cloud storage
• Market Impact: State-level litigation targeting Apple's encryption and content moderation practices creates legal precedent risk; could force changes to iCloud privacy features and establish pattern for other states to pursue similar claims against tech platforms.

Thematic Analysis

Federal Reserve Hawkish Pivot Creates Rate Cut Uncertainty (3 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Bearish for equities
• Key Headlines:
  • Fed minutes reveal hawkish tone with diminished rate cut urgency
  • Wall Street dips on mixed economic data and rate uncertainty
  • TSX gains as traders assess Fed minutes' implications
• Analysis: Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes revealed Federal Reserve policymakers are less convinced about near-term rate cuts than markets had priced in, citing persistent inflation pressures particularly in services sector and continued labor market strength. The hawkish shift comes as economic data remains mixed—jobless claims and housing data providing conflicting signals about growth trajectory. Markets had anticipated potential rate cuts beginning mid-2026, but Fed commentary suggests officials want to see more convincing disinflationary progress before easing policy. The uncertainty creates valuation headwinds for growth stocks that benefit most from lower rates, while supporting dollar strength and pressuring commodities priced in dollars. Bond yields climbed following the minutes release, with 10-year Treasury pushing higher and yield curve steepening. The Fed's cautious stance reflects lessons learned from premature easing in previous cycles, but creates tension with equity market expectations that had grown comfortable with accommodative policy pivot. Canadian markets (TSX) showed resilience despite Fed hawkishness, benefiting from commodity exposure and stronger domestic growth signals.
• Implication: Rate cut timeline pushed further into 2026; equity valuations face pressure especially in high-growth sectors; dollar strength weighs on international earnings; bond market repricing creates volatility.

Private Equity Liquidity Stress Intensifies (2 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Bearish (systemic risk emerging)
• Key Headlines:
  • Blue Owl halts redemptions at retail fund after selling $1.4 billion in assets, shares fall 2.3%
  • Private capital firm selling assets from three funds to pension insurance investors
• Analysis: Blue Owl Capital's decision to suspend redemptions at one of its retail-focused funds represents the most visible sign yet of mounting liquidity stress in private equity and credit markets. The firm has been forced to sell $1.4 billion in assets from three funds to pension insurance investors—suggesting difficulties meeting redemption requests from retail investors who flooded into alternative investments during the low-rate era. The move deepens a broader selloff in publicly-traded private equity shares as investors reassess liquidity risk in illiquid asset classes. This follows a multi-quarter pattern of retail outflows from interval funds and non-traded REITs as investors seek exit amid falling valuations and rising public market opportunities. The redemption halt raises contagion concerns: if other private capital firms face similar pressure, forced asset sales could depress valuations across private markets and create feedback loops. Blue Owl's predicament highlights fundamental tension in offering daily/monthly liquidity on fundamentally illiquid assets—a structural vulnerability that works during inflows but breaks during outflows. The stress comes as private equity firms struggle with "denominator effect" (public equity gains making private allocations oversized) and questions about inflated private market valuations relative to public equivalents.
• Implication: Private equity redemption gates may proliferate; forced asset sales could depress valuations; retail investors burned by liquidity mismatch; institutional allocators reassessing alternative investment exposure.

Retail Sector Shows Spending Bifurcation (4 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Mixed (divergence by category)
• Key Headlines:
  • Walmart's new CEO begins with cautious outlook after steady Q4 sales
  • DoorDash shares jump 11% on delivery demand growth forecast
  • Carvana tumbles 8% as vehicle reconditioning costs climb
  • Etsy misses Q4 revenue estimates on weaker handmade goods demand
• Analysis: Retail earnings reveal sharp bifurcation in consumer spending with convenience services thriving (DoorDash) while discretionary categories struggle (Etsy) and big-box retailers exercise caution (Walmart). Walmart's conservative fiscal 2027 guidance from new CEO Furner signals concerns about consumer resilience despite the retailer's $1+ trillion market capitalization and solid Q4 performance—management seeing pressures from tariff threats, wage inflation, and potential consumer fatigue. DoorDash's explosive 11% premarket gain on strong guidance demonstrates that consumers prioritize convenience and time-saving services even amid economic uncertainty; food delivery penetration continuing to grow with improved unit economics validating the gig economy model. Carvana's 8% plunge on rising reconditioning costs highlights margin pressure in used auto retail—refurbishment expenses climbing faster than pricing power, threatening the online disruptor's turnaround narrative. Etsy's revenue miss suggests discretionary pullback in niche handmade goods category as consumers face competition from cheaper alternatives like Temu and prioritize essentials over artisan products. The divergence pattern: services > goods, convenience > discretionary, value > premium—consistent with late-cycle consumer behavior where households maintain lifestyle convenience but cut back on nice-to-have purchases.
• Implication: Consumer spending remains resilient but selective; convenience and value winners; discretionary goods and premium categories face headwinds; retail margin pressure from costs and competition.

Aerospace Supply Chain Disruptions Persist (2 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Bearish for production timelines
• Key Headlines:
  • Airbus tumbles 6% on weak 2026 delivery outlook amid Pratt & Whitney engine shortage
  • Airbus softens output target in engine row, Q4 profit beat overshadowed
• Analysis: Airbus's 6% share price collapse following weak 2026 delivery guidance demonstrates that aerospace supply chain problems remain severe and unresolved despite years of efforts to address bottlenecks. The European planemaker was forced to soften its main jet production goal due to persistent Pratt & Whitney engine delivery delays—a problem cascading through the narrow-body aircraft production system and forcing delivery postponements to airline customers. Despite beating Q4 profit expectations, markets focused on the forward-looking production challenges that threaten revenue recognition and cash flow generation. The engine shortage issue stems from P&W's geared turbofan (GTF) durability problems that have required accelerated inspection schedules and fleet groundings, leaving the manufacturer struggling to deliver new engines while supporting existing fleet. This supply constraint creates competitive advantage for Boeing's 737 MAX family powered by rival CFM LEAP engines—though Boeing faces its own quality and production challenges. Airlines waiting for Airbus deliveries face capacity constraints that limit growth and force extended operation of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. The situation highlights that despite post-pandemic demand recovery, aerospace manufacturing remains capacity-constrained across multiple bottlenecks (engines, avionics, labor) that will take years to fully resolve.
• Implication: Aircraft delivery delays extend into 2026-2027; airline capacity growth constrained; aerospace manufacturing challenges create persistent headwinds; Boeing may gain competitive ground in narrow-body market.

AI Investment Momentum Accelerates Despite Tech Volatility (4 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Bullish (long-term conviction)
• Key Headlines:
  • OpenAI funding round on track to top $100 billion valuation
  • Google unveils Gemini 3.1 Pro with enhanced reasoning capabilities
  • Google and Southeast Asian conglomerate Sea to develop AI tools for e-commerce and gaming
  • Wolfe Research says AI rotation signals reset, not reversal in AI trade
• Analysis: Artificial intelligence investment continues at breakneck pace despite recent equity market turbulence, with OpenAI closing in on a funding round exceeding $100 billion valuation—demonstrating that sophisticated investors view near-term volatility as noise relative to AI's transformational potential. The massive valuation for the ChatGPT creator comes as competition intensifies, with Google releasing Gemini 3.1 Pro featuring enhanced reasoning capabilities designed to challenge GPT-4's enterprise dominance. Google's simultaneous partnership with Southeast Asian tech giant Sea Ltd to develop AI tools for e-commerce and gaming shows the technology spreading beyond frontier model development into vertical-specific applications. Wolfe Research's note characterizing recent AI stock turbulence as a "reset, not reversal" in the AI trade captures Wall Street's evolving view: after explosive 2023-2025 gains, some consolidation is healthy, but the fundamental thesis remains intact. The research firm argues market rotation away from concentrated AI beneficiaries represents profit-taking and broadening, not a collapse in conviction about AI's economic impact. OpenAI's ability to command $100B+ valuation despite fierce competition from Google, Anthropic, and open-source alternatives validates that the AI infrastructure layer remains winner-take-most with network effects and capital requirements creating moats. The capital intensity required for frontier model training (billions in compute costs) means only well-funded players can compete at the cutting edge.
• Implication: AI investment cycle far from peak; competition intensifying but not diluting valuations; vertical AI applications proliferating; infrastructure and semiconductor beneficiaries positioned for sustained demand.

Autonomous Vehicle Regulatory Headwinds Mount (2 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Bearish for commercialization timeline
• Key Headlines:
  • New York Governor Hochul pulls robotaxi expansion proposal, dealing blow to Waymo
  • New York pulls robotaxi plan after initially proposing commercial service in smaller cities
• Analysis: New York Governor Kathy Hochul's abrupt reversal on robotaxi expansion—withdrawing her proposal to allow commercial autonomous taxi services in smaller upstate cities—represents a significant regulatory setback for the autonomous vehicle industry and particularly impacts Waymo's geographic expansion strategy. The pullback follows the pattern of initial enthusiasm for AV technology followed by political caution once deployment becomes imminent, reflecting concerns about safety, labor displacement (taxi and ride-share driver job losses), and liability questions. Hochul's reversal comes despite Waymo's relatively strong safety record in California and Arizona operations, suggesting political rather than technical concerns drove the decision—likely influenced by powerful labor unions representing professional drivers and public anxiety about autonomous systems. The New York market represents enormous commercial opportunity given dense urban environment and high ride-hailing demand, making the regulatory block particularly costly. This follows other jurisdictions slowing AV deployment after initial pilot approvals, creating patchwork regulatory environment that complicates national scaling for companies like Waymo (Alphabet), Cruise (GM), and Tesla's planned robotaxi service. The regulatory uncertainty extends commercialization timelines and increases capital requirements as AV companies must maintain expensive pilot operations longer before reaching revenue-generating scale.
• Implication: Autonomous vehicle commercialization facing extended timeline; regulatory fragmentation creates scaling challenges; labor concerns driving political opposition; AV companies face prolonged cash burn before profitability.

Global M&A Activity Remains Robust (5 headlines)

• Net Sentiment: Bullish for deal flow
• Key Headlines:
  • Hims & Hers to acquire Australia's Eucalyptus for up to $1.15 billion
  • Visa to buy payment firms Prisma and Newpay to deepen Argentina footprint
  • Bain Capital explores sale or IPO of portfolio company Dessert Holdings
  • Goldman Sachs-backed management buyout offer for Raksul raised 11% after investor pushback
  • Glencore nears $4 billion sale of Kazzinc stake to Kazakh businessman
• Analysis: Merger and acquisition activity continues at healthy pace across multiple sectors and geographies, demonstrating that strategic buyers and financial sponsors remain active despite market volatility and interest rate uncertainty. Hims & Hers' $1.15 billion acquisition of Australian telehealth platform Eucalyptus represents aggressive international expansion for the digital health disruptor, extending its GLP-1 weight loss drug telehealth model into the Australia-Pacific market and diversifying revenue geography ahead of potential FDA regulatory challenges to compounding operations. Visa's acquisition of Argentine payment platforms Prisma and Newpay signals the card network's determination to capture emerging market payment digitization opportunities, particularly in markets like Argentina where economic instability has accelerated fintech adoption. Bain Capital's exploration of sale or IPO for portfolio company Dessert Holdings shows private equity firms seeking exits as public market windows periodically open, though timing remains challenging given valuation uncertainty. The Goldman Sachs-backed Raksul MBO seeing an 11% price increase after investor pushback demonstrates that target company shareholders are exercising pricing power and resisting lowball offers—a sign that private market valuations haven't completely collapsed despite public market volatility. Glencore's near-$4 billion sale of its Kazzinc zinc and gold mining stake to Kazakh businessman represents resource nationalism trend where local buyers acquire assets in their home countries, often at attractive prices.
• Implication: Strategic M&A remains active; cross-border deals accelerating; private equity seeking exits but facing shareholder resistance; valuations holding up better than feared; sector consolidation continuing.

Market Implications

The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot revealed in Wednesday's meeting minutes creates the most significant near-term headwind for risk assets, as policymakers signal that rate cuts remain distant and conditional on further disinflationary progress. Markets had grown comfortable pricing in mid-2026 rate cuts, but the minutes' language suggests the Fed sees persistent inflation risks—particularly in services sector—that require continued restrictive policy. This reassessment forces equity valuation compression, especially for growth stocks whose discounted cash flow models are most sensitive to risk-free rate assumptions. The dollar's strength following the hawkish minutes creates additional pressure on multinational earnings and commodities priced in greenbacks. However, the Fed's caution also reflects economic resilience rather than imminent recession risk, which supports earnings stability even as multiples compress.

Blue Owl Capital's redemption suspension marks a watershed moment for the private equity industry's retail distribution strategy, exposing fundamental liquidity mismatches in offering daily or monthly redemptions on illiquid assets. The incident raises contagion risk across the interval fund and non-traded REIT universe as retail investors reassess the true liquidity of alternative investments they were sold as portfolio diversifiers. If redemption gates proliferate, forced asset sales could depress private market valuations and create feedback loops where falling values trigger more redemption requests. Institutional investors may reconsider private equity allocations if exit flexibility proves more constrained than marketed, while regulators will likely scrutinize retail distribution of illiquid strategies. The stress comes at an unfortunate time for private equity firms seeking to raise new funds amid "denominator effect" headwinds.

Retail sector earnings bifurcation—with convenience services (DoorDash) surging while discretionary categories (Etsy) struggle and mass merchants (Walmart) turn cautious—reveals a consumer who remains employed and willing to spend but increasingly selective about priorities. The pattern suggests late-cycle consumer behavior: maintaining lifestyle convenience and time-saving services while cutting discretionary purchases and seeking value. Walmart's conservative guidance from new CEO Furner carries particular weight given the retailer's unmatched visibility into broad consumer behavior; management's caution about fiscal 2027 suggests concerns about tariff impacts, wage inflation, and potential consumption moderation. The divergence creates winners (delivery platforms, value retailers, off-price) and losers (discretionary goods, premium brands, niche e-commerce) with margin pressure intensifying across categories.

OpenAI's $100+ billion funding round demonstrates that AI investment remains in early innings despite recent market volatility, with sophisticated investors committing massive capital based on conviction that artificial intelligence will transform every sector of the economy. The valuation—comparable to established tech giants—reflects both the technology's potential and the capital intensity required to compete in frontier model development. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro release and partnership with Sea Ltd show AI competition accelerating across both model development and vertical applications, creating opportunities throughout the technology stack from semiconductors (NVIDIA, AMD) to cloud infrastructure (hyperscalers) to enterprise software (embedding AI features). Wolfe Research's characterization of recent rotation as "reset not reversal" captures the market's maturing view that some consolidation is healthy after explosive gains, but the fundamental investment thesis remains intact.

New York's robotaxi reversal highlights that autonomous vehicle commercialization faces regulatory and political headwinds that could extend deployment timelines significantly beyond optimistic industry projections. Labor union concerns about driver displacement, public anxiety about safety despite strong pilot performance data, and liability questions create powerful political opposition that governors must navigate. The patchwork regulatory environment—with some jurisdictions embracing AVs while others block deployment—complicates national scaling and increases capital requirements as companies must maintain expensive pilots longer before reaching revenue-generating scale. Companies like Waymo (Alphabet), Cruise (GM), and Tesla face extended cash burn periods and uncertain return timelines, though first-movers with regulatory approvals may eventually build formidable competitive moats.

Vlad's Key Takeaways (EverHint)

• Fed stays hawkish: Meeting minutes reveal diminished rate cut urgency as policymakers cite persistent inflation; rate cut timeline pushed deeper into 2026, pressuring growth stock valuations
• Walmart turns cautious: New CEO's conservative fiscal 2027 guidance despite solid Q4 signals retail headwinds ahead; consumer resilience questioned by America's largest retailer
• Blue Owl halts redemptions: Private equity firm suspends withdrawals after selling $1.4B in assets; raises systemic liquidity concerns across alternative investment industry
• DoorDash soars 11%: Food delivery leader's strong growth forecast demonstrates consumer prioritization of convenience services over discretionary goods
• Deere raises outlook: Farm equipment maker's increased profit forecast signals stabilizing agricultural economy after multi-year downturn
• Airbus tumbles 6%: Weak 2026 delivery guidance amid Pratt & Whitney engine shortages overshadows Q4 beat; aerospace supply chains remain severely constrained
• eBay guides upbeat: E-commerce marketplace forecasts above-estimate revenue and acquires Depop fashion platform for younger demographic reach
• Carvana slides 8%: Used car retailer's rising reconditioning costs erode margins; threatens business model sustainability if inflation persists
• OpenAI funding tops $100B: AI leader nears massive valuation milestone, demonstrating investor conviction despite tech volatility
• Google launches Gemini 3.1 Pro: Enhanced reasoning capabilities intensify competition with OpenAI's GPT-4 for enterprise AI market
• NY blocks robotaxi expansion: Governor Hochul pulls commercial AV proposal, dealing blow to Waymo; regulatory headwinds extend commercialization timeline
• Hims & Hers acquires Eucalyptus: $1.15B Australia telehealth deal expands GLP-1 weight loss services internationally despite FDA scrutiny
• EPAM guidance disappoints: IT services provider's cautious outlook reflects enterprise software spending uncertainty and project delays
• West Virginia sues Apple: State targets iCloud over alleged child abuse material distribution; encryption and moderation practices under legal challenge
• Visa expands in Argentina: Card network acquires Prisma and Newpay payment platforms to capture emerging market digitization opportunity

Sharing

📊 If you found this useful, a quick like, share, or subscribe keeps EverHint moving forward.

Independent, data-driven signals.
No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Market conditions change rapidly.
Do your own due diligence.
See https://www.everhint.com/disclaimer/ and https://www.everhint.com/faqs/