EverHint – Volatility Squeeze Breakout – Top 1 Buy and Top 1 Sell Signals for Mar 26, 2026
What This Signal Is (Quick)
This strategy detects volatility compression breakouts — stocks where Bollinger Bands have squeezed to historically narrow levels, then price breaks out with volume confirmation:
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Buy Signal (VOL_SQUEEZE_BREAKOUT_LONG): Price breaks above upper Bollinger Band after a squeeze
- Bollinger Band width in the lowest 20th percentile of the past 120 days
- TTM Squeeze confirmed (Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels = extreme compression)
- Volume surge confirms institutional participation (≥1.5x ADV20)
-
Sell Signal (VOL_SQUEEZE_BREAKOUT_SHORT): Price breaks below lower Bollinger Band after a squeeze
- Same compression criteria as buy signals
- Downside breakout with volume confirmation
Key Characteristics:
- Captures compression → expansion dynamics that other strategies miss
- Low correlation with trend crossover and mean reversion signals
- TTM Squeeze (BB inside KC) filters for the highest-quality compression setups
- Excludes Healthcare and Communication Services sectors (backtested underperformers)
- Backtested win rate: 54.5% with +1.74% average profit (tuned config)
Key Criteria:
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BB Width Percentile ≤ 20 (squeeze detected — lowest 20% of 120-day range)
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TTM Squeeze: Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels (extreme compression)
-
Breakout: Close above upper BB (long) or below lower BB (short)
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Volume thrust ≥ 1.5x ADV20 (volume confirmation)
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Price above SMA50 (uptrend context for longs)
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Minimum ADV: $25M (liquidity filter)
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Earnings buffer: 7 days pre/post earnings
Holding Period: 1-4 weeks
Risk Level: Medium
How We Ranked Today
Ranked by BB Width Percentile (lower = tighter squeeze = higher quality setup)
📈 Buy-Side Signals (1 Total)
Ranked by BB Width Percentile (lower = tighter squeeze = higher quality setup):
| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Last ($) | RSI14 | Est EPS | Mkt Cap ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PBA | Pembina Pipeline Corpo... | Energy | 45.69 | 67.8 | $4.01 | 26.6 |
📉 Sell-Side Signals (1 Total)
Ranked by BB Width Percentile (lower = tighter squeeze = higher quality setup):
| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Last ($) | RSI14 | Est EPS | Mkt Cap ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SIMO | Silicon Motion Technol... | Technology | 111.23 | 39.7 | $11.35 | 3.7 |
Field Notes
Sector concentration: Energy (1), Technology (1)
Data coverage: 0.0% insider, 0.0% congressional, 0.0% earnings, 100.0% analyst, 50.0% news
Peer Analysis
Understanding how these stocks relate to their industry peers:
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corporation): Leads 10 peers: IPGP ($118.70, -6.5%), DIOD ($71.00, -3.4%), ACMR ($41.19, -9.8%), AMBA ($52.67, -2.6%), ACLS ($98.35, -2.5%) | Peer of: AMBA ($52.67, -2.6%), FORM ($100.35, -7.1%), IPGP ($118.70, -6.5%) and 3 more
PBA (Pembina Pipeline Corporation): Leads 9 peers: VG ($16.82, +0.7%), CQP ($69.35, +3.2%), TS ($58.33, +2.0%), HAL ($38.79, +0.4%), DVN ($51.35, +1.9%) | Peer of: CQP ($69.35, +3.2%), CTRA ($35.79, +1.7%), CVE ($25.96, +0.1%) and 10 more
Recent Headlines
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corporation)
- Silicon Motion (SIMO) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know (source)
Market Context
Broad market indices declined today, with the S&P 500 falling 1.76%, Nasdaq dropping 2.34%, and Dow easing 1.01%, signaling a risk-off environment. The VIX surged 10.86% to 28.08, reflecting heightened investor anxiety and elevated volatility levels. For a volatility squeeze strategy, which thrives on the transition from contraction to expansion, these conditions amplify intraday swings as suppressed volatility unwinds, potentially validating the two generated signals by creating sharper price breakouts amid the broader uncertainty.
The prevailing downtrend across major indices curbs overall risk appetite, tempering aggressive long positions even as volatility spikes favor mean-reversion or breakout trades inherent to squeeze setups. Traders should prioritize signals with strong directional confirmation to navigate the choppy waters, where elevated VIX readings often exaggerate moves but increase whipsaw risk in a bearish backdrop.
Sector rotation favors Energy as the top performer, suggesting capital flows into this area possibly as a relative safe haven amid weakness elsewhere, particularly in growth-sensitive segments hit hardest by the Nasdaq's outsized decline. This dynamic supports squeeze signals in Energy, where volatility expansion could yield outsized opportunities if intraday momentum aligns with the sector's resilience.
Vlad's Take (EverHint)
Trading tips for this strategy:
- Entry timing: Enter on next-day open after breakout confirmation, or on pullback to upper BB
- Position sizing: Start with 2-3% of portfolio per signal (swing trade size)
- Stop loss: 5% below entry for longs, 5% above entry for shorts
- Take profit: Target 1 at +8%, Target 2 at +15% (based on backtest optimization)
- Time stop: Exit if no follow-through within 20 trading days (time stop)
Risk warning: Squeeze breakouts can produce false signals in choppy markets. TTM Squeeze requirement reduces but does not eliminate whipsaws. Volume confirmation is critical.
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