EverHint – Volatility Squeeze Breakout – Top 3 Buy and Top 1 Sell Signals for May 05, 2026

What This Signal Is (Quick)

This strategy detects volatility compression breakouts — stocks where Bollinger Bands have squeezed to historically narrow levels, then price breaks out with volume confirmation:

• Buy Signal (VOL_SQUEEZE_BREAKOUT_LONG): Price breaks above upper Bollinger Band after a squeeze

  • Bollinger Band width in the lowest 20th percentile of the past 120 days
  • TTM Squeeze confirmed (Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels = extreme compression)
  • Volume surge confirms institutional participation (≥1.5x ADV20)

• Sell Signal (VOL_SQUEEZE_BREAKOUT_SHORT): Price breaks below lower Bollinger Band after a squeeze

  • Same compression criteria as buy signals
  • Downside breakout with volume confirmation

Key Characteristics:

• Captures compression → expansion dynamics that other strategies miss
• Low correlation with trend crossover and mean reversion signals
• TTM Squeeze (BB inside KC) filters for the highest-quality compression setups
• Excludes Healthcare and Communication Services sectors (backtested underperformers)
• Backtested win rate: 54.5% with +1.74% average profit (tuned config)

Key Criteria:

• BB Width Percentile ≤ 20 (squeeze detected — lowest 20% of 120-day range)

• TTM Squeeze: Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels (extreme compression)

• Breakout: Close above upper BB (long) or below lower BB (short)

• Volume thrust ≥ 1.5x ADV20 (volume confirmation)

• Price above SMA50 (uptrend context for longs)

• Minimum ADV: $25M (liquidity filter)

• Earnings buffer: 7 days pre/post earnings

Holding Period: 1-4 weeks
Risk Level: Medium

How We Ranked Today

Ranked by BB Width Percentile (lower = tighter squeeze = higher quality setup)

📈 Buy-Side Signals (3 Total)

Ranked by BB Width Percentile (lower = tighter squeeze = higher quality setup):

📉 Sell-Side Signals (1 Total)

Ranked by BB Width Percentile (lower = tighter squeeze = higher quality setup):

Field Notes

Sector concentration: Technology (1), Consumer Defensive (1), Consumer Cyclical (1)

Data coverage: 0.0% insider, 25.0% congressional (1 older/1y), 0.0% earnings, 100.0% analyst, 0.0% news

Peer Analysis

Understanding how these stocks relate to their industry peers:

CGNX (Cognex Corporation): Leads 10 peers: TTMI ($159.58, +1.3%), SANM ($221.89, +2.5%), LFUS ($422.80, -0.3%), ESE ($339.35, +3.5%), NOVT ($132.29, +4.9%) | Peer of: ESE ($339.35, +3.5%), LFUS ($422.80, -0.3%), OLED ($98.45, +2.0%) and 2 more

GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Company): Leads 9 peers: SLGN ($39.45, +0.4%), SON ($50.48, +1.7%), REYN ($21.29, +2.9%), MTH ($64.12, +1.7%), ABG ($198.50, +2.7%) | Peer of: ABG ($198.50, +2.7%), ALH ($25.60, +0.0%), CROX ($102.94, +1.4%) and 8 more

MATX (Matson, Inc.): Leads 9 peers: HAFN ($9.46, +5.0%), SEB ($5687.09, +1.8%), SB ($7.11, +6.0%), AZZ ($144.08, +2.0%), PLUG ($3.32, +6.1%) | Peer of: AIR ($111.90, +2.1%), AZZ ($144.08, +2.0%), HAFN ($9.46, +5.0%) and 4 more

FRPT (Freshpet, Inc.): Leads 9 peers: FLO ($8.64, +3.5%), SMPL ($12.78, -1.4%), CHA ($10.88, -2.2%), CHEF ($79.03, +1.3%), IPAR ($91.70, +2.2%) | Peer of: CHEF ($79.03, +1.3%), FLO ($8.64, +3.5%), IPAR ($91.70, +2.2%) and 2 more

Congressional Activity

FRPT (Freshpet, Inc.) 🟢 Bullish (1y)

• 1 purchase by 1 member
• Top buyer: Sen. Markwayne Mullin (OK) - 1 transaction ($1,001 - $15,000)

Market Context

Broad market indices are advancing, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all posting gains between 0.73% and 1.03%, signaling a risk-on environment. The VIX's sharp 4.70% decline to 17.43 reflects contracting volatility and diminished investor fear, creating favorable conditions for volatility squeeze strategies. These setups thrive in low-volatility periods that often precede explosive intraday swings, as compressed price action in the current backdrop could unwind into directional breakouts.

The prevailing upward trend across major indices supports positive risk appetite, enhancing the potential for squeeze signals to capture momentum. With volatility levels moderate and trending lower, intraday swings may initially appear subdued but carry heightened breakout risk, particularly as traders position for continuations in this bullish tape. This dynamic reduces false signals, allowing strategies to capitalize on volatility expansion amid sustained buying pressure.

Technology's leadership as the top sector underscores rotation toward growth-oriented areas, amplifying squeeze opportunities in high-beta names. In a low-VIX, trending market, such rotation bolsters signal conviction, as capital flows favor sectors poised for volatility release, potentially magnifying returns on the four active signals.

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Trading tips for this strategy:

• Entry timing: Enter on next-day open after breakout confirmation, or on pullback to upper BB
• Position sizing: Start with 2-3% of portfolio per signal (swing trade size)
• Stop loss: 5% below entry for longs, 5% above entry for shorts
• Take profit: Target 1 at +8%, Target 2 at +15% (based on backtest optimization)
• Time stop: Exit if no follow-through within 20 trading days (time stop)

Risk warning: Squeeze breakouts can produce false signals in choppy markets. TTM Squeeze requirement reduces but does not eliminate whipsaws. Volume confirmation is critical.

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