EverHint — Markets, Indexes, Commodities, Currencies & Mortgage Rates in a Nutshell - October 8, 2025, Mid-Day (PDT)
Market Overview
- Rates: Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve (bull-flattening lite, long end up less). The 10-year is ~4.142% (+1.3 bp), 30-year ~4.727% (+0.3 bp).
- Dollar: EUR/USD 1.1556 (−0.66%). USD firmed versus euro.
- Havens / Risk: Gold futures ~$4,029 (−1.0%) after testing above $4k; Bitcoin ~$121.3k (−1.7%).
- Macro tape (last 2–6h): Gold holding near $4k; natural gas storage beat; US consumer goods prices up in Sep; NY Fed’s Williams signaled support for more cuts this year.
U.S. Treasuries (snapshot)
| Tenor | Yield | Δ (bp) | Session range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-Week Bill | 3.848% | +0.5 | 3.84 – 3.85 |
| 5-Year | 3.736% | +1.6 | 3.724 – 3.745 |
| 10-Year | 4.142% | +1.3 | 4.127 – 4.152 |
| 30-Year | 4.727% | +0.3 | 4.711 – 4.740 |
Read: Mild upward drift in yields; the curve movement is small and not signaling stress.
Currencies (majors)
| Pair | Last | Δ % | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1556 | −0.66% | USD firmer vs. euro on rate differentials |
Commodities & Crypto
| Contract | Last | Δ % | Session range | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Futures (GC) | 4,029.6 | −1.00% | 4,018 – 4,078 | Pullback after >$4k test; still elevated |
| 10-Yr T-Note Futures (ZN) | 112.516 | −0.08% | 112.44 – 112.77 | Mirrors small rise in 10Y yields |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 121,258 | −1.69% | 120,914 – 123,614 | Risk tone softer vs. yesterday’s pop |
Mortgage Rates — Mortgage News Daily (today)
| Product | Current | 1-Day | 1-Week | 1-Month | 1-Year | 52-wk Low / High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed | 6.36% | −0.02% | −0.01% | +0.08% | −0.26% | 6.13% / 7.26% |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 5.87% | −0.03% | −0.01% | +0.22% | −0.28% | 5.60% / 6.59% |
| 30-Yr FHA | 6.05% | −0.03% | +0.00% | +0.11% | −0.07% | 5.91% / 6.62% |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.28% | −0.01% | +0.01% | +0.03% | −0.47% | 6.14% / 7.45% |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.83% | −0.02% | +0.05% | +0.21% | −0.74% | 5.59% / 7.25% |
| 30-Yr VA | 6.08% | −0.02% | +0.02% | +0.13% | −0.07% | 5.92% / 6.64% |
Read: Rates remain well below 52-week highs and eased slightly day-over-day — a quiet tailwind for purchase affordability.
Economic Indicators — Headlines (last ~6 hours)
- Gold holds above $4,000; silver breaks higher (commodities bid, then faded).
- U.S. natural gas storage beat points to comfortable inventories into shoulder season.
- U.S. consumer goods prices rose in September, nudging inflation watchers.
- Fed’s Williams: supports additional rate cuts this year (dovish tone).
Vlad’s Take
- Tone: Cautiously neutral. A firmer USD and small uptick in yields cooled metals and crypto intraday, but nothing disorderly.
- Housing: Mortgage rates continue to inch lower vs. last month’s peak, incrementally supportive for builders and transaction volumes.
- Setup into close: Watch gold’s $4k line (psych level), EUR/USD for USD follow-through, and 10Y ~4.15% as a near-term pivot for equity risk appetite.
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