Mortgage Rates — January 07, 2026 — Minimal Movement Near 52-Week Lows

Summary

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.20% as of January 07, 2026, edging up a minimal +0.01% from the previous day while remaining flat on a weekly basis. This benchmark rate sits just 7 basis points above its 52-week low of 6.13%, maintaining its position in the most favorable affordability zone of the past year. Year-over-year, rates have declined significantly by -0.90%, providing substantial relief to homebuyers and refinancers compared to the elevated levels seen in early 2025.

Current Mortgage Rates Table

Rate Movement Analysis

Daily Movement: Mixed but Minimal

Daily changes on January 07, 2026 were minimal across all products, with most movements under 2 basis points. The 30-year fixed inched up +0.01%, while the 15-year fixed and ARM held steady at +0.00%. Government-backed products showed slight divergence: the 30-year VA dipped -0.01%, matching the 30-year Jumbo, while FHA remained unchanged.

These minimal fluctuations indicate market stability and lack of significant news-driven volatility. The modest uptick in the benchmark 30-year rate doesn't materially impact affordability or borrowing costs.

Weekly Trend: Stability Dominates

Over the past week, rates have remained remarkably stable. The 30-year fixed is flat at +0.00%, as are most products. The 30-year Jumbo showed the most movement, declining -0.02%, while the ARM edged up +0.02%. This narrow trading range—with no product moving more than 2 basis points—reflects a market in equilibrium, awaiting fresh economic data or Federal Reserve guidance.

Monthly and Yearly Trajectory: Consistent Improvement

Monthly changes reveal modest declines across the board. The 30-year fixed is down -0.07%, while the ARM and 30-year fixed both dropped -0.07%, the strongest monthly improvements. Government-backed products (FHA and VA) declined -0.04%, and the Jumbo fell -0.05%.

Year-over-year, the improvements are substantial:

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: -1.28% (strongest YoY decline)
• 30 Yr. Jumbo: -1.00%
• 30 Yr. Fixed: -0.90%
• 15 Yr. Fixed: -0.76%
• 30 Yr. VA: -0.59%
• 30 Yr. FHA: -0.58%

These declines represent a significant affordability improvement compared to January 2025. For a $400,000 loan, the 90-basis-point drop in the 30-year fixed translates to approximately $220/month in savings—a meaningful boost to purchasing power.

Product Spread Analysis

30-Year vs. 15-Year Spread: 0.46%

The spread between the 30-year fixed (6.20%) and 15-year fixed (5.74%) stands at 46 basis points, within the normal range of 40-60 basis points. This typical spread indicates no unusual risk premium in the yield curve.

For buyers: The 15-year option offers meaningful savings but requires higher monthly payments. For those prioritizing long-term interest savings and able to afford the increased payment, the 15-year product remains attractive.

Conventional vs. Government-Backed: 30-35 bps Advantage

Government-backed products offer competitive rates:

• 30 Yr. FHA (5.85%) is 35 basis points below conventional (6.20%)
• 30 Yr. VA (5.86%) is 34 basis points below conventional

These spreads are favorable for eligible borrowers, especially first-time buyers using FHA or veterans using VA loans. The savings on a $400,000 loan amount to roughly $80-85/month compared to conventional financing.

ARM vs. Fixed: 0.46% Spread

The 7/6 SOFR ARM (5.74%) matches the 15-year fixed rate and sits 46 basis points below the 30-year fixed. This moderate spread makes ARMs appealing for buyers planning to sell or refinance within 5-7 years. However, the relatively narrow gap reduces the risk-reward advantage compared to periods when ARM discounts exceeded 75-100 basis points.

Jumbo Premium: 0.15%

The 30-year Jumbo (6.35%) carries a 15 basis point premium over conventional 30-year fixed rates. This is at the low end of the normal 15-30 basis point range, indicating healthy liquidity in the jumbo market. High-balance borrowers face minimal penalty compared to conforming loan rates, a positive sign for the luxury and high-cost housing segments.

52-Week Range Context

All mortgage products are positioned exceptionally favorably within their 52-week ranges, signaling near-optimal affordability conditions:

30-Year Fixed: 6% of Range (🟢)

At 6.20%, the 30-year fixed sits just 7 basis points above its 52-week low of 6.13%, representing approximately 6% of the total 52-week range (6.13% - 7.26%). This places rates near the most favorable levels of the past year, offering strong opportunities for buyers and refinancers.

15-Year Fixed: 14% of Range (🟢)

The 15-year fixed at 5.74% is 14 basis points above its low of 5.60%, or 14% of its 52-week range. Still firmly in the "near low" category, this product remains attractive for those seeking accelerated equity building.

30-Year FHA: 4% of Range (🟢)

FHA rates at 5.85% are just 3 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.82%, representing only 4% of the range. This is virtually at the bottom, maximizing affordability for first-time buyers and those with lower down payments.

30-Year Jumbo: 19% of Range (🟢)

Jumbo rates at 6.35% sit 25 basis points above the low of 6.10%, placing them at 19% of the 52-week range. While slightly higher than other products, this remains in the favorable zone and indicates strong conditions for high-balance borrowers.

7/6 SOFR ARM: 9% of Range (🟢)

The ARM at 5.74% is 15 basis points above its low of 5.59%, or 9% of its range. This product has benefited significantly from Federal Reserve rate cuts, offering near-optimal initial rates for those comfortable with future rate adjustments.

30-Year VA: 1% of Range (🟢)

VA rates at 5.86% are just 1 basis point above the 52-week low of 5.85%, representing only 1% of the range. This is effectively at the floor, providing exceptional value to eligible veterans.

Takeaway: Across the board, rates are hovering near annual lows, creating a favorable environment for home purchases and refinances. Current conditions are near-optimal from an affordability standpoint.

Year-over-Year Comparison

Compared to January 2025, mortgage affordability has improved significantly:

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: -1.28% (strongest improvement)
• 30 Yr. Jumbo: -1.00%
• 30 Yr. Fixed: -0.90%
• 15 Yr. Fixed: -0.76%
• 30 Yr. VA: -0.59%
• 30 Yr. FHA: -0.58%

Affordability Impact

These declines translate to substantial monthly payment savings:

• $400,000 loan (30-year fixed): ~$220/month savings vs. one year ago
• $600,000 jumbo loan: ~$375/month savings vs. one year ago
• $300,000 FHA loan: ~$105/month savings vs. one year ago

The ARM product shows the strongest YoY decline at -1.28%, reflecting its sensitivity to short-term rate expectations and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. Jumbo loans, often more sensitive to market liquidity, have also seen exceptional improvement at -1.00%.

These improvements have reopened affordability for many buyers priced out during the 7%+ rate environment of 2023-2024 and have created refinancing opportunities for those locked into higher rates.

Market Context

Rate Environment: Moderate and Stable

At 6.20%, the 30-year fixed rate sits in the 6.00%-6.50% range, a moderate level by historical standards. This is:

• Well below the 7%+ peaks of 2023-2024
• Above the sub-3% pandemic-era lows
• In line with pre-2020 norms

This moderate rate environment supports steady housing demand without the risk of overheating. Buyers face predictable borrowing costs, while sellers benefit from consistent buyer interest. Refinancing activity has picked up for borrowers with rates above 7%, though those in the 5-6% range have limited incentive to refinance.

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook

The significant year-over-year rate declines, particularly in ARMs (-1.28%), signal market expectations that the Federal Reserve has successfully transitioned to an easing cycle. The ARM's steep decline reflects anticipation of further short-term rate cuts or maintenance of lower policy rates.

Current rate stability suggests the market has largely priced in:

• Moderating inflation
• Slower economic growth
• Fed pause or cautious easing ahead

The minimal daily and weekly volatility indicates low uncertainty about near-term Fed policy. Investors appear comfortable with the current trajectory, reducing the likelihood of sharp rate swings in the immediate future.

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed at 6.20%: Up +0.01% daily but flat weekly, showing minimal volatility
• Near annual lows: Just 7 bps above 52-week low of 6.13% (6% of range) (🟢)
• Significant YoY improvement: Down -0.90% from a year ago, saving ~$220/month on a $400K loan
• ARMs lead YoY declines: 7/6 SOFR ARM down -1.28%, strongest improvement across all products
• Jumbo market strength: -1.00% YoY decline with only 15 bps premium over conventional
• Normal spreads: 30 vs 15-year at 0.46% within typical 0.40-0.60% range
• Government-backed advantage: FHA/VA offer 30-35 bps savings over conventional (🟢)
• All products near lows: Every product sits in the 1-19% range position, highly favorable (🟢)
• Moderate environment: 6.20% rate supports steady housing demand without overheating
• Refinancing opportunity: Borrowers above 7% can achieve meaningful savings at current levels
• Stable outlook: Minimal daily/weekly volatility suggests market confidence in Fed policy path

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This is not financial advice. Mortgage rates change frequently and vary by lender, borrower credit, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors. Always consult with qualified mortgage professionals.
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