Mortgage Rates — January 08, 2026 — Edge Lower Toward 52-Week Lows
Summary
The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.19% as of January 08, 2026, edging down by 1 basis point (-0.01%) from the previous day. Rates have declined modestly over the past week (-0.01%) and month (-0.08%), maintaining a favorable position just 6 basis points above the 52-week low of 6.13%. Year-over-year, rates show substantial improvement with the 30-year fixed down -0.95%, reflecting improved affordability conditions compared to early 2025.
Current Mortgage Rates Table
| Product | Current | 1-Day | 1-Week | 1-Month | 1-Year | 52W Range | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.19% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.95% | 6.13% - 7.26% | Near Low 🟢 |
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 5.73% | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.77% | 5.60% - 6.59% | Near Low 🟢 |
| 30 Yr. FHA | 5.80% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.70% | 5.80% - 6.59% | At Low 🟢 |
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 6.35% | +0.00% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -1.02% | 6.10% - 7.45% | Near Low 🟢 |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.70% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -1.33% | 5.59% - 7.25% | Near Low 🟢 |
| 30 Yr. VA | 5.82% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.68% | 5.82% - 6.60% | At Low 🟢 |
Rate Movement Analysis
Daily Changes: Mortgage rates showed minimal downward movement on January 08, with most products declining by 1 to 5 basis points. The 30-year FHA and VA products led declines with -0.05% and -0.04% moves respectively, while the benchmark 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed each dipped by -0.01%. The 7/6 SOFR ARM fell -0.04%, and the 30-year Jumbo held steady at +0.00%. The modest declines suggest stable market conditions with a slight bias toward easing.
Weekly Trend: Over the past week, rates have shown consistent but minimal downward pressure. The 30-year fixed declined just -0.01%, while government-backed products (FHA at -0.05%, VA at -0.05%) and the 15-year fixed (-0.03%) posted slightly larger improvements. The ARM product fell -0.03%, and Jumbo rates declined -0.02%. The week reflects a continuation of the stable-to-lower trajectory seen throughout late 2025 and early 2026.
Monthly Perspective: The past month shows a modest easing trend across all products. The 7/6 SOFR ARM leads monthly declines at -0.11%, reflecting Fed rate cut expectations embedded in short-term rates. Conventional and government-backed 30-year products declined between -0.05% and -0.09%, representing moderate improvements. The 15-year fixed showed the smallest monthly move at -0.03%. Overall, the monthly trajectory indicates gradual improvement without dramatic swings.
Year-over-Year Comparison: Looking back one year, all mortgage products show significant improvement in affordability. The 7/6 SOFR ARM leads with a stunning -1.33% decline, followed by the 30-year Jumbo at -1.02% and the benchmark 30-year fixed at -0.95%. Government-backed products (FHA -0.70%, VA -0.68%) and the 15-year fixed (-0.77%) also posted substantial year-over-year gains. These improvements represent a meaningful shift from the more restrictive rate environment of early 2025, when the 30-year fixed approached 7.3%.
Product Spread Analysis
30-Year vs. 15-Year Spread: The spread between the 30-year fixed (6.19%) and 15-year fixed (5.73%) stands at 0.46% (46 basis points), sitting comfortably within the typical range of 0.40-0.60%. This normal spread indicates balanced demand across loan terms. For borrowers able to afford higher monthly payments, the 15-year fixed offers meaningful interest savings over the life of the loan while building equity faster.
Conventional vs. Government-Backed: Government-backed products offer notable advantages over conventional 30-year fixed rates. The FHA program provides a 39 basis point savings (5.80% vs. 6.19%), while VA loans offer a 37 basis point advantage (5.82% vs. 6.19%). Both FHA and VA products are currently at their 52-week lows, making them particularly attractive for eligible borrowers. The FHA rate at 5.80% matches its annual low, while the VA rate at 5.82% also sits at its floor.
ARM vs. Fixed Spread: The 7/6 SOFR ARM at 5.70% trades 49 basis points below the 30-year fixed rate (6.19%), offering a meaningful initial rate advantage. This spread is moderately attractive for borrowers comfortable with eventual rate adjustments. The ARM's position just 11 basis points above its 52-week low of 5.59% indicates favorable entry pricing. The product's strong -1.33% year-over-year decline reflects market expectations for Fed policy and near-term rate stability.
Jumbo Premium: The 30-year Jumbo rate of 6.35% trades at a 16 basis point premium over the conventional 30-year fixed (6.19%). This compressed spread sits at the low end of the normal 15-30 basis point range, indicating healthy competition for high-balance loans. Jumbo borrowers benefit from favorable pricing conditions, with rates 25 basis points above the 52-week low but still well below the 7.45% peak.
52-Week Range Context
30-Year Fixed: At 6.19%, the benchmark rate sits just 6 basis points (0.06%) above its 52-week low of 6.13%, representing approximately 5.3% of the total 52-week range. This positions the 30-year fixed in highly favorable territory 🟢, with rates 1.07% below the 52-week high of 7.26%. Borrowers shopping for homes or considering refinancing are encountering some of the best rate conditions seen in the past year.
15-Year Fixed: The 15-year product at 5.73% sits 13 basis points above its 52-week low of 5.60%, representing 13.1% of the 52-week range 🟢. While not quite as close to its floor as the 30-year fixed, the 15-year remains in favorable territory, trading 86 basis points below its 52-week high of 6.59%.
30-Year FHA: The FHA rate has reached its 52-week low at 5.80%, matching the bottom of its annual range 🟢. This represents 0% of the 52-week range (5.80% - 6.59%), placing FHA borrowers in optimal conditions. The rate sits 79 basis points below its peak, offering maximum affordability for government-backed financing.
30-Year VA: Similarly, the VA rate at 5.82% has also reached its 52-week low 🟢, matching the floor at 5.82% and representing 0% of the 52-week range (5.82% - 6.60%). Veterans and active military personnel benefit from the most favorable rate conditions of the past year, with rates 78 basis points below the annual high.
30-Year Jumbo: The Jumbo rate at 6.35% sits 25 basis points above its 52-week low of 6.10%, representing 18.5% of the 52-week range 🟢. While not at absolute lows, Jumbo borrowers are still encountering favorable conditions, with rates 1.10% below the 52-week high of 7.45%.
7/6 SOFR ARM: The ARM product at 5.70% trades just 11 basis points above its 52-week low of 5.59%, representing 6.6% of the 52-week range 🟢. This near-low positioning reflects expectations for continued Fed policy support and stable near-term rates. The ARM sits 1.55% below its 52-week high of 7.25%.
Year-over-Year Comparison
Comparing January 08, 2026 rates to one year prior reveals substantial improvement across all mortgage products:
Strongest YoY Improvements:
- 7/6 SOFR ARM: -1.33% (from ~7.03% to 5.70%)
- 30-Year Jumbo: -1.02% (from ~7.37% to 6.35%)
- 30-Year Fixed: -0.95% (from ~7.14% to 6.19%)
Moderate YoY Improvements:
- 15-Year Fixed: -0.77% (from ~6.50% to 5.73%)
- 30-Year FHA: -0.70% (from ~6.50% to 5.80%)
- 30-Year VA: -0.68% (from ~6.50% to 5.82%)
The ARM product's outsized improvement reflects how short-term rates respond more directly to Fed policy changes. The Fed's rate cuts in 2025 flowed through to adjustable-rate products more aggressively than longer-term fixed rates. Jumbo products also benefited from improved credit market conditions and reduced risk premiums.
Affordability Impact: These year-over-year improvements represent meaningful affordability gains for homebuyers. On a $400,000 mortgage, the 30-year fixed rate declining from 7.14% to 6.19% reduces monthly principal and interest payments by approximately $230, or $2,760 annually. Over the life of the loan, this rate improvement saves borrowers tens of thousands in interest costs.
Market Context
Rate Environment: The current 30-year fixed rate of 6.19% places the market in a moderate rate environment (6.0% - 6.5% range). This level is neither restrictive enough to freeze housing activity nor low enough to trigger a refinancing boom or overheated demand. The sub-6.5% environment supports steady housing market activity, with qualified buyers able to access financing at levels last seen before the Fed's aggressive 2022-2023 rate hiking cycle.
Housing Demand Implications: Rates in the low 6% range provide predictability for homebuyers while maintaining discipline in the market. Demand remains steady without the frothy conditions seen during the ultra-low rate period of 2020-2021. First-time buyers benefit from FHA and VA rates below 5.85%, improving entry-level affordability. Move-up buyers and investors face more manageable financing costs compared to the 7%+ rates seen in 2023.
Refinancing Opportunity: Borrowers with existing mortgages above 7% have clear refinancing opportunities at current rate levels. However, those who locked rates in the 5-6% range during 2020-2021 still lack compelling refinancing incentives. The "refinancing cohort" primarily consists of borrowers who purchased or refinanced during the 2022-2023 rate spike. For these borrowers, current rates offer meaningful savings opportunities.
Fed Policy Connection: Mortgage rate stability in early 2026 reflects market confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate policy trajectory. The central bank's rate cuts in 2025 worked through the system, bringing mortgage rates down from their 7%+ peaks. Current rate levels suggest markets anticipate stable Fed policy in 2026, with expectations for neither aggressive further cuts nor rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rates, has stabilized as inflation concerns moderated and economic growth remained steady.
Inflation and Economic Outlook: The easing of mortgage rates aligns with improved inflation data through late 2025. Core PCE inflation moving closer to the Fed's 2% target allowed policymakers to shift from restrictive to neutral policy. Economic growth has remained resilient without overheating, supporting the Fed's ability to maintain lower rates. Labor market data showing normalized job gains and stable unemployment supports a balanced economic backdrop conducive to steady mortgage rates.
Key Takeaways
- 30-year fixed at 6.19%: Down -0.01% daily, continuing gradual easing trend
- Near 52-week lows: Just 6 bps above annual low of 6.13% (5.3% of range) 🟢
- Substantial YoY improvement: Down -0.95% from a year ago, materially improving affordability
- Government-backed at lows: FHA (5.80%) and VA (5.82%) both at 52-week lows 🟢
- ARMs lead YoY declines: 7/6 SOFR ARM down -1.33% YoY, strongest improvement reflecting Fed cuts
- Normal spreads maintained: 30 vs 15-year at 0.46% within typical 0.40-0.60% range
- Jumbo pricing compressed: 16 bps premium over conventional at low end of normal range
- All products favorable: Every rate sits in the lower 25% of its 52-week range 🟢
- Moderate environment: 6.19% benchmark supports steady demand without overheating
- Refinancing window open: Borrowers above 7% can achieve meaningful savings
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