Mortgage Rates — January 12, 2026 — Hit 52-Week Lows

Summary

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.01% on January 12, 2026, matching its 52-week low and marking a significant milestone for housing affordability. The benchmark rate dropped -0.05% (5 basis points) daily, -0.18% weekly, and -0.31% monthly, while posting a substantial -1.23% year-over-year improvement. The 15-year fixed also reached its 52-week low at 5.55%, and all mortgage products now sit at or near their most favorable levels of the past year, creating an optimal environment for both homebuyers and refinancers.

Current Mortgage Rates Table

Rate Movement Analysis

Daily Movement: Significant Declines Across Fixed-Rate Products

The 30-year fixed rate posted a significant -0.05% (5 basis points) daily decline, falling to match its 52-week low of 6.01%. The 15-year fixed also showed a significant -0.04% drop to reach its annual low at 5.55%. The 7/6 SOFR ARM declined -0.04%, while the 30-year jumbo saw a minimal -0.01% decrease.

Government-backed products showed mixed minimal movements with FHA and VA rates each edging up just +0.01% (1 basis point), remaining within normal daily volatility. Despite these tiny upticks, FHA and VA rates remain within 1% of their 52-week lows.

Market Interpretation: The coordinated decline in conventional fixed-rate products suggests bond market improvement, likely driven by inflation data or Fed policy expectations. The 5-basis-point drop in the benchmark 30-year rate represents meaningful daily movement that signals shifting market sentiment toward lower rates.

Weekly Trend: Broad-Based Significant Declines

Over the past week, all six mortgage products declined, with five showing significant movements:

• 30 Yr. Fixed: -0.18% (18 bps) - significant
• 15 Yr. Fixed: -0.19% (19 bps) - significant
• 30 Yr. FHA: -0.15% (15 bps) - significant
• 30 Yr. VA: -0.16% (16 bps) - significant
• 7/6 SOFR ARM: -0.06% (6 bps) - moderate
• 30 Yr. Jumbo: -0.02% (2 bps) - minimal

Weekly Assessment: The consistency and magnitude of weekly declines across conventional, government-backed, and fixed-rate products demonstrate a sustained downward rate trajectory. The 18-19 basis point drops in 30-year and 15-year products represent the most significant weekly improvements, while the ARM's smaller decline reflects its already-compressed level near its 52-week low.

Monthly & Yearly: Substantial Long-Term Improvements

Monthly Changes (all negative):

• 30-year products down -0.20% to -0.31% (20-31 bps) - significant improvements
• 15-year down -0.22% (22 bps) - significant
• ARM down -0.33% (33 bps) - significant
• Jumbo down -0.09% (9 bps) - minimal

Year-Over-Year Changes (massive declines):

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: -1.42% - strongest YoY improvement
• 30 Yr. Fixed: -1.23% - excellent affordability gain
• 30 Yr. Jumbo: -1.08% - strong improvement
• 15 Yr. Fixed: -0.98% - near 100 bps improvement
• 30 Yr. FHA/VA: -0.85% to -0.86% - substantial

Context for Borrowers: The year-over-year declines exceeding 100 basis points (1.00%) represent transformational affordability improvements. A borrower who delayed purchasing or refinancing a year ago now faces rates 1.23% lower on conventional 30-year mortgages—translating to significantly lower monthly payments. The monthly declines of 20-33 basis points continue the favorable trend, with rates reaching their most advantageous levels in 12 months.

Product Spread Analysis

30-Year vs. 15-Year: Normal Spread at 0.46%

Spread: 6.01% - 5.55% = 0.46% (46 basis points)

Assessment: The spread sits comfortably within the normal 0.40-0.60% range, indicating balanced market conditions between the two products.

Borrower Interpretation: The 46-basis-point discount for 15-year mortgages reflects typical pricing. Borrowers willing to accept higher monthly payments for faster equity buildup and lower total interest can capture a meaningful rate advantage. With both products at 52-week lows, this is an optimal time to consider the 15-year option for those with sufficient cash flow.

Conventional vs. Government-Backed: 30-31 bps FHA/VA Advantage

FHA Advantage: 6.01% - 5.70% = 0.31% (31 basis points) savings
VA Advantage: 6.01% - 5.71% = 0.30% (30 basis points) savings

Assessment: FHA and VA products offer substantial ~30 basis point discounts versus conventional 30-year mortgages, providing meaningful monthly payment savings for eligible borrowers.

Borrower Interpretation: Veterans and borrowers with lower down payments who qualify for VA or FHA financing enjoy considerable rate advantages. Combined with lower down payment requirements (VA: 0%, FHA: 3.5%), these government-backed options deliver enhanced affordability for target demographics. With FHA at 5.70% and VA at 5.71%—both within 1% of their 52-week lows—eligible borrowers face exceptionally favorable conditions.

ARM vs. Fixed: 33 bps Discount for Adjustable Rate

ARM Advantage: 6.01% - 5.68% = 0.33% (33 basis points) discount

Assessment: The 7/6 SOFR ARM offers a meaningful 33-basis-point advantage over the conventional 30-year fixed, sitting at the lower end of historical ARM spreads.

Borrower Interpretation: The relatively modest ARM discount (compared to historical spreads of 50-100+ bps during high-rate environments) reflects market expectations for stable or declining rates ahead. Borrowers comfortable with rate adjustment risk after the initial 7-year fixed period can capture immediate savings. However, with 30-year fixed rates at 52-week lows, the premium for long-term rate certainty is historically low, reducing ARM appeal for risk-averse borrowers. The ARM makes most sense for buyers planning to sell or refinance within 7 years.

Jumbo Premium: Elevated at 33 bps

Jumbo Premium: 6.34% - 6.01% = 0.33% (33 basis points)

Assessment: The jumbo premium sits above the normal 0.15-0.30% range, indicating elevated pricing for high-balance loans.

Borrower Interpretation: Jumbo borrowers face a slightly elevated premium compared to historical norms, though the 6.34% absolute rate remains attractive by recent standards (down -1.08% YoY). The wider-than-normal spread suggests lenders are pricing additional risk into large-balance loans, possibly reflecting portfolio concentration concerns or capital allocation preferences. High-balance borrowers should shop aggressively across lenders, as jumbo pricing can vary significantly by institution.

52-Week Range Context

30 Yr. Fixed: AT 52-Week Low (0% of Range) 🟢

Current: 6.01% | 52W Low: 6.01% | 52W High: 7.26%

Position: The 30-year fixed rate has reached its 52-week low of 6.01%, sitting at exactly 0% of the 52-week range. This represents the single most favorable rate of the past year.

Distance from Extremes:

• From 52W Low: 0.00% (0 basis points) - AT THE LOW
• From 52W High: -1.25% (125 basis points below peak)

Affordability Interpretation: Borrowers today face the best 30-year fixed mortgage pricing available in the past 12 months. The 125-basis-point decline from the 52-week high of 7.26% delivers substantial monthly payment savings and purchasing power improvements. This milestone represents an inflection point—rates have compressed to their most favorable annual level, creating optimal conditions for home purchases and refinancing.

15 Yr. Fixed: AT 52-Week Low (0% of Range) 🟢

Current: 5.55% | 52W Low: 5.55% | 52W High: 6.59%

Position: The 15-year fixed rate matches its 52-week low at 5.55%, sitting at 0% of the range.

Distance from Extremes:

• From 52W Low: 0.00% - AT THE LOW
• From 52W High: -1.04% (104 basis points below peak)

Affordability Interpretation: The 15-year product joins the 30-year in reaching annual lows, offering borrowers seeking faster equity buildup and lower total interest costs the most favorable pricing seen in 12 months. The full 104-basis-point decline from the 52-week high creates compelling refinance opportunities for existing 15-year borrowers above 6.00%.

30 Yr. FHA: Near Low at 1% of Range 🟢

Current: 5.70% | 52W Low: 5.69% | 52W High: 6.59%

Position: Just 1 basis point above 52-week low, representing 1% of the 52-week range.

Affordability Interpretation: FHA borrowers face near-optimal conditions, with rates within a single basis point of annual lows. The 5.70% rate combined with FHA's 3.5% down payment option delivers maximum affordability for first-time and lower-down-payment buyers.

30 Yr. Jumbo: Near Low at 18% of Range 🟢

Current: 6.34% | 52W Low: 6.10% | 52W High: 7.45%

Position: 24 basis points above low, representing 18% of the 52-week range.

Affordability Interpretation: Jumbo rates sit favorably within the lower quarter of their 52-week range despite the elevated premium over conventional. High-balance borrowers benefit from rates 111 basis points below the 52-week peak of 7.45%, though 24 basis points above the absolute low suggests potential for further modest improvement.

7/6 SOFR ARM: Near Low at 5% of Range 🟢

Current: 5.68% | 52W Low: 5.59% | 52W High: 7.25%

Position: 9 basis points above low, representing 5% of the 52-week range.

Affordability Interpretation: The ARM sits extremely close to its 52-week low, with only 9 basis points of compression remaining to reach the annual minimum. The product's positioning near the bottom of its 166-basis-point range reflects both Fed rate cut execution and market expectations for additional easing.

30 Yr. VA: Near Low at 1% of Range 🟢

Current: 5.71% | 52W Low: 5.70% | 52W High: 6.60%

Position: Just 1 basis point above 52-week low, representing 1% of range.

Affordability Interpretation: Veterans face near-optimal financing conditions with VA rates virtually at annual lows. Combined with 0% down payment capability and no PMI requirement, VA loans offer exceptional value at current pricing.

Year-over-Year Comparison

Massive Affordability Improvements Across All Products

Every mortgage product shows substantial year-over-year rate declines, with improvements ranging from -0.85% to -1.42%:

Strongest YoY Improvements:

1. 7/6 SOFR ARM: -1.42% (142 basis points) - exceptional decline reflecting Fed cuts and easing expectations
2. 30 Yr. Fixed: -1.23% (123 basis points) - benchmark shows dramatic affordability gain
3. 30 Yr. Jumbo: -1.08% (108 basis points) - strong improvement despite elevated current premium

Government-Backed & Mid-Term:

• 15 Yr. Fixed: -0.98% (98 basis points) - near 100 bps improvement
• 30 Yr. VA: -0.86% (86 basis points) - substantial veteran benefit
• 30 Yr. FHA: -0.85% (85 basis points) - meaningful first-time buyer advantage

Affordability Impact Analysis

Monthly Payment Implications:

A borrower purchasing a $400,000 home with 20% down ($320,000 loan) would see these monthly principal & interest payment changes:

• 30-year fixed (7.24% → 6.01%): ~$425/month savings
• 15-year fixed (6.53% → 5.55%): ~$270/month savings
• ARM (7.10% → 5.68%): ~$380/month savings

Purchasing Power Gains:

The 123-basis-point decline in 30-year rates translates to approximately 12-14% increased purchasing power for the same monthly payment. A buyer previously qualified for a $350,000 loan at 7.24% could now afford roughly $390,000-$400,000 at 6.01% with the same monthly payment.

Refinancing Opportunity:

Homeowners with existing mortgages above 7.00% face compelling refinance economics. A borrower with a $300,000 balance at 7.00% refinancing to 6.01% would save approximately $200/month ($2,400 annually), with break-even on typical closing costs within 12-18 months.

Rate Environment Context

The year-over-year improvements exceeding 100 basis points represent the most significant single-year rate decline period since the pandemic-era rate spike reversed. This dramatic easing reflects:

• Fed policy pivot: Multiple rate cuts implemented and additional easing priced into markets
• Inflation moderation: CPI trends supporting central bank accommodation
• Economic softening: Growth concerns enabling lower Treasury yields
• Bond market rally: Investor demand for fixed-income compressing mortgage spreads

Market Context

Rate Environment: Sub-6.5% Sweet Spot

Current Level Assessment:

The 30-year fixed rate at 6.01% sits comfortably in the 6.0-6.5% range, which historically represents a moderate and sustainable mortgage rate environment:

• Below 6.0%: Exceptionally low (pandemic-era anomaly levels)
• 6.0-6.5%: Healthy, balanced market supporting steady demand ✓ (Current)
• 6.5-7.0%: Elevated but manageable
• Above 7.0%: Challenging affordability constraining demand

Implications for Housing Demand:

Rates in the low-6% range support sustainable housing activity without overheating. This level:

• Enables qualified buyers to afford median-priced homes in most markets
• Provides refinancing opportunities for borrowers above 7%
• Avoids speculative frenzy associated with pandemic-era sub-3% rates
• Maintains healthy inventory turnover without demand shock

The current 6.01% rate achieves a "Goldilocks" scenario—low enough to support market activity but not so compressed as to fuel unsustainable price acceleration.

Refinancing Opportunity Assessment

Who Should Consider Refinancing:

✅ Strong candidates (high savings potential):

• Current rate above 7.0%: 100+ bps improvement, $200-$300/month savings on typical loan
• Recent origination (2024-2025 vintage): Low break-even period on closing costs
• Strong credit/equity: Qualify for best rates without PMI

✅ Moderate candidates (meaningful savings):

• Current rate 6.5-7.0%: 50-100 bps improvement, $100-$200/month savings
• 15+ years remaining: Sufficient time to recoup closing costs
• Stable income: Can document qualifying ratios

❌ Weak candidates (limited benefit):

• Current rate below 6.25%: Minimal improvement potential
• Near loan maturity: Insufficient time to recoup costs
• Recent refinance: Already optimized rate positioning

Break-Even Analysis:

Typical closing costs ($3,000-$6,000 on median loan) divided by monthly savings:

• 100+ bps improvement: 12-18 month break-even (strong)
• 50-100 bps improvement: 24-36 month break-even (moderate)
• <50 bps improvement: 48+ month break-even (weak)

Market Timing Consideration:

With rates at 52-week lows, refinance candidates face a "now or wait" decision:

• Refinance now: Lock in annual lows with certainty
• Wait risk: Rates could compress further (limited downside: ~10-25 bps to next support)
• Wait reward: Potential to capture incrementally better pricing
• Recommendation: Borrowers above 7.0% should act given 100+ bps current improvement and limited downside if rates drop another 10-25 bps

Fed Policy Connection

Rate Movements Signal Continued Easing Expectations:

The dramatic weekly and monthly rate declines—culminating in 52-week lows for benchmark products—suggest bond markets are pricing in:

1. Additional Fed rate cuts: Markets anticipate 25-75 bps additional easing in 2026
2. Sustained policy accommodation: No rate hike concerns on horizon
3. Inflation victory: Confidence that CPI trajectory supports dovish stance
4. Growth concerns: Weakness in economic data enabling Fed flexibility

Treasury Yield Implications:

Mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields with typical spreads of 150-200 bps. The current rate environment implies:

• 10-year Treasury: ~4.0-4.2% (supporting sub-6.5% mortgage rates)
• Compressed mortgage spreads: Lender competition and bond demand supporting tight spreads
• Curve positioning: Market expects Fed funds rate below 10-year yield (normal curve)

Forward Guidance:

Fed commentary emphasizing "data-dependent" approach with "several cuts" priced into 2026 futures supports the current rate trajectory. However, risks remain:

• Inflation resurgence: Sticky services inflation could halt cuts
• Economic resilience: Stronger-than-expected growth might limit easing
• Geopolitical shocks: External events could disrupt bond markets

The mortgage market appears to be pricing in a baseline scenario of 2-3 additional Fed cuts in 2026, with risks balanced between over-optimism (rates rise) and under-pricing dovishness (rates fall further).

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed at 6.01%: Matches 52-week low (0% of range) - most favorable pricing in a year
• 15-year fixed at 5.55%: Also at 52-week low - optimal for fast equity buildup
• Significant daily decline: 30-year down -0.05% (5 bps) marks meaningful single-day improvement
• Broad weekly declines: All products fell, with 15-19 bps drops in conventional fixed products (significant)
• Massive YoY improvements: 30-year down -1.23%, ARM down -1.42% - transformational affordability gains
• All products near lows: Every product within 18% of 52-week low - universally favorable positioning
• Normal 30/15 spread: 0.46% within typical 0.40-0.60% range - balanced product pricing
• Government-backed advantage: FHA/VA offer 30-31 bps savings over conventional - meaningful benefit
• Elevated jumbo premium: 0.33% above normal 0.15-0.30% range - shop aggressively for high-balance loans
• Refinancing opportunity: Borrowers above 7.0% can save $200-$300/month on typical loan
• Fed easing priced in: Market expects 2-3 additional rate cuts in 2026
• Sustainable rate environment: 6.01% supports healthy demand without overheating market

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This is not financial advice. Mortgage rates change frequently and vary by lender,
borrower credit, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors. Always consult with
qualified mortgage professionals.
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