Mortgage Rates — January 5, 2026 — Hold Steady Near 52-Week Lows
Summary
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate holds at 6.20% as of January 5, 2026, unchanged from the previous day and showing minimal weekly movement. Rates remain remarkably close to their 52-week lows across all products, with the benchmark 30-year fixed sitting just 7 basis points above its annual low. Year-over-year improvements remain substantial, with rates down -0.87% for conventional 30-year loans and -1.25% for adjustable-rate mortgages, reflecting a significantly more affordable environment than a year ago.
Current Mortgage Rates Table
| Product | Current | 1-Day | 1-Week | 1-Month | 1-Year | 52W Range | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.20% | +0.00% | +0.00% | -0.10% | -0.87% | 6.13% - 7.26% | Near Low (🟢) |
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 5.75% | -0.01% | +0.01% | -0.04% | -0.72% | 5.60% - 6.59% | Near Low (🟢) |
| 30 Yr. FHA | 5.85% | +0.00% | +0.00% | -0.06% | -0.54% | 5.82% - 6.59% | Near Low (🟢) |
| 30 Yr. VA | 5.87% | +0.00% | +0.00% | -0.06% | -0.54% | 5.85% - 6.60% | Near Low (🟢) |
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 6.37% | +0.00% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.93% | 6.10% - 7.45% | Near Low (🟢) |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.74% | +0.01% | -0.04% | -0.12% | -1.25% | 5.59% - 7.25% | Near Low (🟢) |
Rate Movement Analysis
Daily Changes
Mortgage rates showed minimal volatility on January 5, with most products unchanged from the previous day. The 15 Yr. Fixed edged down -0.01% (1 basis point), while the 7/6 SOFR ARM ticked up +0.01% (1 basis point). These movements fall into the "minimal" category and reflect a stable market with no significant repricing pressure. The benchmark 30 Yr. Fixed at 6.20% remained flat, as did FHA, VA, and Jumbo products.
Weekly Trends
Over the past week, rates have exhibited remarkable stability. The 30 Yr. Fixed is unchanged at +0.00%, while the 15 Yr. Fixed shows a negligible +0.01% uptick. The 7/6 SOFR ARM declined -0.04% (4 basis points), and the 30 Yr. Jumbo fell -0.03% (3 basis points). These minimal movements suggest the market is in a holding pattern, with neither bullish nor bearish forces dominating.
Monthly Trajectory
Looking at the one-month horizon, rates have declined modestly across the board. The 30 Yr. Fixed is down -0.10% (10 basis points), a "moderate" decline under the framework. The 7/6 SOFR ARM shows the strongest monthly improvement at -0.12% (12 basis points), while the 15 Yr. Fixed declined -0.04% (4 basis points). FHA and VA products each fell -0.06%. These movements reflect a gentle easing trend that has slightly improved affordability over the past month.
Year-over-Year Comparison
The year-over-year perspective reveals significant affordability improvements. The 30 Yr. Fixed is down -0.87% from a year ago, representing a "large decline" and meaningful relief for homebuyers and refinancers. The 7/6 SOFR ARM leads all products with a -1.25% annual decline, the strongest improvement in the dataset. The 30 Yr. Jumbo follows at -0.93%, while the 15 Yr. Fixed is down -0.72%. Even FHA and VA products, which typically offer lower rates, have declined -0.54% year-over-year. These substantial declines indicate a far more favorable housing affordability environment compared to early 2025.
Product Spread Analysis
30-Year vs. 15-Year Spread
The spread between the 30 Yr. Fixed (6.20%) and 15 Yr. Fixed (5.75%) stands at 0.45% (45 basis points). This falls comfortably within the typical range of 0.40-0.60% and indicates a normal yield curve relationship. For borrowers choosing between these products, the 15-year option offers a meaningful rate advantage while building equity faster, making it attractive for those who can afford the higher monthly payments.
Conventional vs. Government-Backed Spreads
Government-backed loans offer modest advantages over conventional products:
- 30 Yr. FHA (5.85%) provides a 35 basis point discount versus the conventional 30-year fixed
- 30 Yr. VA (5.87%) offers a 33 basis point savings
These spreads are typical and make FHA and VA products appealing for eligible borrowers, particularly first-time homebuyers (FHA) and veterans (VA) who may benefit from lower down payment requirements alongside competitive rates.
ARM vs. Fixed Spread
The 7/6 SOFR ARM at 5.74% sits 46 basis points below the 30 Yr. Fixed at 6.20%. This substantial spread makes ARMs attractive for borrowers planning shorter homeownership horizons or expecting rates to decline further. The ARM's -1.25% year-over-year decline—the strongest among all products—reflects market expectations of continued Fed easing and potentially lower rates in the medium term.
Jumbo Premium
The 30 Yr. Jumbo at 6.37% carries a 17 basis point premium over the conventional 30-year fixed. This is well within the normal range of 0.15-0.30% (15-30 basis points) and reflects a healthy jumbo lending market without excessive risk premiums. High-balance borrowers face only modest rate penalties compared to conventional loan limits.
52-Week Range Context
All mortgage products are positioned favorably within their 52-week ranges, with rates clustering near annual lows:
30 Yr. Fixed: 6.2% of Range
At 6.20%, the benchmark rate sits just 7 basis points above the 52-week low of 6.13% and 106 basis points below the 52-week high of 7.26%. This represents approximately 6.2% of the total annual range—an exceptionally favorable position for borrowers.
15 Yr. Fixed: 15.2% of Range
The 15 Yr. Fixed at 5.75% is 15 basis points above its annual low of 5.60% and 84 basis points below the high of 6.59%, placing it at 15.2% of the range. Still firmly in "near low" territory, this product offers attractive refinancing opportunities.
30 Yr. FHA: 3.9% of Range
The FHA product at 5.85% sits just 3 basis points above its 52-week low of 5.82%, representing only 3.9% of the annual range. This is the closest to the low among all products, making FHA loans particularly attractive for eligible first-time buyers.
30 Yr. VA: 2.7% of Range
The VA rate at 5.87% is 2 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.85%, placing it at just 2.7% of the annual range—the most favorable positioning in the entire dataset. Veterans have exceptional rate opportunities currently.
30 Yr. Jumbo: 20.0% of Range
The Jumbo rate at 6.37% sits 27 basis points above the annual low of 6.10% and 108 basis points below the high of 7.45%, at 20.0% of the range. While slightly higher in the range than other products, this still represents a favorable environment for high-balance borrowers.
7/6 SOFR ARM: 9.0% of Range
The ARM at 5.74% is 15 basis points above the 52-week low of 5.59% and 151 basis points below the high of 7.25%, placing it at 9.0% of the range. Combined with its -1.25% year-over-year decline, this product offers compelling value for rate-sensitive borrowers.
All products fall into the 🟢 "Favorable" zone (0-25% of range), indicating rates are near their most affordable levels of the past year across the board.
Year-over-Year Affordability Improvement
The year-over-year declines across all products represent substantial affordability improvements:
- 7/6 SOFR ARM: Down -1.25% (125 basis points) – strongest improvement
- 30 Yr. Jumbo: Down -0.93% (93 basis points)
- 30 Yr. Fixed: Down -0.87% (87 basis points)
- 15 Yr. Fixed: Down -0.72% (72 basis points)
- 30 Yr. FHA & VA: Down -0.54% (54 basis points)
For context, an 87 basis point decline on a $400,000 30-year fixed mortgage reduces the monthly principal and interest payment by approximately $200-$230, adding up to $2,400-$2,760 in annual savings. Over the life of a 30-year loan, this represents tens of thousands of dollars in reduced interest costs. These improvements have meaningfully enhanced housing affordability compared to early 2025.
Market Context
Rate Environment: Moderate Territory (6.00-6.50%)
The 30 Yr. Fixed at 6.20% sits in the moderate rate environment, well below the elevated 7%+ levels seen earlier in the 52-week period but above the sub-6% threshold that would represent historically low territory. This environment supports steady housing demand without overheating the market. Buyers face predictable costs, while sellers benefit from consistent activity.
Refinancing Opportunity
Borrowers with existing mortgages above 7.00% have clear refinancing opportunities at current rates. The 87 basis point year-over-year decline suggests that anyone who locked in a rate in early 2025 or earlier may benefit from refinancing. Even those with rates in the 6.75-7.25% range could see meaningful savings, depending on closing costs and loan size.
Fed Policy Implications
The -1.25% year-over-year decline in the 7/6 SOFR ARM—which is tied to short-term rates and Fed policy—strongly suggests market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. While mortgage rates are more directly influenced by 10-year Treasury yields than the Fed Funds Rate, the ARM's outperformance indicates market participants anticipate an easing cycle. Stable or declining rates in recent weeks suggest the market has largely priced in near-term Fed moves, with no major surprises expected in the immediate future.
Housing Demand Outlook
With rates near 52-week lows and showing minimal daily/weekly volatility, the environment is conducive to steady housing activity. Buyers have visibility and confidence that rates won't spike suddenly, while sellers can expect consistent demand. The year-over-year improvements have brought previously sidelined buyers back into the market, supporting transaction volumes.
Key Takeaways
- 30-year fixed at 6.20%: Unchanged daily, holding steady in a low-volatility environment
- Near annual lows across the board: All products positioned in the 🟢 favorable zone (0-25% of 52-week range)
- 30-year fixed just 7 bps above low: At 6.2% of annual range, rates are exceptionally close to 52-week lows
- Significant YoY affordability improvement: 30-year fixed down -0.87% from a year ago
- ARMs lead year-over-year declines: 7/6 SOFR ARM down -1.25%, reflecting Fed rate cut expectations
- Normal product spreads: 30 vs 15-year spread at 0.45% within typical 0.40-0.60% range; jumbo premium at 17 bps is healthy
- Government-backed advantage: FHA/VA offer 33-35 bps savings over conventional, with VA at just 2.7% of its 52-week range (most favorable positioning)
- Refinancing opportunity: Borrowers with rates above 7.00% can achieve meaningful savings at current levels
- Stable rate environment: Minimal daily/weekly volatility suggests predictable conditions for homebuyers and refinancers
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This is not financial advice. Mortgage rates change frequently and vary by lender, borrower credit, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors. Always consult with qualified mortgage professionals.
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