Stock Market News — May 13, 2026 - Morning Update (last 12 hours, Pacific Time)

Executive Summary

U.S. equities pushed to record highs Wednesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were lifted by a powerful tech and semiconductor rally, fueled by optimism surrounding President Trump's visit to China with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in tow. Hot producer price data briefly weighed on sentiment but was ultimately overshadowed by geopolitical tailwinds and a flood of bullish analyst calls across the chip sector. European markets closed broadly higher, while the Iran-Ukraine conflict continued to disrupt global oil refining output — a slow-burning risk that markets are not fully pricing in.

Sentiment Breakdown

Net Sentiment: Bullish — Record highs, broad analyst upgrades, and AI deal flow dominate the tape; inflation and geopolitical risks are present but not derailing the rally.

Top Market-Moving Headlines

1. 🟢 Macro/Equities | S&P, Nasdaq hit record highs on tech boost amid optimism over Trump's China trip
   Market Impact: The headline macro story of the day — risk-on sentiment prevailed despite hot PPI data, with tech leading the charge to new all-time highs.

2. 🟢 Semiconductors | AI chip stocks surge again as Nvidia's Huang joins Trump on visit to China
   Market Impact: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang accompanying Trump to Beijing sent chip stocks surging in premarket and sustained gains throughout the session.

3. 🟢 Semiconductors | Tower Semi forecasts upbeat quarterly revenue, signs $1.3 billion in AI chip deals
   Market Impact: Tower Semiconductor surged +20% after landing $1.3B in AI chip deals and issuing above-estimate Q2 revenue guidance — a concrete data point on AI demand.

4. 🟢 Semiconductors | Evercore positive on AMD and ARM citing market share report
   Market Impact: Evercore's reiterated Outperform ratings on AMD, ARM, and Intel add institutional conviction to the chip rally already underway.

5. 🟢 AI/Cloud | AI cloud firm Nebius reports near eightfold revenue surge, shares jump
   Market Impact: Nebius surged +17% premarket on a ~8x quarterly revenue jump, providing hard evidence that AI cloud infrastructure spending is accelerating rapidly.

6. 🟢 Semiconductors | Marvell Technology stock surging today — BofA upgrade
   Market Impact: Marvell surged more than 10% after a sharply bullish BofA note, adding to the broad semiconductor momentum.

7. 🟢 Energy/IPO | Fervo Energy raises $1.89 billion in US IPO, indicating open at $35 vs. $27 IPO price
   Market Impact: The geothermal IPO drew 15x oversubscription and opened 30% above its IPO price — the hottest market debut of the year so far.

8. 🟢 Defense/Private Markets | US defense firm Anduril raises $5 billion, doubling its valuation to $61 billion
   Market Impact: A landmark private funding round signals continued investor appetite for defense tech, with implications for listed peers like Palantir and L3Harris.

9. 🟢 Autos/Energy | Ford shares jump 6% as Morgan Stanley hails CATL-backed energy business
   Market Impact: Morgan Stanley's positive commentary on Ford's energy unit — backed by CATL — reframes Ford as an energy play, not just an automaker.

10. 🟢 Semiconductors | ON Semiconductor stock surging +10.48%, touches fresh high
    Market Impact: ON Semi's double-digit surge extends the broad chip sector rally, with the stock hitting a new intraday high on strong momentum.

11. 🟢 Macro/China | Nvidia CEO's Beijing trip lifts Shanghai stocks to 11-year high
    Market Impact: Chinese equities hit their best level in over a decade, reflecting the market's optimism that Trump-Xi talks could ease tech trade tensions.

12. 🟢 Morgan Stanley | Morgan Stanley ups S&P 500 price target to 8,300 on robust earnings
    Market Impact: A major Wall Street firm raising its S&P target provides a sentiment anchor and could attract further institutional inflows.

13. 🔴 Retail/Consumer | Birkenstock misses quarterly sales estimates, flags Middle East hit — stock tumbles 11.81%
    Market Impact: A rare consumer discretionary miss; the Middle East conflict is now visibly hitting premium brand revenues — a warning for the sector.

14. 🔴 Tech/Layoffs | LinkedIn planning to lay off 5% of staff in latest tech-sector cuts
    Market Impact: Microsoft's LinkedIn joins the wave of Big Tech restructuring, signaling that even profitable platforms are prioritizing AI-driven efficiency over headcount.

15. 🔴 Retail | Walmart cuts 1,000 roles to simplify operations
    Market Impact: The world's largest retailer trimming corporate staff underscores a broader corporate cost-cutting trend that could weigh on consumer sentiment.

16. 🔴 Energy/Geopolitics | Iran, Ukraine wars deliver worst hit in years to oil refining output
    Market Impact: Refinery attacks are creating a structural supply disruption in refined products — a slow-moving but significant inflation risk for airlines and logistics.

17. 🟢 AI/Fintech | Anthropic launches Claude for Small Business; PayPal partnership announced
    Market Impact: Anthropic's SMB push and PayPal integration expand the AI monetization story beyond hyperscalers into mainstream commerce.

18. 🟢 Semiconductors/M&A | Arm Holdings and SoftBank approached Cerebras Systems with acquisition offer ahead of IPO
    Market Impact: A potential Cerebras acquisition by Arm/SoftBank would be a landmark AI chip deal, signaling SoftBank's aggressive push to consolidate the AI stack.

19. 🔴 Healthcare | UnitedHealth stock falls after Medicare enrollment pause
    Market Impact: The Trump administration's halt on new Medicare home health enrollments adds regulatory uncertainty to an already-pressured UNH stock.

20. 🟢 Macro/Strategy | HSBC's Kettner stays max bullish on stocks — "Buy the rumor, buy the fact"
    Market Impact: HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist holding maximum risk-on positioning reinforces the bullish macro consensus heading into next week's major earnings.

Market Implications

The semiconductor trade is the market's engine — but watch for turbulence. The chip sector is firing on all cylinders: Tower Semi's $1.3B AI deals, Marvell's BofA upgrade, ON Semi's fresh highs, and Nvidia's Beijing optics all point to sustained institutional demand. However, BTIG's Krinsky has flagged an "equal and opposite" reversal risk, and Daiwa trimmed AMD to Outperform after its substantial rally. With Nvidia reporting May 20 and a potential ±5.8% move priced in, next week is a high-stakes moment for the entire sector.

Geopolitics is a two-sided coin. Trump's China trip is providing a near-term risk-on catalyst — Shanghai stocks at 11-year highs and AI chip names surging are the clearest expressions of this. But the Iran-Ukraine refinery disruption is quietly building an inflationary undercurrent in energy markets, with jet fuel already at $150–$200/barrel. Airlines are cutting outlooks and hiking fares. If the Iran situation escalates, the energy cost shock could become the story that derails the tech rally.

Next week's earnings slate is a wall of risk. Nvidia (±5.8%), Target (±7.7%), Intuit (±8.3%), Elf Beauty (±13%), and TJX (±4%) all report around May 20. The market is priced for perfection — Morgan Stanley's new 8,300 S&P target and HSBC's max-bullish stance leave little room for disappointment. Any earnings miss from Nvidia in particular could trigger the sector rotation that BTIG is already warning about.

Vlad's Key Takeaways

• 🟢 $NVDA — Jensen Huang joins Trump in Beijing; stock gains and Shanghai hits 11-year high on trade optimism.
• 🟢 $TSEM (Tower Semi) — Surged +20% on $1.3B in AI chip deals and above-estimate Q2 guidance; most concrete AI demand signal of the day.
• 🟢 FRVO (Fervo Energy) — IPO priced at $27, opened at $35 with 15x oversubscription; geothermal energy is having a moment.
• 🟢 $MRVL (Marvell) — Surged 10%+ on BofA upgrade; custom AI silicon thesis gaining Wall Street traction.
• 🟢 $ON (ON Semi) — +10.48% to fresh highs; broad chip rally has legs beyond just Nvidia names.
• 🟢 $F (Ford) — +6% on Morgan Stanley's bullish take on CATL-backed energy business; EV narrative shifting to energy.
• 🟢 Anduril — Raised $5B at $61B valuation; defense tech private market is booming with public market implications.
• 🟢 Nebius — ~8x quarterly revenue surge; AI cloud infrastructure demand is real and accelerating.
• 🟢 $WOLF (Wolfspeed) — +20%+ on Citrini Research highlight; seventh consecutive up session.
• 🟢 $ENPH / $SEDG — Solar stocks surged on Nextpower earnings beat; sector rotation into clean energy tech.
• 🔴 $BIRK (Birkenstock) — -11.81% on sales miss; Middle East conflict is now a tangible revenue headwind for consumer brands.
• 🔴 LinkedIn (MSFT) — 5% workforce cut planned; AI-driven restructuring accelerating across Big Tech.
• 🔴 $WMT (Walmart) — 1,000 corporate roles cut; largest retailer is streamlining ahead of potential tariff-driven cost pressures.
• 🔴 $UNH (UnitedHealth) — Falls on Medicare enrollment pause; regulatory risk is mounting for managed care.
• 🔴 $WIX (Wix.com) — -26% on steep Q1 earnings miss; a cautionary tale as AI disrupts web-building platforms.
• 🟡 $INTC / $AMD / $ARM — Evercore reiterates Outperform on all three; market share data supports the bull case but Daiwa trimmed AMD.
• 🟡 $SSTK (Shutterstock) — $35M FTC settlement over subscription practices; regulatory scrutiny of subscription models is intensifying.
• 🟡 Inflation/Rates — Hot PPI data reinforced "rates on hold" expectations; Fed has no near-term cover to cut.
• 🟡 $MS (Morgan Stanley) — Raised S&P 500 target to 8,300 and MSCI Europe target to 2,700; bullish but sets a high bar for earnings.
• 🔴 Oil Refining — Iran/Ukraine wars causing worst refinery output hit in years; energy inflation risk is underpriced by equity markets.

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