Earnings Reports — September 29, 2026 — Midday Update — Last 16 Hours (Pacific Time)

Executive Summary

The earnings session leaning into Wednesday's open is broadly constructive, with most reporting companies delivering beats on EPS, revenue, or both. CarMax and Carnival Corp stand out as the headline movers among actual results, while a wave of previews signals investor anxiety around AI infrastructure durability, memory chip demand, and consumer staples margins. Guidance upgrades from Hapag-Lloyd, Pepco, and Codan add an international tailwind to the session's overall tone.

Earnings Performance Breakdown

Actual results only (previews/outlooks excluded from classification):

Summary (actual results only):

Previews/Outlooks (not classified — results pending): Concentrix, Jabil, Micron, FactSet, Conagra, Cal-Maine

Notable Earnings Reports

🟢 CarMax (KMX) — Double Beat

• EPS of $1.16 vs. estimate of $0.73 — a $0.43 beat; revenue also topped estimates
• Stock rose over 2% on the results
• A standout surprise magnitude for the session; signals resilience in used-auto retail demand

🟢 Carnival Corp (CCL) — Double Beat

• EPS of $1.43 vs. estimate of $1.35 — an $0.08 beat; revenue topped estimates
• No specific stock reaction percentage provided
• Cruise demand continues to hold firm heading into the off-season

🟢 AAR Corp (AIR) — Double Beat

• EPS of $1.49 vs. estimate of $1.31 — an $0.18 beat; revenue topped estimates
• No stock reaction mentioned
• Aviation services demand appears robust

🟢 Codan (CDA) — Raised Outlook

• Raised H1 profit outlook; shares surged 19% to a record high
• The largest single stock move in this session's reports
• Australian communications technology company delivering outsized upside surprise

⚪ Close Brothers (CBRO) — Mixed

• Underlying profit beat consensus despite reporting a full-year loss; dividend suspended due to motor finance uncertainty
• Stock jumped 11% — market rewarding the underlying beat and clarity on the loss
• A nuanced result: headline loss masks operational resilience

⚪ Jefferies Financial (JEF) — Mixed

• Adjusted EPS beat estimates; Fixed Income and Asset Management revenues declined
• Stock slipped 3%
• Investment banking strength offset by weakness in two key revenue lines

Sector Analysis

🟢 Strength:

• Consumer Discretionary / Auto Retail: CarMax's massive $0.43 EPS beat signals stronger-than-expected consumer spending on used vehicles
• Travel & Leisure: Carnival Corp's beat reinforces continued cruise sector momentum
• Aviation Services: AAR's solid beat points to sustained demand in aircraft maintenance and support
• Communications Technology: Codan's record-high surge reflects strong niche demand in its segment
• Shipping / Logistics: Hapag-Lloyd's second guidance raise of 2026 suggests container shipping rates remain supportive

🟡 Mixed:

• Financial Services: Jefferies shows a split picture — investment banking holding up, but Fixed Income and Asset Management dragging. Close Brothers' 11% pop despite a headline loss reflects how much the market had already priced in the bad news
• Beverages / Consumer Staples: A.G. Barr's 8.5% revenue growth is solid, but supply disruptions and maintained (not raised) guidance temper enthusiasm

🔴 Watch List (previews, not yet reported):

• Memory Chips (Micron): Investors are testing whether the AI-driven memory boom has legs — a critical read for the semiconductor sector
• AI Infrastructure (Jabil): The AI supply chain faces a durability test; Jabil's results will be a bellwether
• Consumer Staples (Conagra, Cal-Maine): Freight cost pressures and weak egg pricing set a cautious tone ahead of these reports
• Financial Data / AI (FactSet): The question of whether AI momentum can offset margin pressure is a theme worth watching across the sector

Biggest Movers

Biggest EPS Surprise (magnitude): CarMax at +$0.43 above estimates leads the session among reported results.

Market Implications

The breadth of beats — particularly CarMax's outsized EPS surprise — suggests the consumer is holding up better than feared in at least some discretionary categories. Used-auto demand and cruise bookings both pointing upward reinforces a picture of a consumer that hasn't fully retreated, even amid ongoing macro uncertainty.

The international picture adds nuance: Hapag-Lloyd raising guidance again, Codan surging to record highs, and Pepco announcing a €400M buyback all point to pockets of genuine earnings momentum outside the U.S. The Close Brothers situation — stock up 11% on a headline loss — is a reminder that markets trade on expectations, not just outcomes.

The real market-moving events of the next 24 hours sit in the preview pile: Micron's memory results will test whether AI-driven chip demand is durable or peaking, Jabil will offer a read on AI infrastructure supply chains, and Conagra/Cal-Maine will set the tone for consumer staples under cost pressure. Investors should treat today's beats as constructive but incomplete — the heavier data is still incoming.

Key Takeaways

• 🟢 CarMax (KMX) — A $0.43 EPS beat is one of the largest surprise magnitudes of the session; used-auto retail is stronger than expected
• 🟢 Carnival Corp (CCL) — Cruise demand remains resilient; another beat reinforces the travel sector's post-pandemic durability
• 🟢 AAR Corp (AIR) — Aviation services delivering; $0.18 EPS beat with a revenue top suggests solid underlying demand
• 🟢 Codan (CDA) — A 19% single-day surge to a record high is the session's most dramatic mover; watch for follow-through
• 🟢 Hapag-Lloyd — Raising guidance again in 2026 signals container shipping conditions remain more favorable than feared
• 🟢 Pepco Group — Raised FY26 outlook plus a €400M buyback is a shareholder-friendly double signal
• ⚪ Close Brothers (CBRO) — Up 11% on a loss year; the market had priced in worse — underlying profit beat is what matters here
• 🔴 Jefferies Financial (JEF) — Fixed Income and Asset Management weakness dragged shares -3%; a cautionary note for diversified financials
• 🔴 Vail Resorts (MTN) — Beating Q4 estimates wasn't enough; weak forward pass sales are the story investors care about
• 🟡 Micron (MU) — Tonight's report is the session's highest-stakes event; memory boom durability is the question for the entire AI trade
• 🟡 Jabil — AI infrastructure supply chain health gets tested Wednesday morning; results will ripple across tech hardware names
• 🟡 Conagra & Cal-Maine — Freight costs and weak egg pricing set a low bar, but guidance language will matter more than the beat/miss

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